“Do you have an estimate for our coal production for the current month? The late summer?” Kivamus asked.
“I met all the mining foremen this morning because it is the beginning of the new month,” Duvas said. “After adding together the amount each foreman expects from the mine shafts under his charge, I believe the total production will exceed 100 wagon loads.”
Kivamus stared at him for a moment. “More than 100?”
The majordomo nodded. “That is their estimate.”
“That is excellent news!” Kivamus looked down at the shipment records again. “The past few months were difficult. We kept sending more workers into the mines, but the lack of tools meant output barely rose. Now tools are arriving regularly, and the smaller or more delicate pieces are being made from steel now. They will not break as easily, which means Cedoron’s workers can spend more time making new tools instead of repairing the same ones repeatedly.”
“Precisely.”
“Still… more than 100 wagon loads!” Kivamus repeated, still pleased by the figure.
Duvas smiled as well. “It is indeed very good news. We will not receive new acelos tablets until a few weeks after the processing hall in the eastern hills is ready, so coal must make up more of our revenue this month. That will be especially important with the 400-gold mercenary tribute approaching and the Count’s tax still waiting later in autumn.”
His smile faded as he studied another line in the ledger. “However, coal production is now finally beginning to rise with the number of miners, and tool production is also keeping pace. That creates a different problem.”
Kivamus grimaced. “Transportion.”
“Yes. For late summer, let’s assume the foremen meet a quota of 100 wagon loads. The visiting merchants can transport no more than 60, even after we use all their spare capacity. That leaves 40 wagon loads for Trevalo. He has already told us that the barge he has rented in Cinran for transporting coal to Ulriga, and bringing wheat back from the city can transport up to 20 wagon loads of coal at a time, or 40 every month. That means he will have to rent another barge by the end of this month to transport surplus coal once he is transporting more than 40 wagon loads of coal every month to Ulriga. Thankfully, that is not a difficult thing because if not in Cinran, then he can certainly find another barge to rent in Ulriga. The cost will have to be adjusted in the price of coal, but that should still be doable. We will talk about it with him when we meet next week. The current problem is of transporting coal from here to Cinran.”
Kivamus thought back to the calculation he had made only moments earlier. Trevalo’s nine wagons could move 36 wagon loads under the current schedule. They were finally reaching the point where Tiranat could produce more coal than its existing wagons could carry away from the village. It was a good problem to have compared to the shortage in the expected production of coal—which was the case in the past—but it was still a problem nonetheless.
Kivamus studied the figures for a moment.
“We might still be able to transport the full amount in late summer, though Trevalo will need to rent a 10th wagon when he returns. That would allow him to carry the remaining 40 wagon loads after the visiting merchants take 60.”
Duvas nodded, but his expression remained concerned.
“It might work for this month,” Kivamus continued. “The larger problem is what comes after, and we have to start planning for that in advance. If coal production keeps increasing by around 20 wagon loads every month, Trevalo may need to transport 60 wagon loads himself in early autumn. That would require a caravan of 15 wagons making four full trips.”
“And more guards for every journey,” Duvas said.
“Yes. We have enough guards now to increase the escorts, even if many of the recruits are still inexperienced. But we cannot keep expanding a single caravan indefinitely. At some point, renting more wagons in Cinran will also become difficult.”
The door opened before Duvas could reply.
Hudan entered the hall, wiping sweat from the back of his neck with a cloth. Dust marked his boots, and his shirt clung to his shoulders. He had likely come directly from the evening training, where he usually helped Nesser with the recruits unless another duty pulled him away.
He gave Kivamus and Duvas a nod before taking a seat near the table.
“You’re talking finances?” The captain snorted, looking at the several ledgers kept open on the table. “Again?”
“Wagons and transportation mostly,” Kivamus said, “which is also becoming a financial problem.”
Duvas turned the revenue ledger slightly so Hudan could see the figures, though the captain made no attempt to read them.
“Our wainwright made the first wagon in 15 days,” Duvas said. “The second took 12 days, and he expects to finish the third tomorrow. That means the latest wagon will have taken only 10 days.”
“He is getting faster with his apprentices gaining experience,” Kivamus said.
“He is, but it’s not fast enough to match the increase in coal production. We will have to tell him to take more apprentices so he can eventually finish one new wagon every week, at least. There is no shortage of iron now, and Cedoron has been providing the axle fittings and other iron parts on time. Once enough apprentices have been trained, the work should become easier.”
“Let the wainwright know,” Kivamus said. “He should begin looking for additional apprentices immediately. We will pay them from our village-worker quota, like we do for the other craftsmen.”
Duvas made a note in the ledger.
“Trevalo will still need to rent more wagons for a while,” Kivamus continued. “We don't need new vehicles just for transporting coal to Cinran. Some of the new wagons we build will also have to be sent to the coal mines to carry coal back to the village, as well as the other tasks which need wagons. But if the wainwright can build one wagon a week, we should begin catching up with demand within a few months.”
Hudan leaned forward slightly. “How large are you planning to make Trevalo’s caravan? I'll have to consider the security arrangements for it.”
“No larger than 10 wagons in a single group. Once he has more than that, we will divide the wagons into two caravans and provide separate escorts for each. Instead of one large caravan leaving every week, there will be a smaller one leaving every three or four days, although it will still take a full week for them to return.”
“That will require more guards overall,” Hudan said, “but it's true that it will also be easier to manage and defend 10 wagons than 15 or 20. I think this is a better idea. I'll start selecting the guards for it tomorrow.”
Kivamus nodded. “Do that. Later, if coal production continues increasing, we can divide the wagons into three caravans while keeping the same limit of 10 per caravan.”
He looked down at the coal figures again. “It is still not a permanent solution. The coal seams in the eastern hills are rich enough that production could keep rising for decades, perhaps even a century, although I hope we will move on to better energy sources long before that. Still, at the current rate, this system of transporting bulk cargo through wagons will reach its limit long before the mines do. I really wish there were a navigable river connecting Tiranat to Cinran, but wishing will not create one.”
“For now, we need more wagons, more caravans, and more escorts. We also need to repair Helga’s former inn on the northern road. If caravans begin leaving every three or four days, it will help if the wagon drivers and guards have a proper place to rest along the way. We can even make a full waystation there with cooking facilities, so the guards can have fresh food instead of relying on the stored rations they had taken a week ago from here.”
“If you mean keeping some servants and maids there so they can prepare food for the caravans,” Hudan commented, “we will have to post a team of guards to defend that waystation as well. Despite the recent recruitment I'm not sure if we have enough guards yet to manage that.”
Duvas shook his head. “That's hardly our only problem. Making a waystation will make the journeys easier, especially if the guards don't get enough time to rest because of the busy escorting schedule, but it will not reduce the shortage of wagons. Trevalo will still have to keep renting from Cinran for a few months.”
Kivamus exhaled. “I understand that, both of you. But the latest recruits are still green, without any real fighting experience, and we are already running a higher guards-to-population ratio then we ideally should, and yet you say the current number of guards is not enough. But it can't be helped. I'm not willing to hire more guards yet, or else the other projects will slow down too much. For now, you will have to manage with these men only.”
Hudan frowned for a moment, then nodded. “I can select some of the better recruits for caravan escort duty. Some of them are showing good progress in Nesser’s training. I will divide the experienced escort guards between the two caravans, then fill the remaining places with recruits.”
“That should work,” Kivamus said. “It will give them real experience without placing them in the most dangerous duty we have. We will reconsider hiring more guards in autumn.”
The northern road was far from safe, but Tiranat’s caravans no longer looked like easy targets, like that did last year when the village couldn't even buy food from Cinran without a serious risk of Nokozal’s group seizing the men as slaves and killing anyone who resisted. But thankfully that giant and his bandit group was long dead. Even a small caravan escort now carried sevaral crossbows, and enough bandits had learned what those weapons could do.
“The last attack of any notice was a week ago,” Kivamus continued with a smile. “Our guards handled it without a problem. I guess the current escort group can be called veterans now.”
Hudan gave a satisfied grin. “Calling it an attack is generous. Tesyb and the others shot the bastards down before they even reached the wagons. We had no deaths and no serious injuries. I'm sure the other guards would have done just as well even if Tesyb wasn't present with them. Two bandits still escaped, but that may help us more than capturing them would have.”
“They will tell others what happened,” Duvas said with a chuckle.
Hudan grinned. “That is the hope. A few stories about bandits dying before they could even reach a Tiranati caravan should make the next group think very, very carefully before they consider making us a target.”
Kivamus agreed. Feroy had often said fear worked best when someone else carried the story for you. The two survivors could spread the warning farther than any notice nailed to a tree.
Duvas turned back to the revenue section of the ledger. “There is some good news though. Summer will come to an end in a month and if the roads remain safe, autumn should be much better for our strongbox. Medicine sales will resume once the encampment is ready, and the larger processing hall should allow us to produce far more than before. Coal prices will also begin rising as people prepare for winter.”
“And food prices should begin falling once the current crop starts getting harvested and reaches the markets everywhere,” Kivamus said.
“Yes. Taken together, our balance should improve throughout the autumn months.”
Kivamus nodded. “We will need that improvement for the Count’s tax.”
The earlier estimate had already been troubling. Increased coal sales due to the new Ulrigan trading route would raise both Tiranat’s income and the amount owed to Count Ebirtas. But it couldn't be helped. For now, anyway.
“With coal revenue rising every month, the tax we owe may exceed the 1,800 gold we expected at the start of summer,” Kivamus said. “It could easily pass 2,000.”
“Probably a little more than that,” Duvas replied after taking a look at the ledger. “But if coal sales continue increasing, we should still be able to pay it on time without much difficulty.”
He hesitated before turning to another page. “The real problem begins after the tax is paid. Once the northern road gets blocked by snow, we will lose almost all external trade for nearly three months. The option of trading with Kirnos remains available to the west, but it is too small a market to absorb more than a minor amount of our goods. My guess is that Baron Farodas will just buy the minimum amount of coal they need, and put prohibitive taxes on any other trade. But even if he doesn’t, it's not a viable option to maintain our revenue during the winter. Our expenses will continue because the workers and guards will still receive wages, but revenue will fall to almost nothing.”
“We will still collect the 5 percent entry and sales tax from trade within the village,” Kivamus reminded.
“Yes, along with some rent from the tenements once they are occupied. But neither will come close to replacing the lost sales from coal, medicine, and paper.”
Kivamus leaned back in his chair.
Last winter had been difficult, but the village had survived because very few people were paid in coins. Most work had been exchanged for food, shelter, or other basic goods like clothes or soap, and Tiranat’s population had been far smaller.
That was no longer true.
Hundreds of workers now depended on regular wages. The guards were paid in coin. The village merchants were beginning to rely on customers who also received coin. Returning to barter would damage everything Kivamus had spent months building with the coin payments.
“We need a way to continue trading through winter,” he said. “I refuse to return to the barter system again. There has to be some way to prevent that.”