May 18th, 2026: Subway Series, Wells, Grisham, Schlittler, Rodríguez, Fried
The Yankees continue to be the Subway Series little brother. They’re 10-17 against the Mets since 2021 and 5-14 in their last 19 games at Citi Field. We joke about the Boone Swoon every summer but it is real and it looks like it came a few weeks earlier this year. Here is Tuesday’s post on Monday because that series deserves its own post.
1. Weekend thoughts. Terrible end to a terrible road trip. The Yankees went 2-7 on the trip, scored 28 runs in nine games, lost one of their top starters to injury, and watched a bullpen that has been springing leaks for weeks finally burst open. 20 runs in 31.2 innings for the bullpen on the nine-game trip. I’m gonna continue to hammer this until the Yankees fix it:
Average reliever fastball velocity1. Padres: 96.1 mph2. Rockies: 96.0 mph3. Brewers: 95.6 mph…MLB average: 94.5 mph…27. Yankees: 93.2 mph
Average reliever fastball whiff rate1. Guardians: 27.7%2. Padres: 25.8%3. Dodgers: 23.4%…MLB average: 20.0%…29. Yankees: 15.5%
This is what it looks like when you have a bottom 10-ish bullpen and add only a Rule 5 Draft pick (who got DFAed before he pitched in a game!) in the offseason. Sorry, I forgot Angel Chivilli. The Yankees added him too. Two lefty hitting catchers, no righty hitting outfielder, and a bullpen that can’t throw a fastball by hitters. I didn't work last season and the Yankees sat on it all winter.
It’s kinda funny that the Yankees played a five-man infield in the tenth inning Sunday, which was the right move given the situation (winning run at third with one out) and Tim Hill’s ground balls, and they screwed it up because no one knew whose ball it was and two infielders ran into each other. The Yankees were halfway to a smart idea. If that’s not the Aaron Boone era in a nutshell, I don’t know what is.
The best thing and the worst thing about this sport is they play every single day, so we get to watch these idiots again in a few hours. Here are a few thoughts on the weekend.
It’s time to do something about the lineup (and bullpen)
Austin Wells got two plate appearances Sunday, saw two pitches, and made three outs. He went 2-for-23 (.087) with 11 strikeouts on the road trip and is down to .173/.292/.264 (61 wRC+) on the year. Outside of July/August 2024, Wells has been a pretty bad hitter. He’s also getting worse as we get deeper into the season. There are no signs of life:
Wells has been so bad that he’s falling into Nichols Law territory. He’s a good defender*, not a great defender, but his defensive reputation is getting outsized because he can’t hit. This is unacceptable performance at the plate, even at catcher, where the bar might as well be underground.
* It’s most accurate to say he’s a great framer and okay at everything else defensively.
Anthony Volpe and Jasson Domínguez went to Triple-A. So can Wells. The Yankees will just have to ride with J.C. Escarra and I guess Ali Sánchez for the time being and hope Wells figures some things out. And that’s the goal here. To get Wells on track so he can come back later and help the Yankees more than he is now, which is not at all. (Escarra and Sánchez certainly aren’t any kinda long-term solution.)
The Yankees also have to get Trent Grisham out of the leadoff spot. He went 3-for-30 with 10 strikeouts on the road trip and is down to .166/.293/.338 (82 wRC+). You can not give this guy the most at-bats. The Yankees can wait for Grisham’s actual performance (.298 wOBA) to catch up to his expected performance (.340 xwOBA) with him hitting lower in the order. Do this:
1. Ben Rice2. Aaron Judge3. Cody Bellinger4. Giancarlo Stanton when he comes back
The bottom of the lineup has too many black holes. The Yankees have to get their good hitters to the plate as often and as quickly as possible. What I think will happen: Nothing, or Volpe will move to the leadoff spot because, to his credit, he had a great weekend. The Yankees can’t give this version of Grisham the most at-bats though, nor can they continue to trot this version of Wells out every day.
There’s not much else the Yankees can do with the lineup. I guess they could play Paul Goldschmidt more, but that’s how you get a worn down and ineffective Paul Goldschmidt. They don’t have an alternative to the impressively useless (and signed through 2027!) Ryan McMahon at third base until José Caballero returns. Spencer Jones is already playing against every righty*. What else can they do?
* Jones hit .160/.259/.253 with a 48.2 K% against lefties in parts of two seasons at Triple-A. That's why he hasn't played against lefties.
There are only so many buttons to push with the bullpen. Yovanny Cruz has given up a run in five straight appearances in Triple-A. Kervin Castro and Yerry De Los Santos are just depth guys, not saviors. Carlos Lagrange started Sunday, so he won’t come up anytime soon, though maybe it’s time to stick him in the bullpen and let him air it out. Do you really want to continue wasting 103 mph bullets in Scranton?
Shuffling bullpen roles is the baseball equivalent of rearranging furniture. David Bednar has been walking a tightrope all year. The Yankees could take him out of the closer’s role and I guess play matchups and go closer by committee? Changing roles isn’t gonna solve the problem. The Yankees need new relievers. However many they think they need at the trade deadline, it’s more.
The Yankees have played 47 games. That’s not quite the one-third mark of the season (that’s 54 games), but it’s close, and the one-third mark is when teams start to change things that need to be changed. I think Wells has to go to Triple-A for his own good at this point. The leadoff spot needs a new body. Something has to give with the bullpen. Will any of it actually happen today? Maybe the Yankees will surprise us.
Subway Schlitt
The only way teams can hit Cam Schlittler is by literally hitting him with comebackers. He got hit two more times Friday night. He’s gotten hit by a comebacker in each of his last three starts with several other near misses. In 2023, Mark Simon found pitcher injuries due to comebackers are on the rise. I’m not sure why (emphasis on exit velocity? max effort pitchers in poor fielding position?), but anecdotally, I buy it.
"I was joking with him out there, we need to get him an L screen,” Aaron Boone said (video).
Schlittler was again terrific Friday: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HR on 106 pitches (video). The home run was a Juan Soto solo shot in the seventh inning, when the Yankees already had a 4-0 lead and Schlittler was nearing the end of the line. One run in 6.2 innings is a 1.35 ERA. For the season, Schlittler has a … 1.35 ERA. Friday was a typical Schlittler start then. Here is your MLB WAR leaderboard:
1. Bobby Witt Jr.: +3.0 WAR2. Elly De La Cruz: +2.6 WAR3. Cam Schlittler: +2.5 WAR4. Aaron Judge: +2.5 WAR5. Cristopher Sánchez: +2.5 WAR
That’s what a 1.35 ERA with stellar under-the-hood numbers (1.82 FIP, 2.58 xERA, 30.1 K%, 4.9 BB%) in 10 starts and 60 innings will get you. I mentioned Friday that the Mets are just awful against good velocity and Schlittler bullied them in the zone and above the zone with his three fastballs. The heat map of his swinging strikes and called strikes tells the story of a great pitcher vs. a bad offense:
Pound the zone to get ahead, elevate to finish. I guess I can’t blame him given the state of the bullpen, but I was surprised Boone pushed Schlittler to 106 pitches, the second most of his career behind Game 3 of last year’s Wild Card Series (107 pitches). Max Fried is down and Schlittler will make his next two starts on normal rest. I thought maybe he’d be done after six, but nope, Boone rode him.
Schlittler is 26 starts into his big league career, postseason included, and he’s checked almost every box a young pitcher can check. Signature performance in a win or go home postseason game. Dominate the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Beat the Mets in the Subway Series. Fried’s down and Gerrit Cole is still a few rehab starts away. Until further notice, Schlittler is the ace, and not by default. He’s earned it.
ER(C) returns
Because they aren’t gonna rush Cole’s rehab after Fried’s injury, the Yankees needed a spot starter to bridge the gap, so Elmer Rodríguez returned over the weekend. His third MLB start went much better than the first two: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K on 64 pitches. The run came on three singles: a ground ball with eyes and two jam shots. It wasn’t like Rodríguez got smacked around.
Was the hook too quick? Eh, maybe we could say that in hindsight, but it was a 1-1 game and Rodríguez was about to face Juan Soto a third time. I thought Boone managed a great game Sunday, honestly. I loved the aggressive pinch-hitting moves that led to the four-run sixth inning. At the end of the day, the Yankees had a three-run lead with two outs in the ninth. That loss is on Bednar.
Anyway, Rodríguez was much more under control Sunday than in his first two starts. He put his slider on the back burner and used his curveball as his primary breaker, and did a good job flipping it in the zone for called strikes. Rodríguez also located his sinker and four-seamer competitively:
The Yankees rearranged their rotation slightly and gave Rodríguez the start Sunday for a few reasons. One, it bumped Ryan Weathers (career high 101 pitches last start) and Will Warren back a day and gave them extra rest. Two, it lined up the top four starters for this week’s Blue Jays series. Three, it kept Rodríguez from going too long between starts (he last pitched last Sunday). Easy to understand, no?
Boone said Rodríguez will stay in the rotation and make another start. That lines up to be Friday against the Rays. Assuming no surprises this week, Rodríguez will go down after that game, the Yankees will carry a ninth reliever for a few days, then Cole will return. Encouraging start for Rodríguez though, for sure. He was much more impressive than his first two times out.
Miscellany
Shoutout Anthony Volpe, who really did have a great weekend: 2-for-6 with seven (!) walks, including a walk with the bases loaded Sunday after falling behind in the count 0-2. Granted, it was against late career Sean Manaea, but still. The ideal outcome is Volpe plays well and forces the Yankees to keep him in the lineup even after Caballero returns … Carlos Rodón was terrible Saturday: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K on 88 pitches. Couldn’t finish innings (all six baserunners came with two outs), gave up two-strike doubles to lefties Carson Benge and Brett Baty, walked the generally unwalkable Bo Bichette, and did whatever the hell this was:
It’s only his second start back from elbow surgery, so I’ll give him some leeway, but Rodón is an elite idiot and that wild pitch/error was probably the dumbest play a Yankee will make this season (and that’s a high bar) … Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 8-for-15 (.533) with three doubles, three walks, and four strikeouts since he started stealing pants from his teammates in Baltimore. First he took Grisham’s, then he took Stanton’s. (He’s also using Caballero’s bat.) Chisholm had a little hot streak a few weeks ago and that didn’t last. This one needs to last, both for his sake (free agency) and the Yankees’ (lineup depth) … Spencer Jones is 3-for-19 (.158) with nine strikeouts as a big leaguer. On Sunday's YES broadcast, David Cone and Paul O’Neill both said they think it’s better for Jones to be in the big leagues right now than Triple-A, and who am I to argue? I just don’t enjoy watching him swing through eight pitches a game. There is way too much swing and miss in this lineup already. But, there are no better alternatives here, so Jones it is. Hopefully he runs into a mistake tonight and makes it all worth it … And finally, Jones broke poor Clay Holmes’ fibula with a line drive Friday. It left his bat at 111.1 mph. That’s rough. I know Holmes had a difficult 2024, but he was a good Yankee and I always liked him. That’s a crappy injury.
Injury updates and roster moves
Gerrit Cole (elbow) made his sixth rehab start Saturday: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K on 86 pitches (video) with Scranton. Statcast says his fastball averaged 97.0 mph and topped out at 99.6 mph. Cole’s 30-day rehab window expired yesterday, though UCL surgery guys can get up to three 10-day extensions. Boone said the plan is one more rehab start. Looks like Wednesday, May 27th, in Kansas City could be the day Cole returns? Maybe? Possibly? … Jasson Domínguez (shoulder) is doing well after the PRP shot and has started lifting weights and doing rehab work in the pool. He's still a ways off though.
Up next
A seven-game homestand against two AL East rivals. By mid-May standards, it’s an important week. Here is what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:
Monday vs. Blue Jays: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. LHP Patrick Corbin (7pm ET on YES)
Tuesday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Dylan Cease (7pm ET on YES, TBS)
Wednesday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Trey Yesavage (7pm ET on Amazon, MLBN)
Thursday vs. Blue Jays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
The Blue Jays are down four starters (José Berríos, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce, Max Scherzer) and even that wasn’t enough to save Eric Lauer’s job (6.69 ERA and 6.92 FIP). He got DFAed last week. I don’t know what the plan is for Thursday’s TBA spot. It was a bullpen game last time. The Blue Jays could do that again, or they could call up a spot starter. Probably depends on how the next few days go.
As a team, the Blue Jays are hitting .232/.301/.360 (87 wRC+) in May. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is slugging .381 in 193 plate appearances this year even after going deep Sunday. So many of the little things that went right last season (George Springer having a career best offensive season, the bench guys running 120 wRC+s, etc.) aren’t happening again, hence Toronto's 21-25 record and -11 run differential.
The Blue Jays were under .500 as late as Game 55 last season and they were basically the best team in baseball from that point on. It is a long, long season, and the Yankees are fully capable of faceplanting this week rather than beating an inferior opponent. It’s what they do during the Boone Swoon months.
2. Fried’s bone bruise. We’re gonna have to wait a little longer to see Gerrit Cole and Max Fried in the same rotation. Fried’s “elbow posterior soreness” is actually a bone bruise, tests revealed. The Yankees say Fried will be reevaluated in a few weeks to determine when he can begin throwing, so it’ll be a while. A bone bruise is better than flexor/UCL damage, but it’s still pretty bad. They can take a while to heal.
“I’m definitely bummed that I'm going to have to be missing some time, but overall happy that it doesn't look like it's going to be anything serious. No surgery required or anything like that,” Fried told Bryan Hoch. “You never want to go on the IL and miss games, but you also understand the long-term outlook still looks good.”
Garrett Whitlock suffered a bone bruise in his elbow in July 2023 and missed six weeks, though he suffered the injury as a starter and the Red Sox brought him back as a reliever. Figure it’ll take another 3-4 weeks on top of that to stretch Fried out. And, of course, every player and every injury is different. Fried could need less time, more time, whatever. Whitlock’s recovery at least gives us a ballpark idea what to expect.
You can talk yourself into believing a 6-10 week (?) breather in the middle of the season can be a positive (or at least a silver lining) because Fried will be fresher for the postseason, but eh, I don’t like playing that game. One of your top pitchers has an elbow injury. It’s not his UCL or flexor or whatever, but it’s still not good. I want to see Fried back and pitching effectively before talking about silver linings, you know?
Aaron Boone said the Yankees won’t bring Cole back ahead of schedule and that is 100% the right move. Breaking in a new UCL is a delicate process and Cole is so close to the finish line. Why accelerate his rehab and increase the risk of a setback? Even if it’s a 2% increase in risk, it’s just not worth it. I’m sure bringing Cole back is tempting, but I’m glad the Yankees aren’t doing it. Stick to the rehab plan.
“We don’t want to take him off track just for a short-term need. When he’s ready, then he’ll insert in,” Boone told Hoch about Cole after Fried’s injury. “… We just want to be disciplined coming off a serious injury where he missed a lot of time. We want that build to be a steady one, and one that puts him in the best position to come back and have a lot of success up here.”
The Yankees used Fried’s injured list stint to call up Elmer Rodríguez before his 15 days in the minors were up. They couldn’t carry a ninth reliever for a few days and call up ER(C) when needed because his 15 days extended beyond Tuesday, which is the latest they needed a fifth starter. Rodríguez started Sunday and he’ll start one more after that, then it’ll be Cole. A top 100 prospect ain’t a bad fill-in starter.
The offense is top heavy but still very good overall, bad road trip notwithstanding. The bullpen is shaky. This is a starting pitching team above all (rotation is third in ERA, first in FIP, second in xERA, first in WAR) and the Yankees just lost one of their top starters. Cole is coming back to fill in, but the Yankees won’t be at their best until they have Cole and Fried. For at least another few weeks, they’ll only have one. It’s a bummer.
3. 2026 draft prospect: Kentucky SS Tyler Bell. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Bell, 21 next month, did not sign with the Rays out of Illinois high school as the No. 66 pick in the 2024 draft. He was the highest unsigned pick that year. Bell tore the labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder on a diving play on Opening Day, missed about three weeks, then returned in early March and has been playing through it since. Here are Bell’s latest draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 21
ESPN: No. 29
FanGraphs: No. 19
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 4
MLB Pipeline: No. 23
Despite the torn labrum, Bell is hitting .339/.518/.559 (148 wRC+) with six home runs and more walks (17.7%) than strikeouts (17.1%) this spring. He also played well in limited time in the Cape Cod League and for Team USA last summer. Here’s video and here’s part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
A switch-hitter, Bell is proficient from both sides of the plate. He has the bat speed and strength to generate 20 homers per season once he learns to lift balls in the air more consistently. He has a decent approach at the plate but can get too passive at times and has trouble staying back on changeups … Bell has all of the ingredients to play a solid shortstop. He has average speed but a quick first step, smooth actions, reliable hands and a strong arm capable of making throws from any angle necessary. His defensive instincts and athleticism would allow him to play almost anywhere on the diamond
MLB Pipeline says Bell’s shoulder “will require surgery that will sideline him for several months” after the season. That’s the only reason I’m writing him up and the only reason he might make it to the Yankees at No. 35. They’ve used their top pick on injured players in the past (Andrew Brackman and Clarke Schmidt), though a hitter with a torn labrum is a different animal than a pitcher with a torn UCL.
Bell is a draft-eligible sophomore who could plausibly go back to school next season, show his shoulder is fully healthy, and come out as a top 15-ish pick next year. It could be that no team will meet Bell’s asking price given the injury. That’s another reason he could fall to the Yankees at No. 35. He’s hurt and he may want top half of the first round money anyway. (Bell’s got a six-figure NIL deal to keep him afloat.)
The No. 35 pick has a $2,826,700 slot value and the Yankees have a $7,342,800 bonus pool overall. It wouldn’t be too hard to stretch the No. 35 pick’s bonus to $4M through underslot bonuses in the later rounds and the 5% overage (before the real penalties kick in). $4M is No. 22 pick money. If Bell wants $5M or so (No. 16 pick money), I don’t see how the Yankees could make it work without tanking the rest of their draft class.
The thought here is Bell with a healthy shoulder would be a top 15 pick, maybe top 10, but the injury and a possibly big asking price could push him down draft boards. The Yankees basically never have access to top 10-15 kinda talent. If they want a player like that, they’ll have to assume injury risk and pay top dollar. Perhaps it’s worth doing to get Bell, a switch-hitting shortstop, if he does fall to No. 35.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)