Reminder: I’ll be on vacation the week of March 2nd. My plan is to have a post that Monday, then nothing else the rest of the week. Even if there’s breaking news, it will have to wait until I get back. I’m not sure I’ll actually be able to do it, but I intend to turn off my brain and forget about baseball and the Yankees for a few days. In the meantime, Spring Training games are just a few days away. Hooray for that. Here now is today’s post.
1. Spring Training news and notes. As promised, here is the Grapefruit League broadcast schedule. That is not complete. We’re still waiting on a few teams/networks to announce their spring broadcasts. I’ll update the spreadsheet as they come in. The good news is Friday’s Grapefruit League opener will be televised, as will (at least) the next nine games after that. Here’s the latest from Tampa.
Cole speaks
It has been a good long time since we last saw Gerrit Cole on a mound doing something that resembled actual baseball work. Since Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, basically. He has thrown several bullpens the last few weeks and did so again last Friday, this time in front of interested observers. Cole is experimenting with an old school hands over the head delivery (video via Chris Kirschner) …
… and said he’s considering taking it into the season. “I generally just like the rhythm of it,” he told Bryan Hoch. More importantly, Cole said his elbow feels good – “It feels different than it has been in quite some time,” he told Hoch – and also reiterated there’s no rushing this. No matter how good he looks in bullpens in February and March, it’s a 14-18 month process, so figure a return sometime in June.
"We've had a lot of discussions between myself, the Yankees, Dr. ElAttrache. With a full Tommy John reconstruction surgery, the target's always between 14 and 18 months,” Cole said (video). “That really hasn't changed. That's what the research says. That's what the comps that we've looked back at says and that's where it's always been."
As expected, Clarke Schmidt was put on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Paul Goldschmidt, which means the Yankees will do one of two things the next time they need a 40-man spot: 60-day IL Cole or DFA someone. Carlos Rodón and Anthony Volpe are expected back sometime in April or early May, so they’re not 60-day IL candidates. It’s a DFA or 60-day IL Cole whenever a 40-man spot is needed.
I can see both sides of this argument. The earliest a 60-day IL player can be activated is Sunday, May 24th. If the target is June, then sure, put Cole on the 60-day IL when you need a 40-man spot. The other side is putting Cole on the regular old 15-day IL leaves open the possibility of an earlier than expected return, even if it’s only a small possibility. If you have to DFA Osvaldo Bido or Jorbit Vivas to leave that door open, so be it.
We’ll get the answer to the 60-day IL question soon. Odds are the Yankees will make a waiver claim or a minor trade or something this spring. If Cole goes on the 60-day IL, okay, June it is. But, if it’s a DFA, then we’ll know the Yankees are keeping the door open for Cole to return sometime in May. If it costs you a bottom of the 40-man player, so be it. Getting 1-2(-3) extra starts of Cole could be worth it.
I do worry the Yankees are counting too much on a 35-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery, but it is possible Gerrit Cole comes back as Gerrit Cole, and is an instant ace. He’s a pitching savant and the baseline is so high that even some decline in skills leaves him as an above-average starter. For now, Cole is on the mend and still months away from a return. A roster decision is coming soon-ish though, and will give us insight into when the Yankees truly expect him back.
“I’m not going to put anything past Gerrit Cole,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “He’s so good at his craft, and the success rate on these surgeries is usually pretty good. Everyone’s different, but I’m not going to put any ceilings on what Gerrit could do.”
The Domínguez situation
Unless the Yankees are willing to use Ben Rice as their backup catcher or Amed Rosario as their backup shortstop, there’s no room for Jasson Domínguez on the bench. Brian Cashman told John Flanigan that “I would conceive that it’s in our best interest to get him everyday reps,” meaning Domínguez could be sent to Triple-A. There has been trade speculation too. Since even before Cody Bellinger re-signed.
"Obviously, I hear all of that,” Domínguez told Gary Phillips about the trade/demotion rumors. “But I try not to focus on that because there's Spring Training coming, and this is baseball. A lot of things can happen. At the end of the day, depending on the situation, they gotta do what's best for the team. Whatever decision they make, I'll be ready for."
On one hand, sending the just turned 23-year-old Domínguez to Scranton to work on his defense and his right-handed swing, and to just play everyday in general, is a fine idea. On the other hand, Domínguez is a career .325/.391/.495 (131 wRC+) hitter with 17.0 K% in Triple-A, and last year’s 103 wRC+ (116 wRC+ vs. RHP) wasn’t bad at all. Isn’t there some risk of stagnation? Yeah, there absolutely is.
I’m of the opinion that Domínguez is at the point where he needs to play in the big leagues to get better. That is the challenge he needs to continue his development. If you want him to hit big league lefties, he has to face big league lefties. And if you want him to catch Major League fly balls/line drives in big league ballparks with third decks, there’s only place he can do that. I think he’s outgrown Triple-A.
I understand why this is a thing but I would not sweat Domínguez’s situation even a tiny little bit right now. Chances are he will spend most of this season on the MLB roster. I’d bet on it being closer to the full season than half the season too. There will be injuries, underperformance, and potentially other reasons that could necessitate not just putting Dominguez on the roster, but playing him regularly.
Knock on wood, the Yankees are in “too many good players” territory, and I do think Domínguez is a good player. A flawed one, for sure, but a player with obvious physical gifts who more than held his own at the plate last year. The Yankees owe it to themselves to see whether he can be a long-term piece. If he has to go to Triple-A, then he has to go to Triple-A, though I’m not sure he’ll actually benefit much from it.
“Coming into camp, I feel pretty good,” Domínguez told Hoch. “I feel like I’ve improved in my defense and my righty side, too. (Winter ball) was different. It was a lot of players with a lot of experience, and I think that helped me a lot, to have another mentality about defense and hitting. There are a lot of philosophies about that … I’m going to do my best to get the best results that I can get. That’s what I’m focusing on right now.”
Who’s doing what
The whole squad is in Tampa. Position players reported Sunday – “I think we’re good,” Boone told Phillips when asked about new/offseason position player injuries – and we’re a few days away from actual baseball being played. Here, for the sake of posterity, is who threw live BP since Friday’s post (this isn’t a complete list, just what I’ve been able to pick up):
Friday: David Bednar, Jake Bird, Fernando Cruz, Brent Headrick, Ben Hess
Saturday: Paul Blackburn, Kyle Carr, Bradley Hanner, Travis MacGregor, Will Warren, Cade Winquest, Ryan Yarbrough
Sunday: Angel Chivilli, Max Fried, Tim Hill, Elmer Rodríguez, Ryan Weathers
Monday: Bednar, Bird, Kervin Castro, Carson Coleman, Camilo Doval, Drake Fellows, Carlos Lagrange
Aaron Judge hit Fried with a line drive Sunday (video), though all is okay. Thank goodness for that. Hoch says Weathers was up to 98 mph on the scoreboard, which displays Statcast data. For a February live BP, that’s crazy velocity. Weathers came out throwing gas last spring too, then missed two months with a flexor strain and three months with a lat strain. Maybe dial it down a bit in February, Ryan?
“I don’t feel like I’m trying to throw hard, so I think my delivery’s just in a good spot right now. I think everything’s connecting really well. Hopefully I keep throwing like that,” Weathers told Greg Joyce. “… I think just trusting my stuff in the middle of the plate (is something I want to improve). I have stuff moving everywhere, so it’s getting in the zone and letting my stuff play in the zone. The more I can get in advantage counts, I’ll be able to get more outs.”
I mentioned this a few weeks ago: Step outside the context of a meh offseason, and Weathers is a really exciting addition. It’s premium stuff (especially for a lefty) and a history of throwing strikes. It’s really not all that different from what Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal looked like before their breakouts. I don’t expect that from Weathers, but you can see the vision. Definitely excited to see him in games soon.
(In other “that’s too much velocity for February” news, Lagrange hit 102.6 mph Monday, per Hoch. He’s built up to three innings. Good chance we’ll see my No. 2 prospect in a game this coming weekend.)
Anyway, the starting pitchers are lined up Fried, Luis Gil, placeholder, Warren, Weathers in that order based on the live BP days. That’s a Cam Schlittler-sized placeholder. He’s dealing with this supposedly minor back inflammation and is expected to throw off a mound Tuesday, as in today. Still an entire spring to play, but if you’re looking for clues about how the Yankees will align their five starters, there it is.
Sunday’s live BP lines Rodríguez up to pitch Friday’s Grapefruit League opener. I hope we see Winquest that day too. If not, well, we’ll see him soon enough. Fried and Weathers also line up to pitch Friday, but I can’t imagine the Yankees will send either on the road this early in camp. They’ll stay in Tampa and throw another live BP. Early March is typically when the big league starters begin appearing in games.
Miscellany
Boone said Judge will play 4-5 of the first nine Grapefruit League games before leaving for the World Baseball Classic, so it sounds like an every other day thing. Figure the other WBC hitters (Goldschmidt, Rosario, José Caballero, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells) will be on a similar schedule. I wonder if they’ll play a full nine innings before leaving? Veterans usually don’t do that until the very end of camp, if they do it at all … As mentioned, Schmidt was placed on the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot for Goldschmidt, whose signing is official. One year, $4M, plus an additional $500,000 each for 400, 450, 500, and 550 plate appearances, per Ron Blum. If it is truly a reduced role, Goldschmidt won’t hit those bonuses, but it’s a long season … Volpe started his hitting work Monday. Only dry swings for now. It’ll be some time before he’s able to hit against actual pitchers (insert joke here) … Rice had a little neck thing and didn’t swing a bat for a few days. He caught bullpens in the interim and was back hitting Sunday, so all is good … Oswaldo Cabrera is hitting in live BP, though he’ll be held out of the first few spring games as he builds up following last year’s ankle injury … Chase Hampton, my No. 9 prospect, threw what he told Joyce was his eighth bullpen Saturday (video). He had his Tommy John surgery late last February, so he’s just about a year out. Figure he’s on a similar timeline as Cole. Cole is expected to begin facing hitters in a few weeks. I assume the same is true for Hampton … Ryan McMahon’s sick and has been held out of workouts. Give it a few days and he'll be good to go … And finally, Yanquiel Fernández cleared waivers and is still with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. He got DFAed after the Max Schuemann trade last week. That is all the outstanding business. No pending DFAs or signings. Fernández will be in camp as a non-roster invitee. There are 72 players in big league camp now.
2. Yankees bring in Montero. In terms of name value, the Yankees made their most significant bullpen addition of the offseason last week. They signed righty Rafael Montero to a minor league deal that will pay him $1.85M in the big leagues, per Héctor Gómez. You may remember Montero’s MLB debut against the Yankees in 2014. What a fun series that was. Montero, Jacob deGrom, and Chase Whitley all made their big leagues debuts, Masahiro Tanaka threw a four-hit shutout, and Dellin Betances did this.
"I've talked about our pitching depth, all the way to the starters to non-roster invites," Aaron Boone told Tom Hanslin when asked about Montero. "Bringing a guy like Montero in, with obviously a ton of experience, had a lot of success, had some success last year. There's some things we really liked he was doing last year. Maybe some small adjustments we can make to help him."
Montero, 35, went from the Astros to the Braves to the Tigers in a series of minor trades last year. He had a 4.48 ERA (4.13 FIP and 3.58 xERA) overall, though the under-the-hood stuff was promising enough:
The 14.6 BB% is way too high, though Montero has been closer to a 9 BB% most of his career, so maybe that was a one-year blip? The 22.9 K% and 48.7 GB% are more in line with Montero’s usual. For most of his career he’s been a league average strikeout/walk guy with a knack for ground balls. When he limits exit velocity, Montero’s typically effective, though that wasn’t the case last season.
Montero really cut back on his mid-90s sinker last season and used a four-seamer as his primary fastball. That goes against what the Yankees usually do, though not always. Montero threw his upper-80s splitter half the time and yeah, that sounds Yankees-ish. There’s also a mid-80s slider. The Yankees will change something with Montero. What exactly, I do not know, but something. Take it to the bank.
I think there’s a real chance Montero makes the Opening Day roster, and I’d go as far to call it likely right now, on Feb. 17th, before a single Grapefruit League game has been played. The middle of the bullpen is unsettled and he’s a veteran dude who does things the Yankees like (spam splitters, get grounders, etc.). The bullpen looks like this right now:
High LeverageRHP David BednarRHP Fernando CruzRHP Camilo DovalLHP Tim Hill
The Mushy MiddleRHP Angel ChivilliRHP Jake BirdRHP Yerry De Los SantosLHP Brent HeadrickRHP Rafael Montero (minor league deal)Various non-roster invitees
Low Leverage/Multi-InningRHP Paul BlackburnLHP Ryan Yarbrough
Rule 5 Draft pickRHP Cade Winquest
There’s a world where the Yankees win the Spring Training health lottery and seven Opening Day bullpen spots are accounted for (Bednar, Blackburn, Cruz, Doval, Hill, Winquest, Yarbrough), leaving one spot for the Mushy Middle guys. If it happens, we should celebrate. Spring Training is peak pitcher injury season though, plus Winquest is no lock to stick even though I do think the Yankees want to keep him.
Even if everything goes well, I don’t think you have to try hard to see Montero getting the last bullpen spot over Bird, Headrick, et al. Montero’s service time means his minor league contract automatically includes an opt out at the end of Spring Training. If Montero looks good/interesting enough in camp, the Yankees can put him on the Opening Day roster, option everyone else to Triple-A, and preserve their depth.
That isn’t to say Montero would step into a high leverage role. I just don’t think you have to squint all that hard to see him getting a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. Montero is about as good as it gets as far as a pitcher with considerable big league time on a non-roster deal. Hopefully he pitches well in the coming weeks and forces the Yankees into a decision. If not, then no big deal. Nothing lost.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Great moments in hyperbole: Wilber Sánchez reports the Yankees have a $1.6M agreement for the 2027 international signing period with Venezuelan C Sebastian Acuña, who “possesses the power of Aaron Judge, the speed of Elly De La Cruz, and the defense of Yadier Molina.” So, great news, the Yankees are signing the best player ever. Only cost them $1.6M too! … And finally, here’s a cool one: The Yankees signed Hungarian C Marko Morua as an international amateur free agent, per Charlie Meyer. He’s the first ever player to sign with an MLB team out of Hungary. Jeff Duda says the Yankees gave Morua over $500,000, so they must really like him. The Yankees signed Dutch LHP Tijn Fredrikze a few weeks ago. He was the first player they signed out of Europe since 2013. Now they’ve signed two in about a month. Gotta start somewhere if you want to make inroads.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)