Looking for a series win Thursday, the Yankees had Max Fried on the mound against a bullpen game, and received home runs from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Ben Rice. They lost by seven. This team is going through it hard right now and the bullpen is beginning to look as bad as I feared. I long for the days when the Yankees had peak Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and David Robertson in the bullpen together. Let’s get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. Oswald Peraza returned to the Bronx and had his revenge series, going 3-for-3 with a homer and a walk Tuesday, then 2-for-4 with a double, a homer, and a walk Thursday. Where was that guy when the Yankees needed him the last two years? The series took Peraza from .214/.267/.405 (88 wRC+) to .269/.345/.558 (153 wRC+). Gotta love those April sample sizes.
“A lot of good memories here,” Peraza told Mark Sanchez after Tuesday’s game. “… It’s business. It’s baseball. Now I’m with the Angels and enjoy every day.”
Peraza had his un-revenge game Wednesday. He and Zach Neto miscommunicated and allowed Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s routine popup fall in, putting the ninth inning rally into motion. The Yankees straight up got lucky there, but Austin Wells following with a walk and José Caballero poking a two-strike, two-run, walk-off double was no luck (videos). That part of the rally was earned.
The Yankees started the season historically well on the run prevention side. They were the third team in history to allow only eight runs in their first seven games. In the 12 games since, they’ve allowed 68 runs, or 5.7 per game. The Yankees are still a top 10 team with a 3.68 ERA (3.48 FIP and 3.45 xERA), but yeah, the crash back to Earth has been swift and painful. Hopefully Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón come back good as new.
If not for the Neto/Peraza drop and Jordan Romano, the Yankees probably get swept this week. You can’t take that stuff away though. It happened. But it’s ugly baseball right now. The Yankees are 4-8 in their last 12 games and they took the lead in the eighth inning or later in each of the four wins. It’s been too long since the Yankees had an easy one. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.
Cabby in the Clutch
At least one of the bottom of the order guys is getting his act together. Caballero won Wednesday’s game with his two-run walk-off double and he’s now 8-for-23 (.348) with three doubles and a homer in his last six games. That's raised his season batting line to .222/.269/.333 (72 wRC+), so he still has a ways to go to get to respectability. There’s at least some positive momentum here. Caballero’s starting to hit.
Caballero has not been good overall but he has been insanely clutch. He’s 4-for-10 with two doubles, two walks, and no strikeouts with runners in scoring position. He’s 5-for-9 with three doubles in high leverage situations. Even with that .222/.269/.333 (72 wRC+) line, Caballero leads all hitters in win probability added:
1. José Caballero: +1.552. Yandy Díaz: +1.323. Mike Trout: +1.29 (+0.97 against the Yankees)4. Brice Turang: +1.275. Dom Smith: +1.12
Caballero also leads all hitters with +1.64 Clutch, more than double second place Jackson Merrill (+0.80). Clutch compares players to themselves, not the rest of the league. It measures how a player performs in high leverage situations compared to other situations. Caballero hasn’t hit much overall, but the hits he has gotten have been enormous.
Anthony Volpe started a rehab assignment this week and I assume Randal Grichuk will go* once Volpe’s ready to return. Caballero hasn’t given the Yankees any reason to debate him vs. Volpe at shortstop, but there’s an opportunity to grab third base playing time away from Ryan McMahon, who continues to look hopeless. For now, Caballero is showing signs of life, and boy does the bottom of the order need it.
* Assuming Grichuk goes for Volpe, that means Caballero and Amed Rosario are the backup outfielders.
On Rice vs. LHP
The Yankees have faced five lefties in the last seven games* and Ben Rice was not in the starting lineup against three of the five lefties. Rice has been awesome (.327/.457/.709 and 220 wRC+) and the offense has been struggling, so there was much consternation when he was out of the lineup. Paul Goldschmidt reached base multiple times in two of his three starts, which of course did nothing to stop the Rice complaints.
“He’s going to play against lefties,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about Rice. “… Because Goldy brings such a powerful presence at the top of the order against lefties, I just want to keep that going as well. But having the ability to cherry-pick when I fire Benny Rice in a big spot, I like that.”
* That includes lefty opener Brent Suter on Thursday.
I have a few thoughts about this. One, Rice really isn’t that good against lefties (yes, I know he took a lefty deep Thursday). I get that he has to face lefties to improve against them, but even last year’s 104 wRC+ against lefties came with a .271 OBP and 27.7 K%. Do you absolutely have to get a 104 wRC+ guy into the lineup? Nah. Rice has been so good this year in part because the Yankees are sheltering him against lefties.
(Rice has started 15 of 19 games this season and has five plate appearances in the games he didn’t start. He’s appeared in every game but one. He’s playing plenty. I can’t believe I’m defending Boone smh.)
Two, Goldschmidt serves one purpose on this team. He’s here to play first base against lefties. If he’s not doing that, he’s a waste of a roster spot. The Yankees clearly believe he has something left in the tank, and maybe he does! Goldschmidt is slugging .500 in his limited time with excellent under-the-hood plate discipline numbers. I didn’t like the Goldschmidt re-signing, but he’s here. It’s April. He has to play against lefties.
Three, Giancarlo Stanton will be in the lineup against every lefty, so the only way to get Goldschmidt and Rice in the lineup is putting Rice behind the plate. That’s not happening. Boone and the Yankees can say whatever they want about believing in Rice behind the plate, but he played one inning at catcher in Spring Training. If they truly believed in him at catcher, they would’ve prepared him (much) more to do it.
I’m okay with this. Rice is a poor defensive catcher and the last thing the Yankees need is this guy getting beat up behind the plate. Put him at catcher and his offense will suffer. Rice is the first player to escape the vortex of suck that is Yankees’ hitter development in seven years. Keep him at first base, let him learn the position, and don’t risk anything by putting him in the line of fire at catcher.
If it were up to me, I would not have re-signed Goldschmidt, and played Rice against lefties most of the time. You could’ve “platooned” him against tough lefties (the Garrett Crochet types) with Cody Bellinger, who’s been a great left-on-left hitter the last few years and can play first base well. That would’ve left a bench spot for another outfielder or whatever. Too late for that though. Goldschmidt’s here.
I know it feels like the sky is falling, but my dudes, it’s April 17th. Give the season a chance to breathe. The Yankees saw one lefty in the first 11 games and now they’ve run into a string of them, so Rice sitting stands out. Give it a few days and they’ll see a bunch of righties again, and he’ll play everyday. I would rather not have Goldschmidt, but he’s here. Might as well use him this early in the season.
The larger issue is the Yankees aren’t hitting lefties: .160/.244/.291 (37 wRC+) as a team. They’re 30th in AVG, 30th in OBP, 28th in SLG, and 30th wRC+. This is not a “Boone is stupid and keeps sitting Rice” thing. It’s a “Bellinger, Caballero, Stanton, Randal Grichuk, and Amed Rosario are a combined 10-for-76 (.132) against lefties” thing. If those guys don’t hit lefties, it won’t matter what Goldschmidt and Rice do.
There are two more lefties coming up this weekend and at least one more next week in Boston. Rice will start against at least one of those lefties, I bet, but Goldschmidt will play too. I’m fine with it for now, and “for now” is the key phrase. Let’s re-evaluate in a few weeks. On the list of problems with the 2026 Yankees, I don’t think Goldschmidt taking at-bats against lefties away from Rice in April cracks the top 50.
Bad Jazz
Chisholm’s contract year could not be off to a worse start. He’s hitting .179/.257/.254 (50 wRC+) with no homers and a ghastly 22/6 K/BB. Jazz is stealing bases (8-for-9) and he’s made some great (and some not-so-great) defensive plays, so he’s contributing those ways, but the bat has been dreadful. The underlying numbers back this dreadful start too:
This isn’t a Trent Grisham situation where the contact quality is there. Chisholm’s been terrible because he’s deserved terrible results. Jazz’s swing looks big, like he’s trying to hit a five-run homer every at-bat, though the Statcast bat-tracking stuff is where it was last year. If his swing is out of whack, it’s not showing up in those numbers, which doesn’t mean it’s not out of whack. We just can’t see it with Statcast.
Chisholm’s in-zone contact rate is up a few percentage points, if you can believe that. He’s chasing more and swinging at fewer pitches in the zone though, which is a messy combination. Chisholm’s also hitting a ton of popups. He got lucky that Neto/Peraza botched things Wednesday, but popups are basically automatic outs. Jazz has a higher popup rate (16.3%) than line drive rate (14.0%). That won’t work.
You can tell Chisholm is pressing by his body language and also some of the ABS challenges he’s fired off. Bad challenges in poor situations made out of frustration, that kinda thing. There’s a lot going wrong here. Poor approach, too many poorly struck batted balls, frustration and bad thoughts taking over. When this happens, it feels like it will never end, but it will. When? I have no idea. I hope soon.
(Maybe Jazz meant 50 popups and 50 blown ABS challenges when he said he wanted to go 50/50.)
You can only expect so much from Caballero/Volpe and McMahon. The 8-9 hitters aren’t saving any team. For the Yankees to fire on all cylinders offensively, they need Grisham to continue upward, Bellinger to start slugging something more than hustle doubles (.354 SLG), and Chisholm to start doing anything. Walks, singles, home runs, whatever. He’s been almost a complete zero at the plate.
Miscellany
The duality of Ryan Weathers: 5 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 10 K, 4 HR on Tuesday. Four solo homers, including back-to-back-to-back shots that took the wind out of everyone’s sails in the first inning. Mike Trout hit the first homer and, well, Trout did that to everyone this series. I have a hard time blaming Weathers for the second homer. Jo Adell went below the zone to golf a fastball out. What can you do?
The hitters who didn’t take Weathers deep went 1-for-16 with two walks and 10 strikeouts. At one point he retired eight in a row, five via strikeout. Weathers seems destined to frustrate us all year. The talent is obvious and so far the results have been all over the place. Also, the Yankees have yet to score a run with Weathers on the mound. Four starts, 21 innings, zero runs of support … Luis Gil continues to be the guy he’s been since returning from the lat strain last year: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 3 HR on Wednesday. Only three whiffs on 16 swings against his fastball. I really jinxed the shit out of this team’s home run rate, eh? Tuesday I mentioned the Yankees had given up five home runs all season. They’ve given up 11 in the three games since, and the 13 homers they gave up to the Angels are the most they’ve ever given up in a home series in franchise history … The bullpen has been really bad lately, so I feel compelled to note it was excellent behind Gil in Wednesday’s comeback win. It was maybe the best David Bednar’s looked all season.
Boone is going full Scott Proctor with Brent Headrick. He’s pitched an MLB-leading 12 times in the team’s 19 games and has more appearances on zero days’ rest (four) than two days’ rest (three). You don’t want to run the guy into the ground, but also, Headrick is a 28-year-old waiver claim who will likely never be better than he is right now. Might as well ride the wave … Max Fried’s command hasn’t been there since Day 1 of Spring Training and he’s running an 18.1 K% and 8.4% swinging strike rate through five starts. It was 23.6 K% and 11.3% last year. Fried is the master of soft contact, but he’s gonna have to miss more bats than this … And finally, I can’t say I enjoyed watching it the last few days, but I am happy Trout is looking like MIKE TROUT early this season. He’s 34 now and there’s been some decline in addition to all the injuries the last few years. One last big Trout season would be a pretty cool thing in 2026. (The Angels not having a single winning season in their six years with Shohei Ohtani and peak Trout is an all-time bad sports failure.)
Injury updates and roster notes
Anthony Volpe (shoulder) started his rehab assignment Tuesday. He’s 1-for-5 with three strikeouts at the plate and played five innings at short Tuesday, sat Wednesday, and played another five innings at short Thursday. The plan is to play Friday, sit Saturday, then play Sunday. Similar to an early Spring Training build up, basically. My guess is Volpe will be activated when the Yankees start their next homestand on Friday, May 1st, but that’s just a guess … Gerrit Cole (elbow) will start a rehab assignment with Somerset today. He’s scheduled for 40-ish pitches. This starts a rehab window that can max out at 60 days, so the latest Cole can be activated is Tuesday, June 16th. I doubt he’ll rehab that long, but we have a deadline now … Carlos Rodón (elbow, hamstring) will throw live BP with Somerset Saturday, and if that goes well, he’ll start a rehab assignment next week. Boone said Rodón will likely make three rehab starts, so I guess there’s a chance Cole makes it back before him … And finally, the bullpen churn went from Jake Bird to Yerry De Los Santos to Angel Chivilli in the last four days, and they’ve all stunk. It’s at least a little funny the Yankees suddenly need a new fresh reliever every day immediately after cutting Cade Winquest. What can you do?
Up next
Three games against the Royals, who are 7-12 with a -12 run differential. They’re hitting .222/.304/.346 (84 wRC+) as a team, and that’s after scoring nine runs Thursday. It’s been tough sledding for that offense. Here’s what’s coming between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday vs. Royals: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. Michael Wacha (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday vs. Royals: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Noah Cameron (1:30pm ET on YES)
Sunday vs. Royals: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. LHP Cole Ragans (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day
Wacha has a 0.43 ERA (3.01 FIP and 3.45 FIP). He’s given up one run on a Steven Kwan solo homer in three starts and 21 innings, and that’s it. His .180 BABIP and 100% strand rate won’t last all month, let alone all season. Tonight’s a good night for the regression monster to show up. Aaron Judge is 3-for-21 (.143) with 11 strikeouts against Wacha, by the way. One of the few pitches who shuts him down.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Tigers locked up Kevin McGonigle earlier this week. Eight years and $150M. That came a week after the Pirates gave Konnor Griffin nine years and $140M, and two weeks after the Mariners gave Colt Emerson eight years and $95M. You could argue they were the three best prospects in baseball entering the season. Pete Crow-Armstrong extended a few weeks ago. Roman Anthony and Jackson Merrill extended last year. How are the Yankees supposed to acquire elite offensive talent the next few years? The best young players are signing long-term deals. The Yankees could trade for a top hitter(s), we’ve seen them do that (e.g. Juan Soto), but there are only so many bullets to fire in the farm system. The Yankees gotta get better at developing position players and that means both prospects and coaching up Major Leaguers. The market always changes, but, right now, it looks like it’s gonna be hard for the Yankees to bring in prime-aged top-of-the-league kinda hitters the next few years. Hard than it already is, anyway.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Dan asks: So, has George Lombard Jr. become a dude? I.E. a player who might be worth watching now?
Lombard’s always been a dude. I’m a little lower on him than everyone else but the professional prospect rankers have him as a top 30-ish prospect in the game. Lombard has started the year very well: 17-for-41 (.415) with six doubles and two homers in nine games. This has been a bit of a pattern with him. He gets to a new level, struggles, then comes back the next year and dominates. He’s doing it again in Double-A.
"He was taking good swings all night,” Zack Wheeler, who faced Somerset in a rehab start earlier this week, told Greg Johnson after giving up a double to Lombard (video). “You could tell he's a good, strong kid. He has a good bat path. He's gonna be a good player. Hopefully I don't have to face him too much."
If the question is asking if Lombard is on call-up watch, the answer’s no. Ryan McMahon has been awful, but it’s still April, and the Yankees won’t panic and skip Lombard over Triple-A. That’s how you make things worse. I could see Lombard getting to Scranton in May and then coming up in June or July, but a call-up is not imminent. He’s a good prospect having a great start. That’s all it needs to be right now.
Jeremy asks: True or false: Elmer Rodriguez is a better pitcher than Gil right now?
Honestly, I think so. I say true and I’m not normally a “the prospect can’t be worse!” guy. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the Yankees have Rodríguez and Luis Gil pitching on the same day. Big Glue went 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K for Scranton on Wednesday, the same night Gil faced the Angels. They both pitched on April 10th as well. We know the Yankees have Gil at the bottom of their rotation depth chart. He was the odd man out when they went with the four-man rotation, not Will Warren or Ryan Weathers. So, it makes sense then to keep Rodríguez and Gil lined up. If they’re gonna replace a starter for non-injury reasons, it’s likely to be Gil. I don’t think a Gil/Rodríguez switch is imminent, but the Yankees are prepared in case they decide to push that button.
Adam asks: How long before a promotion of Lagrange to the MLB club to supplement the bullpen is a necessity more than a luxury?
How long until it becomes a necessity? We might be there now. I thought it was notable that the Yankees called up Angel Chivilli on Wednesday and not Elmer Rodríguez, who started for Scranton that night and could’ve given the Yankees plenty of innings in the event Luis Gil had a short start. They’re not ready to push the prospect button yet, at least not for a short-term fix. Lagrange isn’t dominating in Triple-A (10.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 9 BB, 13 K in three starts) and I’m guessing the Yankees want to see more control before calling him up. Also, if they plan to put him in the bullpen, he’ll make some relief appearances with Scranton to get familiar with the role. We’ll know a bullpen role is being considered when we see Lagrange do that. I think we’re probably still a few weeks away from Lagrange. The Yankees have some arms to cycle through first. May’s probably the earliest it will start to become a real consideration.
Nick asks: Yovanny Cruz for some FB velo?
The Yankees signed Cruz to a minor league deal over the winter. He was slowed early in the spring by a shoulder issue, then got into games in mid-March and was popping 102 mph. The velocity's nothing new for him. Cruz has always been a hard-thrower, but it is always eye-opening to see that much velocity. Cruz made four Spring Training appearances and is at 7.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR with Scranton.
Between Spring Training and the regular season, Cruz is at three walks to 47 batters faced, or 6.4%. One of the walks was intentional too. This is his first Triple-A stint and he has a career 15.2 BB% in Double-A, so a) the lack of walks this year is very encouraging, and b) it’s a little too early to say things have clicked and Cruz is suddenly finding the zone more often. (He has hit four batters this year.)
Aaron Boone mentioned Cruz as an Opening Day roster candidate near the end of Spring Training but that was never gonna happen after the late start to camp. He’s definitely on the radar though and his triple-digit heater would help the soft-tossing bullpen. Cruz, 26, is not on the 40-man roster, but I don’t think that matters. I think he’s at the front of the call-up line right now, or very close to it.
A different Dan asks: Are you concerned with the lack of home runs so far this year? Looking at the team totals, they're currently 19th.
Dan sent this question in before Monday’s five-homer game. The Yankees went from 19th in home runs to fifth in one night. So, yeah, it’s still early. I’m not concerned with the lack of homers. Not yet. It’s early and so many guys in the lineup have been bad. Bad in a way I don’t expect to continue all season. Even Ryan McMahon. He’s not really a 25 wRC+ hitter (right?). The lack of homers stinks and has definitely contributed to this funk, but I don’t think there’s a cause for concern yet. Annoying? Yes. Worrisome? Not yet. Check back when the calendar flips to May.
John asks: What is your updated assessment on the Yankees ability to develop and "finish off" position players in the Majors, which has been a continuing problem for about a decade now (See Sanchez, Gary et. al.). While it sure seems like Ben Rice is a major success in this department, Wells, Volpe, and Dominguez (each high talent/pedigree prospects) all seem to be following the same backsliding trend we've seen for a decade now. Is there improvement here? Is Rice the exception? Is 1-for-4 the best we can really expect with prospects--even those with the big hype and high prospect ratings Dominguez and Volpe had? How much is the issue the major league coaching staff versus just the difficulty of breaking through at that final development level? Thoughts?
This is a complicated question because, as disappointing as Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells have been at the plate, they are good Major Leaguers. They’re not cornerstone pieces, but they’re good defenders at premium up-the-middle positions, and there’s a lot of value in that (especially during their cheap team control years). It’s sorta funny Volpe and Wells turned into the exact opposite of what they were projected to be. They were bat first prospects with adequate defense. Now they’re almost all glove. Go figure.
Rice has been amazing and is a major success story, but one player working out doesn’t mean something that has been going on for 7-8 years now is all fixed. Unless Rice crashes, he’ll be the first player to come out of the system and put up back-to-back seasons with a 100 OPS+ since Gleyber Torres (min. 300 plate appearances). Volpe and Wells are valuable players, but they are below-average hitters, and hitting was supposed to be their thing. Players always deserve some blame for the way their career plays out. This has been going on for a pretty long time with a lot of different players though. It’s a Yankees thing too.
Diagnosing this as an outsider is basically impossible. Do the Yankees obsess too much over exit velocity and not value contact enough? Adaptable swings, i.e. guys who can manipulate the barrel and cover the entire zone, are a big thing right now, and I feel like the only Yankees who can do that are Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and Trent Grisham. The Yankees have had four different hitting coaches since 2021 and they’ve had turnover on the minor league side too. That suggests the problem starts higher up and isn’t tied to specific coaches.
It’s really hard to hit these days and it feels like no team is good at hitter development. The Orioles were praised for years, and it turns out they developed Gunnar Henderson and a bunch of Quad-A bats. If you have four good position player prospects, getting one above-average bat feels like a win now. So I guess the Yankees are doing what they need to do? I dunno. With all these young players signing long-term extensions, either the Yankees start getting more offense out of their farm system, or they won’t have access to high-end hitting.
Alec asks: Last week you mentioned that the Yankees had four West Coast trips, which is a lot of cross country travel. I have noticed that with the new balanced schedule, more and more teams are making separate cross country trips with increased frequency that make for some insane travel schedules. For example, the Mets make four separate trips out West before mid-June and the A’s make three separate trips East before mid-May. Given the wear and tear that this must put on the players, do you think this is an issue that needs to be addressed by MLB or during the next CBA negotiations? Will the MLBPA push back on this? And separately, are you a fan of the balanced schedule in general, or do you think there should be a change back towards the days of increased divisional matchups? It is weird to look up in September and see the Yankees playing the Padres, Rockies, Angels, and Diamondbacks instead of the classic Red Sox/Blue Jays/Rays/Orioles stretches we used to have!
The CBA has travel rules that set getaway days, off-days, etc. There’s always an off-day when you travel from the West Coast to the East Coast, for example. Travel is definitely something the MLBPA will push back on if they feel it’s too much, and it’s something the owners won’t fight too much. They’re paying these guys millions and don’t want them playing fatigued, because that’s when you get hurt.
(West Coast teams have it the worst. They travel a good 40% more miles than East Coast teams every year.)
As for the more balanced schedule, I like it and think it’s good for baseball, though I do wish there were more intradivision games in September. The Yankees finish their season series with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in August and that just feels wrong. The schedule is a big math problem. Surely they can figure out a solution that includes a series between key division rivals in the season’s final month. It can’t be that hard, can it?
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)