If it’s your thing, All-Star voting opened this week. Here’s the ballot. Phase 1 runs through June 25th and the leading vote-getter in each league gets an automatic starting spot in the All-Star Game. Otherwise the top two vote-getters at each position (six outfielders) advance to Phase 2, which will run from June 29th to July 2nd. The All-Star Game and related festivities are in Philadelphia this year. Let’s now get into today’s post.
1. Judge’s injury. Good news: We may have an explanation for Aaron Judge’s down season (relatively speaking) that is not age-related decline. Bad news: Judge is injured. He has a stress fracture in his top right rib, the Yankees announced late Thursday night. Judge will rest for 4-6 weeks, then be re-evaluated. This calls for a meme:
The injury presented as pain in Judge's shoulder when he swung. He said it bugged him the last few weeks and got worse last weekend in Sacramento. The Yankees consulted a vascular specialist to rule out Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and other really nasty stuff. All things considered, a stress fracture is "good" news, but there's nothing good about this.
Neither Judge nor Aaron Boone could pinpoint when he suffered the injury. Twice in three days Judge crashed into the wall making a catch against the Orioles last month (videos), and his performance started to slip almost immediately after that. It also aligns with his contact quality taking a dip:
How Judge suffered the injury doesn’t matter now. He’s hurt, and when you add in a build up period and rehab assignment, he's looking at 8-10 weeks on the shelf and a late July/early August return at the earliest. Even down year Judge is better than all but 10-15 players in the game. It's gonna be a tight AL East race again. Judge missing two-ish months could swing the division. It's an enormous blow, to state the obvious.
Without Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees' best right-handed bat right now is late career Paul Goldschmidt, and the second best is probably José Caballero? They are thin on that side of the plate. Judge won’t be around to help prop up the Murder Me Row of Ryan McMahon, Austin Wells, and Anthony Volpe at the bottom of the order. It’s a big, big void.
The Yankees put Stanton in the outfield (20 games!) when Judge had his flexor injury last year. Would they do that again to get Goldschmidt and Ben Rice in the lineup together? My guess is no coming off a calf injury. Jasson Domínguez is ahead of Stanton with his rehab anyway. I assume Spencer Jones will come up and play right field at least until Domínguez returns, if not longer than that. The Yankees really, really need Stanton's righty power back ASAP.
Could the Yankees turn to the trade market? I suppose so, but Judge is expected back this season, and June/early July usually isn't busy with trades. Every team thinks they're in it in the three Wild Card era. No one's eager to sell, plus everyone knows the Yankees are desperate right now. That's how you wind up overpaying. The Yankees are gonna stick with their internal options while Judge is out. Domínguez, Jones, whoever else.
(Nick Castellanos and Andrew McCutchen were both DFAed within the last week. They were very bad with the Padres and Rangers, respectively, hence the DFAs. They are freely available though. I'd prefer McCutchen to Castellanos, though neither excites me.)
Things got scary when the Yankees said they were consulting a vascular specialist because that's potentially career-altering stuff. Compared to that, a stress fracture is good news, but it's still very bad news. The lineup length issues will only get worse, and the outfield defense will be worse as well. The 2026 Yankees are not the 2023 Yankees, but they can be a very different team with Judge than without. We've seen it enough over the years.
“Aaron obviously means a lot to us,” Gerrit Cole told Bryan Hoch. “He just plays great baseball all the time and brings great energy. It’s tough when guys get hurt, but unfortunately, it’s part of the game. As a team, you’ve got to figure out how to step up in those situations, and so that’s what we’ll do.”
There is no replacing Aaron Judge. Everyone will have to be better to make up for his absence, starting with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham, and continuing with the bottom of the order guys. Those guys have to start doing more. Speaking as a spectator, the Yankees are much less entertaining team without Judge. They're still a good team, plenty good enough to get to the postseason, but the summer ahead just got much more difficult.
2. Weekday thoughts. On days they both played, the Yankees are 5-5 (with two off-days) during the Knicks’ 12-game winning streak, and I hey, I thought it was worse. I won’t lie, I would happily trade three more Yankees losses for three more Knicks wins. Three more Knicks wins and there might not be much of a New York left for us or the Yankees to worry about. Here are a few thoughts on the Guardians series.
Cam’s bad night
Going into Tuesday’s game, the Guardians ranked 27th in wOBA (.283) and 28th in xwOBA (.282) against 95+ mph fastballs, so I figured Cam Schlittler would breeze right through them. Instead, Schlittler turned in his worst start as a big leaguer: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR on 76 pitches. Yeah, there was shoddy defense behind him, but Schlittler also gave up a lot of hard contact (92.3 mph average exit velocity).
Bad starts are gonna happen and, as good as he is, Schlittler is not actually sub-2.00 ERA good. A course correction was coming at some point. More important than the results is Schlittler’s velocity continuing to trend down. His last two starts are his lowest average four-seam velocities as a big leaguer. He topped out at 98.0 mph Tuesday, which was below his average fastball in four of his first 12 starts.
Schlittler chalks the missing velocity up to a mechanical issue. It’s only June, but fatigue could be a factor too. Last season was his largest workload (by a lot) and his longest season (by a lot). Lots of innings and less time to recover in the offseason, so yeah, a little dead arm period in late May/early June wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world.
“(Velocity) wasn’t great in KC as well and it wasn’t great tonight. I’ve just got to go out there and flush that stuff. I’ll work on it between starts and just go out there and pitch. I didn’t think I did that to my full potential today,” Schlittler told Bryan Hoch. “… I’m not afraid to admit that I was probably out there thinking about some stuff with the four-seam. The mechanics just kind of got away from me a little bit there. I wasn’t going out there competing. I was just trying to get guys out.”
Considering Schlittler throws a fastball variation over 90% of the time, velocity is important. Whatever the reason, mechanics or fatigue or whatever, hopefully it passes and Schlittler gets the missing oomph back soon. I’m not worried about it. If the velocity continues to trend down and we start to see 92s and 93s, then yes, it’s panic time, but these velocity ups and downs happen throughout the season.
(The Yankees have an off-day Thursday and another one the following Monday. If they want to, they can use those off-days to rearrange the rotation and give Schlittler multiple extra days between starts. After that is a 16 games in 16 days stretch. I’d love to see the Yankees call up a spot sixth starter in the middle of those 16 games to give the five starters an extra day.)
Lagrange to the bullpen
The Yankees moved top pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange to the bullpen earlier this week to see whether he can help their big league bullpen, and he made his first Triple-A relief appearance Wednesday. It was a longer relief appearance, not one-inning-and-done: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K on 62 pitches (video). Figure Lagrange will get what is full rest for a starter this time, then they’ll start removing rest days.
The length of Wednesday's outing doesn’t matter right now. Dialing down to 1-2 innings is easy. Lagrange has to get familiar with coming out of the bullpen, which includes figuring out a warmup routine, and Wednesday was the start of that process. Unfortunately the longer outing doesn’t tell us anything stuff-wise. He was in his usual velocity range and, other than a few more four-seamers, he used his pitches at the usual rates.
The Yankees are taking a longer approach and gradually building Lagrange down, which is kinda funny because it's the opposite of the usual pitching build up. What it does mean is Lagrange is not an immediate option. It’ll be a few weeks before we see him in the big leagues in a relief role, if we see him in that role at all. There’s a chance he doesn’t take to it right away and the Yankees aren’t comfortable with it.
“We definitely view him long-term as a starter, but in the 2026 lens, there’s a chance for him to potentially impact us out of the bullpen while not really disrupting anything moving forward,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “… You’re talking about several weeks of deloading and then building in the (routine) every other day, so that takes a while, but we’ll see.”
Miscellany
Gerrit Cole’s third start back from Tommy John surgery was by far his worst Wednesday night: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 HR on 83 pitches. He gave up one homer on a fastball, one on a slider, and one on a curveball. Equal opportunity dinger giver upper. Cole’s pitch count has gone from 72 to 79 to 83 in his three starts. Figure close to 90 next time … Carlos Rodón continued his “gets better every start” progression Thursday: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K on 93 pitches. His velocity also ticked up. The four-seamer averaged 94.9 mph and topped out at 97.3 mph after sitting closer to 93 mph and topping out at 96.2 mph in his previous two starts. Good stuff, Carlos … We have a new Most Baffling Decision of the Year: Tuesday night Tim Hill faced José Ramírez with first base open, a runner on third with one out, and two lefties coming up. Ramírez predictably doubled, because Hill has been terrible against righties for two years now (and terrible in general for close to a month). I assume Boone stuck with Hill because Ramírez was 1-for-10 in his career against him going into that at-bat, but that was a pretty obvious “don’t overthink it, just walk him” situation … Camilo Doval let Tuesday’s game get away but I can only blame him so much. Ground ball single, infield single that Anthony Volpe misplayed, infield single, jam shot bloop double that stayed just fair. It be like that sometimes. That isn’t to say Doval has been good this year. How does a guy who throws this hard – he hit 102.5 mph Tuesday! – have a 20.2 K%? … Paul Goldschmidt’s left/right splits would make Cody Bellinger’s home/road splits blush: 253 wRC+ vs. 64 wRC+. No Judge and no Stanton means Goldschmidt is the best option to split up the lefties in the 1-2 and 4-5 lineup spots though, so the Yankees just have to live with him against righties for now … And finally, Trent Grisham ripped his tenth double of the season Thursday afternoon. He had nine all of last year. Doubles are great. Home runs are better. More of those, Trent, please.
Injury updates and roster news
Max Fried (elbow) was given the okay to increase his catch distance this week. He’ll see the doctor again late next week to determine if he can start throwing off a mound … Giancarlo Stanton (calf) and Jasson Domínguez (shoulder) took live BP against Angel Chivilli (shoulder) on Wednesday. Stanton will do it again this weekend and continue his running progression. Domínguez will play rehab games today and Sunday, then likely a few more next week. Maybe he’ll be back next weekend in Toronto? … Clarke Schmidt (elbow) came up from Tampa to join the Yankees for the homestand. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen Monday and is still on track to face hitters later this month. Schmidt indicated his target is a mid-to-late August return, and he’ll do whatever the Yankees ask. Start, relieve, etc … Paul Goldschmidt had some back tightness earlier this week and DHed Tuesday and Wednesday. He’s fine, but I didn’t realize until then that Ben Rice made 10 straight starts at DH before Tuesday’s game. Makes sense given the defense … Dax Kilby is hurt again, I think. My No. 1 prospect made his season debut last Thursday after suffering a hamstring injury in Spring Training, and hasn’t played since. Maybe there’s another reason he’s been out, but Occam’s Razor says he’s hurt again, hamstring or otherwise … And finally, Rafael Montero is still with Scranton, which I take to mean he did not use his June 1st opt out. He has a 5.14 ERA (3.40 FIP) with 29.5 K% in 14 innings this year. Can't say I see him as much of a bullpen fix.
Up Next
One of the least buzziest Yankees vs. Red Sox series I can remember. There’s been very little build up to this weekend. I get it with the Red Sox being bad and lacking big names. It’s an uninteresting team, which isn’t to say this series will be an easy sweep. The Red Sox are just kinda irrelevant in the larger baseball consciousness. Nonetheless, there’s a national broadcast. Here’s the weekend ahead:
Friday vs. Red Sox: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP Sonny Gray (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday vs. Red Sox: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Ranger Suárez (7:30pm ET on FOX)
Sunday vs. Red Sox: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. LHP Connelly Early (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday at Guardians: TBA vs. TBA (6:30pm ET on YES, FS1)
(Quick turnaround means Monday’s TBA vs. TBA lines up for a Gerrit Cole vs. Gavin Williams rematch.)
The Red Sox are near the bottom of the league in just about every important offensive category, though they’ve had a good run of late. They’ve scored 73 runs in their last 14 games after scoring 75 runs in their previous 21 games (17 of the 75 came in one game too), and they faced some good teams during that stretch (Braves, Guardians). Win a series this weekend, please.
3. 2026 draft prospect: Mississippi HS IF/C Cole Prosek. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Prosek, 19 next week, is a football (quarterback and running back) and baseball standout in the Memphis suburbs. He has one of those comical high school batting lines this spring: .585/.678/1.177 with 18 home runs and 79 RBI in 41 games. Prosek leads the country in RBI and is second in homers. Here are his most recent draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 46
ESPN: Outside top 85
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 57
MLB Pipeline: No. 33
In his latest mock draft, Kiley McDaniel wrote Prosek “won't last much longer than (the No. 35 pick) and is a favorite of many scouts around the industry.” He’s gotten buzz as high as the No. 20 pick, so there are teams that like him much more than the public rankings. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d), which is most informative:
Prosek is one of the most polished hitters in the 2026 high school class and has been a consistent high-level offensive performer on the travel circuit for years. He’s filled out and strong with a 6-foot-1, 195-pound frame and has a short, simple swing with good rhythm, balance and timing. That swing allows him to be consistently on the barrel and drive the ball in the air to all fields for quality contact. Prosek can drive the ball out of the park now with the potential to develop into a 20-plus home run threat. He is an offensive-oriented player who is a below-average runner and doesn’t have typical first-step quickness or fluidity for shortstop. He likely moves off shortstop in pro ball, but if he can continue to develop his defensive actions, he could fit somewhere else in the infield as a reliable fielder with a good internal clock and quick release.
Prosek is a left-handed hitter and he has baseball bloodlines. His uncle, Matt Erickson, played 11 years in the minors and got into four games with the 2024 Brewers, and is currently Milwaukee’s third base coach. Primarily a shortstop, Prosek caught some this spring, and MLB Pipeline says it went “well enough that scouts believe it's a path that may be worth exploring in pro ball.”
If any team can develop Prosek behind the plate, it’s the Yankees. The question is, is it worth the time and effort to develop him at catcher, or is it better to keep him on the infield and not let the defensive work slow down the bat? The Yankees have shifted away from exit velocity monsters and toward players with shorter bat-to-ball swings the last few drafts, with the idea being they can add hard-hit ability through strength training but contact swings are harder to develop. In that sense, Prosek is up their alley.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Max asks: Keibert Ruiz as a mid season trade pick up?
Now 27, Ruiz is hitting .273/.291/.496 (115 wRC+) this season after hitting .247/.291/.369 (82 wRC+) in over 1,700 plate appearances from 2022-25. Spencer Nusbaum (subs. req’d) explained that the Nationals new front office put Ruiz on a weighted bat program to improve his bat speed and changed his stance a bit, which helped him get into his power. They also changed his catching stance, which improved his framing.
Add in the fact that he’s 27 and entering his prime, and those are all tangible reasons that help explain how this player …
… became this player one year later:
Ruiz never walks (2.4% this year lol), so it’s unlikely he’ll ever have even an average OBP, but a switch-hitting catcher with contact skills (15.0 K% and 6.1% swinging strikes this year) and burgeoning power? That’s someone these young Nationals can build around. The previous front office locked Ruiz up too, so that’s one less piece of business they have to worry about. Here’s what’s left on his contract:
2026: $5M
2027: $5M
2028: $7M
2029: $9M
2030: $9M
2031: $12M club option (no buyout)
2032: $14M club option (no buyout)
That’s $30M from 2027-30 with two affordable club options. A year ago, it looked like a bad deal, not that it would have crippled Washington’s payroll. Now it looks pretty good thanks to the new front office getting the Nationals out of the Stone Age and introducing modern training methods. I don’t know what the asking price would be in a Ruiz trade. That’s a tough one to pin down given his career trajectory.
Assuming an agreeable price, my hangup with a Ruiz trade is this is a long-term buy and you’re officially done with Austin Wells. As bad as he’s been this year, I’m not ready to go there yet. I guess the Yankees could bring Ruiz in as the starter and turn Wells into the backup, or even platoon them, but you’re almost better off trading Wells at that point. He’d have more value as a trade chip than as a part-timer.
If you’re done with Wells and want a new starting catcher, Ruiz is a good target as long as you believe this year’s improvement is legitimate. The contract means the Nationals don’t have to trade him, plus they’re surprisingly competitive. Trading your starting catcher when the fan base is energized and you’re a good week away from sitting in a Wild Card spot may not be the best move for the Nationals right now.
(Ruiz’s contract is so cheap that it’s not a big concern, but I’m firmly against long-term deals for non-stars. Even this new and improved Ruiz is good, not great, and you’re taking him on through 2030.)
Lynn asks: Assuming he is healthy, do you think the Yankees would be interested in Ryan Jeffers and what do you think it would take to get him?
Each time Austin Wells pops up on the first pitch or strikes out on three elevated fastballs, I move closer to preferring Jeffers with one good hamate. Wells has a 16.4 BB% and .336 OBP against righties and that’s pretty good, but it is trending in the wrong direction (23.6 BB% and .418 OBP in April vs. 9.8 BB% and .275 OBP in May), and there just isn’t much competitiveness to his at-bats right now. There are things Wells does defensively that are valuable, for sure, but the bat is unplayable.
I answered a mailbag question about Jeffers last month, right after he broke his hamate, and I’ll repeat what I said then: I don’t expect the Yankees to spend significant resources on a catcher at the deadline. Me? I’m willing to do it at this point. Don’t waste your time with the Christian Vázquezes and Jake Rogerses of the world. They would be upgrades at the backup position and give the Yankees a needed righty hitting catcher, but they won’t move the needle. They’re role players. Nothing more.
Jeffers hit .295/.408/.541 (164 wRC+) before the injury, and even if he reverts back to the 2024-25 version of himself (.246/.328/.414 and 110 wRC+), that’s a really good player and an upgrade over Wells. With hamates, who knows? Francisco Lindor broke his hamate in Spring Training and was terrible when he came back. Corbin Carroll broke his hamate and came back hitting like an MVP. Jackson Holliday broke his hamate, had a setback, and came back a month later than expected. Wide range of outcomes there.
The weird thing about a potential Jeffers trade is, as good as he is, who’s the competition? He’s a rental, so only contenders will have interest, and so many contenders are set behind the plate. The Athletics (Shea Langeliers), Blue Jays (Alejandro Kirk), Braves (Drake Baldwin), Brewers (William Contreras), Cardinals (Iván Herrera), Cubs (Carson Kelly), Diamondbacks (Gabriel Moreno), Dodgers (Will Smith), Mariners (Cal Raleigh), Phillies (J.T. Realmuto), and Tigers (Dillon Dingler) are all set behind the plate.
That leaves who? The Guardians, Rays, Padres, and maybe the Rangers and Red Sox? Cleveland made one catcher trade already (Patrick Bailey), so they’re likely out, and will the Red Sox really be in position to buy at the deadline? One injury at a position prone to injuries could change the market, but, right now, the Padres and Rays look like the top competition for Jeffers. Maybe the Rangers too. The bidding war may not be as fierce as you’d expect given the quality of the player at a premium position.
The Twins can make Jeffers the qualifying offer after the season and get a draft pick in the No. 30-35 range if he signs elsewhere. That’s where the asking price starts then. A prospect equivalent to the No. 30-35 trade. You have to beat that for it to make sense for the Twins. Does last year’s Eugenio Suárez deadline trade work as potential Jeffers framework? For rental Suárez, the D’Backs received:
IF Tyler Locklear (team top 10 prospect and near-MLB-ready)
RHP Hunter Cranton (team top 30 prospect and a Double-A reliever)
RHP Juan Burgos (team top 30 prospect and a near-MLB-ready reliever)
Locklear was the stand in for the qualifying offer draft pick, they added in some depth arms, and called it a deal. That framework work for Jeffers? The Twins have more outfielders than they’ll ever be able to fit into one roster. I don’t think Spencer Jones would appeal to them, but you might as well ask. Otherwise the qualifying offer draft pick stand in could be who, Ben Hess? I’d say Elmer Rodríguez is too much given the Suárez trade precedent and the potential lack of a significant bidding war.
I can live with Hess fronting a Jeffers package. Can the Twins? I’m skeptical the Yankees will make a trade for a new starting catcher in part because there is so much to learn on the fly (new pitching staff, etc.) and it’s a lot to ask, plus Jeffers has the hamate injury too. At this point, I’m a yes. Something must be done about the bottom of the lineup and Jeffers is a rental, so you don’t have to close the door on Wells forever. He can try again next year. It’s getting to be time to close the door on him in 2026 though.
Chris asks: Who in AAA has the best chance of helping our pen this year? Is it Lagrange? Or is it someone working as a reliever already? Yovanny Cruz? Eric Reyzelman? Someone else? And is there room to bring more than one of them, and if so, how? Other than Bird, no one you’d consider sending down still has options. I can’t see sending Headrick or Weathers down. Does Doval still have options? He seems on brink of falling out or circle of trust. Who would you DFA? Blackburn or Yarbrough would seem the obvious choice, although you might need more than that if as expected you trade for a reliever as well as to make room for Fried’s eventual return.
Chris sent this question in before we got word Carlos Lagrange is shifting to the bullpen. I think he’s the answer here. Lagrange is the best and most talented pitcher in Scranton and thus most likely to help. I'm the low man on Cruz, who has “hard-throwing reliever who frustrates everyone” written all over him. Reyzelman’s velocity is up and he’s healthy. I just think Lagrange is better. He’s the best shot at an in-house bullpen fix.
As for clearing roster space, I see four relievers who deserve to stay: David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, Brent Headrick, and Tim Hill. Bednar’s been shaky and Hill’s in a rough stretch (please stop using him against good righties), but they’re among the four best relievers on the team. Realistically, the Yankees won’t be able to rebuild the bullpen on the fly in a way that pushes those four guys out. The goal is improving the relief crew around Bednar, Cruz, Headrick, and Hill. Not replacing them.
Jake Bird is a “always on the periphery of the Circle of Trust™ but never actually in it” middle reliever. He’s been optioned already this year and can go back down when a roster spot is needed. Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough are expendable. Those two are the kinda back of the bullpen guys who help get you to the finish line of the 162-game regular season, and then you hope you don’t have to go anywhere near in October. (Yarbrough barely pitches anyway.)
Camilo Doval is, I think inarguably, the most naturally gifted reliever in the bullpen. No one matches up to him in terms of arm talent, which is what makes him so frustrating. He should be so much better than he is! The underlying numbers are quite strong (2.70 xERA) and if you told me Doval will start a 25-inning scoreless inning streak tonight, I’d say yeah, okay, I can see how that would happen.
At the same time, Doval is a liability against lefties (.357/.400/.571 and .423 wOBA) and he can’t hold runners. Runners are 9-for-9 stealing bases against him in only 22.1 innings. When you allow this many balls in play (only 20.2 K%), you can’t give away 90 feet that easily. Doval has always had issues letting things snowball too. Small jams become big innings too often. He’s not at the front of the line to go when a spot is needed in the bullpen, but he can’t be locked into a roster spot either.
Doval does have an option left but the clock is ticking. My quick math says he’ll reach five years of service time on July 6th, at which point he’ll be able to refuse a demotion, and those guys always do. There’s no sending Doval down after July 5th. The Yankees could get out ahead of it and send him down now, but I don’t expect them to do that. They’re gonna keep working with him and try to unlock him.
The Yankees won’t have any trouble opening roster spots for bullpen help, either an internal promotion or a trade. Bird can go back down and no one should sweat moving on from Blackburn or Yarbrough. Doval is a different animal because there is a very good reliever hiding in there somewhere. Of these four, he has the best chance to become part of the solution, and I don’t think it’s close either.
Jackson asks: Realistically speaking, is it possible that the Yankees will NOT trade for relief pitching during the deadline and instead use 2 pitchers now in the rotation (Weathers and Warren with Schmidt/Gil possible) plus Lagrange and go with a starting rotation of Cole/Rodon/Fried/Schlittler? In fact, in the second round with more off days, they can even add one of the Big4 to the pen and be absolutely unhittable in the later innings. The velocity coming out of the pen would be improved immediately, and they can use assets instead to improve 3B and catcher?
No, it’s not realistic. The Yankees always make a bunch of trades at the deadline and the bullpen is such a glaring need that they won’t sit back and count on guys emerging from within. In a perfect world, this is your postseason pitching staff:
Rotation (whatever order)Gerrit ColeMax FriedCarlos RodónCam Schlittler
Bullpen (whatever roles)David BednarFernando CruzBrent HeadrickTim HillWill WarrenRyan Weathers??????
(I’m assuming an eight-man bullpen, though the Yankees could probably get away with seven relievers in the Wild Card Series and the ALDS. In a best-of-seven, no chance.)
That leaves some combination of Jake Bird, Paul Blackburn, Camilo Doval, Carlos Lagrange, Clarke Schmidt, and Ryan Yarbrough for the two ??? spots, with others like Yovanny Cruz and Yerry De Los Santos lurking. It’s not enough. You’re an injury away from asking Bird or Doval or Lagrange or Schmidt to get big outs in the middle innings in the postseason, when starters have a shorter leash and bullpens taken on increased importance.
The Yankees have to do something about catcher and third base, but they can’t focus there and ignore the bullpen. The relievers already in the organization are telling you they can’t get the job done, and you can’t put it all on Lagrange (or expect everyone to stay healthy). The Yankees will trade for bullpen help. I’m sure of it. Will those trades solve the problem? I hope so.
Carlos asks: If the Mets continue to flounder the next couple of years and Soto continues to mash, with his opt out looking do you think: A. There's a chance the Mets just let him walk instead of opting in to the additional $50 million, and B. The Yankees would want to bring him back? What would that contract even look like?
Juan Soto’s opt out is after the 2029 season and the Mets can void it by adding $4M a year to his annual salary. If the Mets are still bad in 2029, then they’ll have way bigger problems than Soto’s opt out decision. I can’t imagine the Mets would let him walk. Using the opt out means Soto’s still great, and if the Mets are that bad, letting him leave for nothing would cause a fan revolt. It’s not happening.
Use the opt out and Soto will walk away from 10 years and $460M. He’ll be going into his age 31 season. The Yankees wouldn’t go the extra mile to win the bidding war going into his age 26 season. They’re not giving him $460M+ for his 30s. The time to sign him was two years ago, when you could get all those late-20 peak years and pair Soto with the remainder of Aaron Judge’s prime. Paying huge for his decline in 2030 would just be piling one bad outcome on top of another.
Jeremy asks: Who is the next breakout prospect for the Yanks? I thought Lovich would be the pick but your recent blurb on him didn't seem very bullish, beyond general conservatism for a low-minors player.
Wilberson De Pena. The Yankees got him in the Oswald Peraza trade and he was one of my Prospects to Know this spring. De Pena, 19, went into Thursday with a .360/.414/.697 (160 wRC+) line and 20.2 K% and 7.1 BB% in the rookie Florida Complex League. His seven homers are two more than any other FCL player. (De Pena’s 16.4% swinging strike rate is right about league average in the FCL.)
I’m gonna save time and quote myself from the Prospects to Know piece:
De Pena is super toolsy and ran a 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity last year. That’s tippy top of the scale for his age group (18-year-old players averaged 100 mph in 2025) … De Pena looks the part in a uniform at 6-foot-2 and 185 lbs. He’s a great athlete and a great runner who is still learning the outfield after spending more time as an infielder as an amateur. The big drawback is his pitch recognition and chase tendencies. De Pena doesn’t swing and miss a lot, but he swings A LOT, so much so that it’s a problem. Hone the approach and he’ll become very interesting very quickly.
Word is De Pena’s swing decisions have improved (but still need to get better), and, while we don’t have exit velocity data from the FCL, I’m going to take leading the league in homers as a sign he’s still hitting the ball hard. I got nothing about his outfield play. I reckon he's still refining his defense. De Pena is a year away from being a year away from top 100 prospect list consideration, but he’s on that trajectory.
Others enjoying a nice breakout (or breakout-ish) season include Jack Cebert, my No. 13 prospect. Last year’s 15th round pick has already reached Double-A and is running a 30.6 K% at that level (as a starter). I’m not a huge Kaeden Kent fan, but he is hitting .290/.352/.415 (104 wRC+) with 14 steals and 16.3 K% in High-A. Some think he’s a swing tweak away from 25-homer power.
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