July 13th, 2026: Chisholm, Weathers, Bednar, Schlittler, Hill

The amateur draft was held over the weekend and the Yankees used their top pick (No. 35) on Arkansas LHP Hunter Dietz. My quick take: I like it. Dietz has high-end power stuff and a high arm angle that produces whiffs and grounders. He would have been a slam dunk first round pick if not for the injury history, which is “just” a stress fracture in his forearm two years ago, not UCL damage or anything like that.

The Yankees used their second round pick on British Columbia HS LHP Sean Duncan and their eighth round pick on Dallas Baptist RHP Luke Pettitte (Andy’s son). I wrote up both as possible targets last week. Glad I got them in at the last minute. You can see all the Yankees’ picks at MLB’s Draft Tracker. I’ll have a draft recap, plus my annual Midseason Grades, later this week. Let’s now get into today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. After watching the Nationals this weekend, I will not complain about the Yankees bullpen the rest of the season. Okay, that’s a lie, but good gravy is that bullpen bad. Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas are two of the very worst pitchers in baseball and the Yankees did basically nothing against them (or Cade Cavalli, who’s Actually Good). Thank goodness for that bullpen. It came through in the clutch.

“I think it just doubles down on the belief for everybody. You have a tough week. When you do this every day, it can seem way bleaker than it is at times, especially in this city,” Trent Grisham told Greg Joyce after Saturday's comeback. “I think it just puts everybody at ease and reminds everybody of who we are.” 

James Smyth passed along word that this weekend was the first time Yankees history that they swept a series of at least three games despite trailing in the eighth inning or later every game. The Highlanders did it with three straight walk-offs against the Cleveland Naps in 1910, but never before had the Yankees done it. Fun weekend.

The traditional first half is in the books and the Yankees are 54-42 with a +91 run differential. It’s the AL’s best run differential by 56 runs. But also, the Yankees are four behind the Rays in the loss column, and one more head-to-head win gives Tampa the tiebreaker, so it’s kinda sorta more like five games back in the loss column. An up-and-down first half, it was. Here are a few thoughts on the weekend.

Clutch Jazz

Friday was shaping up to be a Very Annoying Loss. Against a team that allowed the third most runs per game in the first half, the Yankees mustered only two runs on solo homers through eight innings. They went single, stolen base, strikeout, strikeout, strikeout in the fifth inning. Littell, a former Yankees prospect (acquired for James Pazos in 2016, traded for Jaime García in 2017), allowed one run in four innings.

Thankfully, the Nationals bullpen looms to cure all ills, and manager Blake Butera seemed determined to put his worst relievers into the biggest spots. He got away with Tom Cosgrove in the eighth inning only because old pal Clayton Beeter struck out Paul Goldschmidt to strand the tying run at first. Butera then went to Matt Krook, yet another old pal, with a one-run lead in the ninth. This Matt Krook:

“The main reason is just because of what was coming up. Especially with Domínguez and Chisholm much better against right-handers,” Butera told Harvey Valentine about going to the lefty Krook. “… Historically, (Jazz) is a lot better against righties than he is lefties, and then he hits a home run against us and you’re sitting here wondering if that was the right thing to do.”

Chisholm did indeed hit a home run against Krook (video), an extremely cool go-ahead two-run shot that he stood at the plate and watched and willed fair. Jasson Domínguez singled as the previous batter to put the tying run on base and is 13-for-48 (.271) against lefties this year. Huh. Austin Wells followed with a solo homer off Justin Lawrence for an insurance run, and a Very Annoying Loss became a Very Fun Win.

"I was just looking for my pitch and I got it, and I connected well. I feel like I've been hitting a lot of balls hard and not getting the results that I needed. It was good to finally get one,” Chisholm told Byron Kerr. “I thought I missed it, I'm not going to lie. I thought I hit it too high again. I'm just happy that it just kept going."

It was Chisholm’s third go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later this season, tied with Zach Neto and Gavin Sheets for the most in baseball. He also did it May 18th against the Blue Jays and June 9th against the Guardians (videos). Here’s a fun leaderboard:

FanGraphs Clutch (min. 250 PA entering play Sunday)1. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 1.872. José Caballero: 1.873. Bryson Stott: 1.794. Jake Burger: 1.695. Daulton Varsho: 1.51

Clutch measures a hitter (or a pitcher) against himself. It compares his high leverage performance to his performance in all other situations, and the only hitter who has elevated his game in high leverage situations as much as Chisholm this year is Caballero, his teammate. Go figure, right? Jazz has had a pretty disappointing season overall, but he’s gotten some really big hits along the way too.

"He's such a dynamic player, and I feel like he got off to a tough start in April. Since then, been fine. But Jazz shouldn't be fine. He's better than that,” Aaron Boone told Kerr. “Hopefully he's setting himself up for a really good second half, because when he gets it going, he's one of those guys that changes the game in a lot of ways and even can carry teams at certain stretches. Good to see a big swing in a big spot."

For all the trade deadline talk, what the Yankees need more than anything is Chisholm (and a few others) doing what they were expected to do this season. Jazz went from a .481 SLG and 126 wRC+ last year to a .395 SLG and 95 wRC+. His season line might be beyond saving at this point, but if 126 wRC+ Chisholm shows up the rest of the way, I’ll take it. The Yankees need it.

Weathers abandons his fastball

Great finish to the first half for Ryan Weathers: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K on 91 pitches (video) around some bad defense Friday. The Nationals went into the game ranked eighth in AVG (.271) and second in SLG (.467) against fastballs, and Weathers’ fastball has been pretty awful this season. So, he went full Tanaka, and threw only 18 fastballs all night, including only three among his first 30 pitches.

“That was just going to the game plan and just out of respect for them,” Weathers said about the lack of fastballs (video). “… We were just landing (sweepers) really good backdoor. One of those pitches that are really tough to pull the trigger on, especially in attack counts. Tunneled sliders and changeups off that. Used sinkers when he needed to. Sprinkled in some four-seams when we needed to.”

20% four-seamers and sinkers is the lowest rate in any of Weathers’ 73 MLB starts, and not by a little either. He has no other starts under 30% and only four others under 40%. Opponents have a .301 AVG and .534 SLG against Weathers’ four-seamer/sinker this year. Also a .413 xwOBA and 16.0% whiff rate. They don’t swing and miss at his heaters much and they hit it hard. It’s a bad combination. 

Friday’s approach may be the path forward for Weathers. Use the fastballs as a show-me pitch and really lean on those secondaries. 20% is probably a bit extreme. Masahiro Tanaka lived in the 33% range his last few years with the Yankees, so maybe that’s the sweet spot with Weathers? Clearly though, his fastballs are an issue. He stayed away from them Friday and had success. It’s not a coincidence.

Weathers is up to 97.2 innings after Friday’s start, the most he’s ever thrown in a big league season. His career high is the 137.1 innings he threw between MLB and the minors in 2023. He’s getting close to uncharted territory. Starters keep getting hurt, so Weathers is needed in the rotation. The Yankees can’t put him in the bullpen yet. Whatever the role, it seems like less is more is the way to go with his fastballs.

“It’s definitely weird for me, but my job is to go out there and help the team win the ballgame,” Weathers said (video). “If me throwing less fastballs helps us win the ballgame – I want to go out there win every game I possibly can – if that can help the team win, then that’s what I need to do.”

Put ‘em to Bed(nar)

What a weekend for David Bednar, and what a few weeks for him. He threw 18 pitches in the eighth inning Friday, lobbied to stay in after the Yankees took the lead in the top of the ninth, then went 1-2-3 in the bottom half to finish the game. Bednar came back out the next day to nail down a two-run lead. He gave the Yankees nine very big outs over the weekend.

“I’m already ready to roll,” Bednar said after Saturday’s game (video).

Since hanging that curveball to Tyrone Taylor, Bednar has allowed one run in 20 innings with 22 strikeouts and five walks. Also 55.6 GB%. He’s faced 73 batters and 47 have either struck out or put the ball in the ground, or 64.4%. (MLB average: 50.3% strikeouts plus grounders). Bednar put his curveball on the shelf after the hanger to Taylor. He’s starting to bring it back, but he’s been primarily fastball/splitter lately.

Stuff-wise, you know who Bednar is? He’s a better version of Mark Leiter Jr. They both like to flip that slow curveball in for a called strike, then use the splitter for chases or grounders. Bednar has a good 3-4 mph on Leiter, so his stuff is several notches better, and he’s also much tougher. (Leiter always had an excuse when things went wrong.) Stylistically, they’re similar, but Bednar is muchbetter.

“I think just finding my form and being aggressive,” Bednar said about his recent success (video). “Being aggressive in the zone and trusting all three of my pitches. Whenever I’m able to be in the zone with all three, I’m able to have success.”

I appreciate Bednar’s flexibility. There are closers out there, including a few guys who passed through the Bronx in recent years, who don’t like to or don't want to pitch outside the ninth inning. Since the day he arrived we’ve seen Bednar’s give me the ball whenever bulldog attitude. The late innings are settled with Bednar, Fernando Cruz, and Brent Headrick. Now the Yankees have to tighten up the middle innings.

Miscellany

Chisholm wasn’t the only Yankee to hit a clutch go-ahead homer in Washington. Trent Grisham clubbed a go-ahead two-run shot off Beeter on Saturday (video). It was Trent’s sixth game-tying or go-ahead homer in the eighth inning or later since the start of last season. The Yankees have nine such homers this year, the most in baseball … Cam Schlittler gave up homers to two of the first three batters he faced Saturday, and he had some control issues throughout, but the end result was good : 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 K, 2 HR on 99 pitches. Curtis Mead’s homer was a mistake cutter over the plate. James Wood’s homer, I mean, you just have to tip your cap when a guy turns around a 98.5 mph heater here:

Wood is 6-foot-6. That is straight out of the Aaron Judge “tall hitter pulls his hands in and gets to an inside fastball because he’s just that damn good” playbook. I was scared every time Wood came to the plate this weekend. What a hitter … High leverage Paul Blackburn is becoming a thing, if it isn’t one already. Blackburn went six up, six down, two strikeouts on 21 pitches Sunday, on a day the bullpen was taxed and short. I was bracing for Camilo Doval to surface in the ninth. Doval was the only reliever the Yankees didn’t use in Washington. Speaks to where he is in the pecking order … It feels like it’s been a month since Cody Bellinger hit a ball hard in the air. He has only five 100 mph exit velocities on fly balls/line drives in his last 12 games and 37 batted balls, which dates back to June 28th in Boston. For reference, Austin Wells also has five 100 mph fly balls/line drives during that time, but on only 17 balls in play. The Yankees really need Bellinger to start driving the ball again. Ground ball singles are nice, but he's capable of so much more … Tim Hill gave up two homers Friday and another Sunday. He’s given up six homers in his last 14.2 innings, which is bad for any pitcher, and especially one whose whole thing is weak contact on the ground. Evidence is mounting that the clock has struck midnight on Hill … And finally, who’s the worse defender: Jasson Domínguez in the outfield or Amed Rosario at third base? Rosario made two errors Friday and is at -4 DRS and -5 OAA in only 25 games worth of innings at third, which seems impossible. It’s not for a lack of effort. Rosario takes extra ground balls almost every day. He just doesn’t have good defensive skills. 

Injury updates and roster news

Max Fried (elbow) threw 45 pitches or so in live BP against Somerset on Saturday. Boone said it’s likely the next step is a rehab game. Friday with Hudson Valley (in Brooklyn) or Scranton (at home) is a good bet (Somerset will be in Maine)… Carlos Rodón (elbow) could throw a bullpen during the All-Star break. Everything is going well with his throwing so far … Jazz Chisholm Jr. has to be happy it's the All-Star break. He fouled like 10 balls into his body on the road trip. He’s been nursing a toe thing for a while, plus guys are beat up in general at this point in the season. Chisholm could use a few days … I missed this last week: Brian Cashman told Joyce one reason they didn’t call up Elmer Rodríguez in Tampa last week is they have to manage his in-season options. Players can be sent to the minors five times within a season and ER(C) is already at three. The Yankees have two doubleheaders in the second half (Aug. 29th vs. Red Sox and Sept. 22nd vs. Rays) and must be mindful of how many times Rodríguez goes up and down … And finally, the Yankees released righty reliever Dylan Coleman last week. He had a 2.57 ERA (5.31 FIP) with 27.7 K% and a way too high 21.3 BB% in 21 innings with Scranton. Coleman hit 101.1 mph during offseason workouts and I thought maybe he’d become an up/down option, but nope. Wasn’t gonna happen with that walk rate.

Up next

All-Star festivities in Philadelphia, a few days off, then the Yankees will be back at it this weekend with a 2024 World Series rematch with the Dodgers at Yankee Stadium. That’ll be fun. Or ugly. I dunno. We’ll see how it goes next weekend. Here’s what’s coming up:

Monday: Home Run Derby (8pm ET on Netflix)

Tuesday: All-Star Game (8pm ET on FOX)

Wednesday: off-day

Thursday: off-day

Ben Rice is in the Home Run Derby and Bellinger, Judge, Rice, and Schlittler are All-Stars. Bellinger will replace Judge in the starting lineup. Schlittler will attend the All-Star Game but won’t pitch, he said Sunday. Schlittler doesn’t want to push himself even though Tuesday would be his normal between-starts throw day. Bit of a bummer, but I’m okay with it.

“On his recovery day, to go back out there throwing 100 miles an hour is something that he felt a little apprehensive about,” Boone told Joyce. “Certainly support that decision. Obviously he understands what’s at stake here in the second half for us and for him. I’m certainly supportive of his decision.”

Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Mitch Bannon he would’ve picked Dylan Cease to start the All-Star Game even if Schlittler was able to pitch. That’s the perk of being the All-Star manager. Also, Nick Kurtz went on the 10-day IL with a thumb sprain over the weekend. That may open the door for Rice to start at first base. The start will go to whoever’s next in the player voting, and I have no idea who that is.

The Yankees haven’t announced their rotation to begin the second half, though I would bet a shiny nickel Gerrit Cole starts Friday. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to use the All-Star break to give Schlittler a breather in the middle of the season. The Yankees could push him all the way back to next Tuesday, if they want. That would give him nine days between starts. We’ll see.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)