Dax Kilby lives! Last year’s first rounder and my No. 1 ranked prospect made his season debut Thursday. He suffered a hamstring injury in Spring Training that shelved him these last few weeks. Kilby went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in the rookie Florida Complex League on Thursday, and played three innings at shortstop as he builds back up. I assume he'll move across the street to Low-A Tampa once he knocks the rust off. Glad he’s back on the field in time to be able to play a pretty good chunk of the season. Let’s now get into today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. Are the Royals the new Twins? The Twins will always be the Twins, but are the Royals the Twins 2.0? The Yankees swept the Royals this week and are a perfect 14-0 against them since Kansas City won Game 2 of the 2024 Wild Card Series, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. said they “just got lucky.” Postseason included, the Yankees are 29-6 against the Royals since Bobby Witt Jr.’s debut in 2022. A one-sided rivalry, this is.
The Yankees outscored the Royals 50-10 in the six-game season series and only the first game this week was close. In Monday’s post I mentioned the Mariners worked Royals closer Lucas Erceg for 32 stressful pitches Sunday, which could come into play Monday, and although Erceg blew the game, I’m not sure the workload was to blame? The Yankees soft contact bombed him (video) (read from the bottom up):
Goldschmidt got his bat blown up and beat out an infield single. The left-handed Vinnie Pasquantino might have fielded Chisholm’s double, but Pasquantino was taken out for a pinch-runner, so the right-handed Sal Perez was at first base, and the ball was out of reach. Erceg left a two-strike slider up to Volpe, so maybe that’s where the fatigue showed? There was some good fortune that inning. I don’t care. I’ll take it.
“It just felt great to contribute and help the team win,” Volpe told Robert Falkoff. “You do it for this, for the guys. I’m just trying to go out there and compete. Help the team win and have fun. It’s the same game I’ve been playing forever. We have really big goals and it’s going to take all of us.”
The Yankees treated a bad pitcher like a bad pitcher Tuesday, which is always a delight. They tagged Bailey Falter, who was DFAed Wednesday, for seven runs and three homers in 2.1 innings. Even then, they caught a break when Ben Rice’s lineout was overturned into a trap (video). Did you see clear and convincing evidence the ground aided the catch? I didn’t. Maybe MLB had a camera angle we didn’t see.
The third out became an RBI single, Amed Rosario hit a two-run homer to make it 4-0 two pitches later, and the Yankees were off to the races. They really needed a game like that. A stress-free laugher that was over after three innings. I think we all needed it, honestly. Here are some notes on the 15-1 blowout:
The 24 hits were the Yankees’ most since a 24-hit game against the Orioles on July 30th, 2011. They had a 12-run first inning against a young Zack Britton that night (video).
The Yankees had 46 total bases (1.9 bases per hit). The 46 total bases are their most since hanging 49 on the Devil Rays on July 22nd, 2007, and the fifth most in franchise history.
It’s the first time in franchise history all nine starters had multiple hits. It’s been done only 39 times in baseball history (six times since 2022 thanks to the universal DH).
Per Katie Sharp, the Yankees had 24 hard-hit balls (i.e. 95+ mph exit velocity). That’s their most in the Statcast era (since 2015) and tied for 12th most among all teams.
Aaron Judge threw Michael Massey out at the plate to end the third inning Thursday and it was about as perfect as an outfield throw can be (video). To the plate on the fly. Great tag by Austin Wells too. That kept the game 0-0. Two batters later, the Yankees took the lead. They scored seven runs in the final six innings in what was about 75% Yankees dominance and 25% the Royals being demoralized and giving up.
Camilo Doval closed out the series with a casual 102.9 mph cutter, his fastest pitch since June 3rd, 2023. The Yankees have rebounded to win four straight after a 4-10 stretch. Should we call last Saturday the rainout that turned the season around? I’ll roll with it. The Yankees did what they were supposed to do this week and beat up on an inferior opponent. Good work. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.
Like he never left
Usually there are hiccups in the early days back from Tommy John surgery, and Gerrit Cole will probably run into some at some point, but gosh, he’s looked incredible in his two starts. His top end velocity is up compared to the 2024 regular season, he’s getting chases with both breaking balls and also landing them in the zone for strikes, and he seems more confident in this changeup. There are positives abound.
“Maybe the first game was the appetizer. That was the main course right there,” Aaron Boone told Falkoff. “He was dominant and had everything going.”
Fittingly, Cole was surgical in his second start back from Tommy John: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K on 79 pitches (video). Here are his pitch locations. There’s a big empty spot in the heart of the zone because Cole left nothing middle-middle:
I guess Gerrit didn’t get the memo that control is the last thing that comes back after elbow reconstruction. Other than a few changeups that sailed up, everything is where it’s supposed to be. Those four-seamers down seem intentional too. It’s a team-wide thing. I first noticed this with Cam Schlittler in Spring Training. Will Warren and Ryan Weathers are pitching down with their heaters too, not just elevating. This is a new thing.
Here are Cole’s four-seam fastball locations. Obviously we’re in tiny sample size territory, but this is what we have:
Last time we saw Cole, he used his four-seamer as a whiff-getter up in the zone. Two starts into this season, he’s hammered the pitch at the knees while still mixing in a few up high. He’s looked so good and so precise that I think it’s intentional, and not just a guy having control issues and spraying his heater around. I might have to dig into this team-wide “pitch down with four-seamers” thing. Hmmm.
“I think when I first started throwing (during my rehab), I was able to get through the four-seam better than I had been in the previous few years. That was obviously an encouraging sign,” Cole told Greg Joyce. “Outside of that, it’s two games, man. Small sample. There’s still stuff to improve.”
Cole threw 72 pitches in his first start and 79 pitches Wednesday. Figure 85 pitches next time, 90 or so after that, then he’ll be close to fully stretched out. Cole got up to 84 pitches in his final rehab start but that doesn’t really mean anything. It’s rehab. The Yankees are taking a long-term approach with Cole and building him up slowly. That’s a-okay with me. May 27th in Kansas City is not the priority.
Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they would tell you even they’re surprised Cole looks this good and this sharp so relatively early in his Tommy John return. He had one of the smoothest and hiccup-free Tommy John rehabs I can remember. Cole hit every rehab benchmark without an issue and it’s carried over into games that count. It’s two starts, but this is basically the best case scenario. It's vintage Cole already.
Volpe’s plate discipline
Anthony Volpe provided The Big Hit in Monday’s ninth inning comeback and he’s hitting .257/.409/.429 (145 wRC+) in his 11 games back. He has nine walks in 44 plate appearances for a 20.5 BB%. Last year he drew his ninth walk in his 70th plate appearance, and he ran a 7.3 BB% from 2023-25. It’s 11 games, so let’s not go overboard, but Volpe does seem more disciplined and under control at the plate.
Here are his chase rate (O-Swing%) and in-zone swing rate (Z-Swing%). Volpe is chasing out of the zone less and swinging more at pitches in the zone, which is what you want:
Those changes are consistent across pitch types. Volpe is chasing both fastballs and non-fastballs less, and swinging more often in the zone against both fastballs and non-fastballs. SEAGER measures swing decisions (i.e. swinging at the right pitches, not just pitches in the zone in general) and Volpe has jumped from 9.3 last year (poor) to 26.2 this year (elite). The under-the-hood numbers support it.
Counterpoint: It's 11 games and the Mets stink. They walked Volpe seven times in three games two weeks ago, including in five straight plate appearances at one point, and he’s walked only two times in 28 plate appearances since that series. Again, I don’t want to go overboard with this because it’s 11 games and we’ve seen Volpe look great for 11 games before. I’m just making note of the plate discipline stuff.
Volpe started all three games in Kansas City and that can be explained by the Yankees facing a reverse splits righty Monday (Michael Wacha), a lefty opener Tuesday (Bailey Falter), and a lefty starter Wednesday (Noah Cameron). When there are lefties on the mound, Volpe should play. To make it work, José Caballero has begun to move around. He played third base Monday and left field the next two days.
It’s starting to feel like Volpe is the starting shortstop again, and Caballero is moving into a super utility role. I think that’s Caballero’s best role, and if Volpe hits, great, let’s do it. I’m just not ready to say he’s a changed player yet. I’ve bought into a Volpe heater too soon and gotten burned before (multiple times). For now, let’s stick with “it’s a good 11 games,” and hope Volpe continues to look this confident.
Yarbrough and the two longmen thing
Tuesday’s blowout gave the Yankees a chance to dust the cobwebs off Ryan Yarbrough. He went 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K line on 44 pitches to finish the game. The nice thing about Yarbrough is he has a rubber arm, so he can sit for two weeks and then give you three innings. Tuesday was his first appearance in eight days and his fourth in the last calendar month. His 11 appearances are one behind Cam Schlittler.
Gary Phillips spoke with Matt Blake about carrying two longmen, specifically about Yarbrough pitching so infrequently, and it doesn’t sound the bullpen will change anytime soon. “I feel like it’d be shortsighted to make an adjustment, especially this early in the season,” Blake said about potentially dropping Yarbrough. The Yankees value him as a third lefty who can be a matchup guy when needed, and a low leverage multi-inning guy when needed.
Other than the dismissal of Rule 5 Draft pick Cade Winquest, who was on the roster as a ninth reliever when the Yankees went with a four-man rotation early, the bullpen right now is exactly the same as the Opening Day bullpen. Granted, there have been up/down moves along the way, but I can’t say I expected that two months into the season. The bullpen hierarchy is clear:
CloserRHP David Bednar
Trusted Setup MenRHP Fernando CruzLHP Tim Hill
Middle RelieversRHP Jake BirdRHP Camilo DovalLHP Brent Headrick
Utility RelieverRHP Paul Blackburn
Long ManLHP Ryan Yarbrough
Bird, Doval, and Headrick often find themselves in high leverage spots, though that is often because of the inning and availability. In the biggest spots, Boone wants Cruz and Hill on the mound. Blackburn has been solid (3.22 ERA and 3.78 FIP) despite the lack of strikeouts (15.8%). He gets grounders (50.7%) and he doesn’t have much of a platoon split. Given their usage, he’s ahead of Yarbrough on the pecking order.
I think having Blackburn and Yarbrough on the roster is perfectly fine, but, like I said two weeks ago, the Yankees should use Yarbrough more often. I know this is easier said than done, and I know using him for an inning today might burn you if you need him for three innings tomorrow, but using Yarbrough this little puts a lot on the rest of the bullpen. Four appearances in a 28-game span is a bit extreme, you know?
Other than some ninth inning misadventures, the bullpen has been pretty good the last few weeks. The Yankees need another high leverage guy, preferably someone who can overpower hitters with a fastball rather than relying on them to beat sinkers into the ground or chase non-fastballs out of the zone, but that’s a matter for the trade deadline. It was good to get Yarbrough work Tuesday. He could use more of it.
Miscellany
Will Warren lost the plate for an inning Monday and walked three in a four-batter span. He walked three in only two of his 10 starts going into the game, then walked three in an inning. A better opponent may not have let him off the hook with one run on a sacrifice fly, but it was the Royals. You face who’s on the schedule, not some hypothetical opponent. Kinda neat that 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR on 85 pitches qualifies as a “shaky” Warren start now … Cam Schlittler wasn’t super duper sharp Tuesday but he was great nonetheless: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HR on 77 pitches (video). After some big pitch counts in his last two starts, the Yankees pulled Schlittler early in the blowout and saved bullets. I am all for resting starters, so that got a thumbs up from me … Cody Bellinger picked up his first two road homers of the season this week (videos). His home/road split is still enormous (230 wRC+ vs. 67 wRC+) but is closing. Bellinger is making me look stupid for complaining about his contract. He’s been awesome in every way … For a guy who says he doesn’t try to use the opposite field, Ryan McMahon hits a lot of opposite field home runs. He hit another one Wednesday (video). He has a 27.7% opposite field air rate, second highest among lefty hitters behind James Wood. McMahon strikes out a lot (31.2%) and the balls he does put in play are to the bigger part of Yankee Stadium. It’s not a great combination. He didn't play Monday or Tuesday and yeah, you can maybe attribute that to the pitching matchups, but McMahon should be on the short end of the playing time stick as the Yankees look for ways to get Caballero and Volpe in the lineup together … The second came off a position player pitcher, but Amed Rosario had two homers as part of his 4-for-6 night Tuesday (video). He has two two-homer games this year after coming into the season with two in his career. The six homers match last year’s total. He hasn’t hit more than six since an 11-homer season as a full-time player in 2021. Rosario’s been so great in his role.
Injury updates and roster moves
Max Fried (elbow) went for imaging recently and was not cleared to begin a throwing program. He is playing light catch, which is more of a “keep the arm moving” thing than a “throwing with intent” thing … Giancarlo Stanton (calf) got the okay to increase his running. Boone told Pete Caldera that Tuesday’s MRI “showed a lot of improvement,” and Stanton is ready to take the next step, pun intended … And finally, the Yankees signed righty reliever Peter Strzelecki to a minor league deal the other day and sent him to Scranton. He has MLB time (3.44 FIP and 3.49 FIP in 77 innings) with some smart teams (Brewers and Guardians, also the Diamondbacks), but none since 2024. The Yankees are his fourth organization in the last two years. Strzelecki might show up at some point in up/down duty, though this is a depth signing more than a bullpen fix.
Up next
The Yankees are back on the West Coast for a weekend series in Sacramento. The A’s new stadium in Las Vegas is going up, so a 2028 open seems doable. That would mean one more series in Sacramento next year for the Yankees. Here’s the weekend ahead:
Friday at A’s: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Luis Severino (9:30pm ET on YES)
Saturday at A’s: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP J.T. Ginn (10pm ET on YES)
Sunday at A’s: RHP Will Warren vs. TBA (4pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day
Ginn is the guy who took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Angels on May 18th, then gave up a leadoff single to Adam Frazier and a walk-off homer to Zach Neto. Talk about a swing of emotions, eh? Sunday’s TBA will be an opener with lefty Jacob Lopez as the bulk innings guy. Lopez lines up to pitch that day and the A’s gave him an opener last time, so yeah. Figure that’s the plan again.
The Athletics got swept by the Mariners this week and fell out of first place for the first time since April 20th. They’re 27-29 with a -25 run differential. The AL West is that bad. Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers are a great 1-2 punch and 2024-25 Offseason Plan signing Carlos Cortes is hitting .336/.425/.527 (167 wRC+) in a heavily platooned role. The A’s can hit a little. Pitch? Not so much.
2. 2026 draft prospects: Liberty RHP Ben Blair. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Blair, 21, spent his freshman year as a heavily used high leverage reliever before moving into the rotation as a sophomore. He took over Liberty’s ace this spring and has pitched to a 3.61 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 29.3 K% and 4.7 BB% in 15 starts and 87.1 innings. The 24.6 K-BB% is a top 10 mark in the country. Here are Blair’s most recent draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 44
ESPN: No. 39
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 58
MLB Pipeline: No. 54
Blair had a big workload and a big innings increase last year, so he skipped summer ball. The Yankees have a thing for guys who perform well against in the Cape Cod League, and they didn’t get that look at him. That doesn’t mean Blair is off their draft board. They just have less info on him. Here’s video and here is a chunk of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Blair offers an intriguing combination of funk, deception, stuff and command, with as many as five pitches to choose from. He’ll throw both a four-seam, with decent run to the glove side, and a two-seam with sink to the arm side, firing his fastball up to 97 mph. The sinker is a true bowling ball which was getting ground-ball outs around 50 percent of the time in 2026. He has a distinct slider, with bite, depth and occasional sweep, missing bats at around 83-84 mph, and more of an upper-80s cutter with short, late life. He doesn’t use his mid-80s changeup much, but some scouts think it could be solid average in time.
All of Blair’s stuff plays up because of his unorthodox mechanics. His delivery features a low slot and cross-body arm action to go along with a leg kick. It looks like it should take a lot of effort, but he repeats it well and has become an extreme strike-thrower, creating a very uncomfortable at-bat.
It’s four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider) and the makings of a fifth (changeup), and Blair throws a lot of strikes. That all points to a future in the rotation. The delivery is definitely reliever-y though, and just not what you see from a guy throwing 90 pitches every 5-6 days:
With a more conventional delivery, Blair might be a cinch first rounder rather than a likely second round pick. These days teams look at pitch data first and the visual evaluation of the delivery second, so maybe an analytical inclined team takes the plunge in the top 30-ish picks somewhere? “What does it look like?” matters less than “does it work?”, and at least at the college level, it works for Blair.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. The first round of CBA proposals came this week. Here is the MLBPA’s and here is MLB’s. The two sides are very, very, very far apart. That was to be expected. These are only opening proposals. They’re wishlists, basically. The most substantive negotiations are months away. Don’t drive yourself crazy now. There will be plenty of time for freaking out in January and February. The eventual CBA, whenever we get it, will look nothing like these initial proposals.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Steve asks: Would you trade Will Warren or Ryan Weathers for Tarik Skubal if he were put on the block and comes back basically like himself? I can't imagine the Yankees beating other teams (Dodgers) in a prospect trade unless the Tigers really love Elmer Rodriguez for some reason. It's hard to give up 4.5 or 2.5 years of a mid rotation starter for someone here for just half a season but Skubal/Schlittler/Cole/Fried in the playoffs would be absurd. Would you do it?
I’m probably gonna do a big “pros/cons/should they?” kinda thing about a possible Tarik Skubal trade at some point. The Tigers are so bad (22-35 overall and 4-18 in their last 22 games) that a trade is starting to feel inevitable. He’ll have about $9M in salary coming to him at the trade deadline, and, if the Tigers are smart, they’ll eat money to get a better return and get small market contenders involved.
I would trade Weathers before Warren even though I think Weathers is the better pitcher. Warren has two extra years of control and a much, much cleaner injury history (there is no such thing as durable pitchers though, just pitchers who haven’t gotten hurt yet). The Yankees need cheap starters to fill out the rotation. Throwing $10M to $15M at a No. 4-5 starter is no way to go through life. Warren’s important.
I don’t think it would take Warren or Weathers and a top prospect (George Lombard Jr.?) to get Skubal. Rental stars never get traded for as much as anyone expects. What the Yankees gave up for one full year of Juan Soto qualifies as a great return. Mookie Betts, Corbin Burnes, Paul Goldschmidt, Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, etc. Stars with one or fewer year of control, and they all returned trade packages that ranged from meh to flat out bad.
Maybe the bidding war pushes it into Warren/Weathers and Lombard territory, but I bet enough loser teams back away because of the money, because they love their prospects too much, and because they figure they can get into the postseason without him. If you can turn Weathers and 2-3 secondary pieces into Skubal, I think you do it. If you can talk them down from Weathers to Elmer Rodríguez, even better.
I know rotation help is not a priority at the moment, but don’t let good stand in the way of great. Assuming Skubal comes back healthy and as himself (that’s the important part here, I’m assuming he comes back from elbow surgery as an ace), he’s a monster who can swing a postseason series. We’re kinda sorta maybe possibly starting to see the sun set on Aaron Judge’s time as an all-time great hitter. Skubal could help max this season out.
Jon asks: Eventually Max Fried will return, and let's say he does so, healthy and pitching like himself. And what if between now and then, Warren and Weathers continue pitching the way they have been - but so does Rodon? I assume the Yankees wouldn't remove Warren/Weathers from the rotation. The way those two are going, Cole/Fried/Schlittler/Warren/Weathers would be better than a 1990s Braves rotation. Does/can Rodon go to the bullpen? Is a 6 man rotation a good idea if one of the six is producing poorly? I know that this is a good problem to have, and it will unfortunately take care of itself with yet another injury somehow, but I can also see the potential for a Yankees own-goal, Volpe style. What do you think?
I think a six-man rotation is a good idea and I think the Yankees might actually do it, at least temporarily, because they have six good starters. That hasn’t always been the case the last few years. The last guy in the bullpen (Ryan Yarbrough) pitches so infrequently that dropping him won’t create a big void. I think there’s a chance the Yankees use a six-man rotation. If not full-time, at least now and then.
The Mariners have the six good starters “problem” right now and are piggybacking Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller every fifth day. It’s going well on the field, but Castillo doesn’t seem happy about it. The Yankees could swing this with Will Warren and Ryan Weathers. Weathers has bullpen experience and you can do this every fifth day, and ideally use them to cover all nine innings to rest the bullpen. It’s doable as long as they buy in.
It will be a few weeks until Max Fried returns. He hasn’t been cleared to start a throwing progression yet and June 1st is a weekend away. If we see Fried before the All-Star break, I think that would be a win. I hate giving this answer because it feels like such a cop out, but it is the correct answer: The Yankees will worry about this when the time comes. The game has a way of solving roster logjams for you.
Lynn asks: How do you feel about playing Volpe at SS, Rosario at 3B, and Caballero at 2B against left handed starters?
This is the way to go, right? It definitely is against tough lefties (Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, etc.), and you don’t have to try hard to talk me into it against lesser lefties too. Jazz Chisholm Jr. hasn’t been good against lefties this year. He was average-ish against them the last two years …
… and I’m sure not “average-ish” is the most compelling case to keep him in there. Amed Rosario has to play against every lefty, period. José Caballero (career 115 wRC+) and Anthony Volpe (career 108 wRC+) have both been much better against lefties than righties in their careers too. You kinda gotta use them against lefties. They’re better at hitting lefties than Jazz, so start them against lefties.
Now that Caballero has begun playing the outfield, this could be Chisholm or Trent Grisham that is out of the lineup against lefties. It doesn’t have to automatically be Chisholm. Grisham has a small-ish platoon split this year (108 wRC+ vs. 96 wRC+), but this again falls into the “the other guys are better at hitting lefties so they should play against lefties” bucket. Some days Jazz could sit, others Grisham.
Joshua asks: I feel like we had the same concern about the bottom of the lineup last year. What’s the comparison between the two at this point in the year?
Let’s look at this two ways. First, let’s compare the 7-8-9 lineup spots through 56 team games. That’s the textbook definition of the “bottom of the lineup.” Here’s the comparison:
AVG: .220 in 2025 vs. .222 in 2026
OBP: .303 in 2025 vs. .303 in 2026
SLG: .395 in 2025 vs. .355 in 2026
wRC+: 96 in 2025 vs. 88 in 2026
Surprisingly close! Last year’s 7-8-9 at least slugged. They had 32 doubles and 25 homers through 56 games. This year’s 7-8-9 has 21 doubles and 18 homers. We can thank Trent Grisham and Ben Rice for much of last year’s 7-8-9 slug. Both started the year down in the order and were great. It wasn’t until late April/early May that they moved higher in the lineup on a permanent basis.
That’s the first way to look at this. The second is to compare the three worst hitting regulars and consider them the “bottom of the lineup.” By wRC+, that’s José Caballero (99 wRC+), Ryan McMahon (69 wRC+), and Austin Wells (62 wRC+) this year now that recent hot streaks have Grisham (105 wRC+) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (106 wRC+) in on the right side of the ledger.
Through 56 games last year, the worst regulars offensively were Oswaldo Cabrera (83 wRC+), Wells (96 wRC+), and Chisholm (102 wRC+). Combine those three guys and this is what you get:
AVG: .211 in 2025 vs. .213 in 2026
OBP: .297 in 2025 vs. .288 in 2026
SLG: .397 in 2025 vs. .333 in 2026
wRC+: 94 in 2025 vs. 77 in 2026
This year’s bottom three regulars have been much, much worse than last year’s through 56 games. Wells wasn’t horrible through 56 games last year. You can live with a 96 wRC+ at catcher. It’s harder to live with Wells when he has a 62 wRC+ though, and McMahon’s somehow been worse than Cabrera. Can you really expect Caballero to be so much better moving forward than he has been? I think that's pushing it.
Caballero has been good and Anthony Volpe’s had 11 good games, though I can’t say I'm eager to see those two on the left side of the infield the rest of the season. A left-side-of-the-infielder and a righty hitting catcher to platoon with Wells are reasonable trade deadline goals. That’s not too much to ask, though it may be hard to get an infielder in this market. As for the question though, yeah, this year’s bottom of the lineup has been worse than last year’s through 56 games no matter how you slice it.
Sam asks: You mentioned Jackson Lovich back in April and a full month later he's still hitting the cover off the ball. On the other hand, he's 22 in Low-A, and striking out at about a 30% clip. He's probably due for a promotion, but are you ready to call him A Dude, rather than a guy to watch? Typically, when do you make the switch from a prospect being interesting to a prospect being someone who looks like he can be a big league contributor one day? I tend to not get excited about hitters until they show they can hit Double-A pitching.
Lovich, last year’s 16th rounder and one of my Prospects to Know, took a .302/.384/.633 (162 wRC+) line with 11 home runs into Thursday’s game. He is absolutely smashing the ball. Lovich is near the top of the Florida State League with a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 15.2% barrel rate. The downside is a 29.6 K% and a hideous 34.2% in-zone whiff rate (FSL average: 22.9%).
There is defensive value here. Lovich won’t win any Gold Gloves, but he’s capable at shortstop and third base, and he’s playing some first too. He’s athletic and instinctive enough that I bet he could handle the corner outfield spots if the Yankees try him out there. The upside looks like a power-over-hit righty platoon bat who can cover different positions, so I guess Adam Duvall? Duvall played some first and third early in his career.
Lovich played three years in the SEC at Missouri and he’s already 22. He’s about a year older than the average FSL player. He should be annihilating Low-A, and he is. Lovich is a nice sleeper and a nice get in the 16th round, but this is very much a “let’s see what happens when he gets to Double-A” situation. He’s not a bat-only guy, but the swing-and-miss-ability is scary bad and in fatal flaw territory.
As for when a prospect makes the leap to a capital-D Dude, it's different for everyone. Some guys have more overt skills/data in the lower minors that make it easier to buy into. That is especially true with pitchers. We knew pretty quickly when a pitcher makes the leap and becomes a Dudes these days (see: Cam Schlittler in 2025). Double-A is a good benchmark for hitters. Do well there, and you've got a real chance.
Ben asks: I’ve been thinking about the PPI picks qualifications: the Yankees have turned two unheralded prospects (Rice & Schlit) into legitimate T3 MVP/Cy Young candidates (even though they may not have been eligible based on call up dates). Believe we fell into the same trap with Gil as well. What is the purpose of the T100 list qualification, and does it disadvantage teams like the Yankees who seem to generate MLB talent from lower-ranked prospects?
Here is the criteria that qualifies a player for Prospect Promotion Incentive picks:
Accrue a full year of service time as a rookie-eligible player.
Appear on two of three top 100 prospect lists (Baseball America, ESPN, MLB Pipeline).
Win Rookie of the Year, or finish top three in MVP/Cy Young voting before arbitration.
Neither Ben Rice nor Cam Schlittler was a top 100 prospect, plus they didn’t spend a full year in the big leagues as rookies, so they’re not PPI eligible. Luis Gil wasn’t a top 100 prospect entering 2024, so the Yankees didn’t get a PPI pick for his Rookie of the Year win. The Yankees would get a PPI pick if Austin Wells finishes in the top three of the MVP voting this year, but, you know.
To answer the question, I assume the top 100 prospect qualification exists because those are the players most likely to have their service time manipulated. The Yankees didn’t manipulate Rice’s or Schlittler’s service time. Rice started 2024 in Double-A, got promoted to Triple-A, then came up when there was an injury. Schlittler did the same in 2025. They came up when they were needed.
Are teams that get more out of lower ranked prospects at a disadvantage? I dunno, I think turning lower ranked prospects into good big leaguers is a pretty good advantage as it is. I wouldn’t expand the pool of PPI eligible players. Give teams more chances at a PPI pick and it lessens the incentive to put your top prospect on the roster. It’s an imperfect system, but it appears to be working as intended.
Andrew asks: Gio Urshela's retirement announcement got me thinking, which Yankee teams from the Judge era (2017-present) would you award the following?
-- best overall roster
-- best starting rotation
-- best bullpen
-- best offense
-- best vibes / fun factor
The 2017 team will always stand out to me as a fun one given how quickly the baby bombers seemed to put everything together and make a run. I also recall the 2021-2023 teams having good pitching but not enough hitting. Curious to hear your perspective!
Yeah, 2017 definitely takes the “best vibes/fun factor” easily. The Yankees were kinda sorta rebuilding at the time (they sold at the 2016 deadline, remember), then Aaron Judge began mashing dingers and Luis Severino pitched like an ace, and suddenly the Yankees were good. Few things in sports are more fun than an unexpectedly good team (especially a young team). Let’s dig into the rest of those categories.
Best overall roster: My head says 2019 but the numbers say 2022 even though that 2022 team leaned a lot on Matt Carpenter’s Barry Bonds impression. Here are the 2022 team’s numbers compared to the rest of the Judge era (I’m ignoring 2020 entirely for this mailbag question):
Run differential: +240 (Next best: +204 in 2019)
BaseRuns record: 104-58 (Next best: 102-40 in 2017)
Total WAR: +54.9 (Next best: +53.2 in 2018)
I guess that makes 2022 the answer, though I’m still partial to 2019. That team got hammered by injuries (Judge, Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Luke Voit all missed time) and it revealed insane (and rocket ball aided) depth. Urshela, Mike Ford, Domingo Germán, Cameron Maybin, Mike Tauchman, and others came out of the woodwork.
The Yankees got to the postseason in 2019 and had two lineup spots for Urshela, Voit, and MVP candidate phase DJ LeMahieu. (Voit drew the short straw and mostly sat.) The 2019 rotation wasn’t as good as the 2022 rotation, definitely not, but it was still pretty good. I’ll stick my neck out and say the 2019 team had the best overall roster of the Judge era. That roster turned out to be so, so deep.
Best starting rotation: It’s this year’s, right? There’s still a long way to go and the rotation could collapse/get injured, but looking at the talent on the roster, it’s this year. Any one of Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Cam Schlittler would’ve been the ace of the 2017-19 Yankees (with all due respect to Severino), and Cole never had a No. 2 like Fried or Schlittler from 2021-24 (with all due respect to 2024 Carlos Rodón).
If I can’t pick 2026, then I think 2022 is the answer. Cole, Germán, Severino, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery, and Jameson Taillon started 147 of 162 games that year with a combined 3.39 ERA (3.68 FIP and 3.49 xERA). Taillon and his 101 ERA+ was the worst of those starters. Let’s say the 2022 rotation is the best of the Judge era with the 2026 group having a chance to take the crown.
Best bullpen: I think this one’s easy. It’s 2018. That team had vintage Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green at his peak, a resurgent Dellin Betances (2.70 ERA and 2.47 FIP with 42.3 K%), David Robertson being David Robertson, and then they added Zack Britton at the deadline. Don’t sleep on Jonathan Holder either: 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) in 66 innings. The 2017 and 2019 bullpens were great (2021-24 very good but as good as 2017-19), but that 2018 bullpen was on another level.
Best offense: The 2019 Yankees had by far the most home runs (306) and runs (943) of the Judge era, though that was the rocket ball year, so their 117 wRC+ was only third best of the Judge era behind 2025 (119) and 2024 (118). I think last year’s offense was best. Three 30-homer guys, seven 20-homer guys, six guys with 200+ plate appearances and at least a 125 wRC+. Last year’s offense was deep.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)