Earlier this week Mike Petriello wrote about Aaron Judge's pursuit of his fifth 50-homer season, which would be a record. Judge, Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, and Sammy Sosa are the only players with four 50-homer seasons. Judge is hitting .250/.381/.554 (158 wRC+) and he’s on pace for 51 homers even though he hasn’t felt like AARON JUDGE at any point this season. There are some under-the-hood things that could be signs of age-related decline (exit velocity and bat speed down, fastball whiff rate up, chase rate up, etc.), and if he’s declining, then he’s declining, but we’re still talking about a really great hitter. Just not an otherworldly hitter anymore, or at least not right now. Here now is today’s post.
1. Cole returns Friday. Six days ago Aaron Boone said the Yankees would remain patient with Gerrit Cole because they “want to be disciplined coming off a serious injury where he missed a lot of time,” but apparently something changed. Cole will return tonight rather than make one more rehab start. I don’t think Boone would say what he said about staying disciplined if it wasn’t really the plan. Cole might’ve talked them out of that last rehab start.
“Didn’t want to make any rash decisions just because Max was out. This isn’t about that spot,” Boone told Mike Fitzpatrick. “We were going to play the long game with this, but in just like all the talks with the trainers, pitching group, Gerrit, his support group and all that, we just felt like he has done everything he needs to be ready to compete now at this level.”
Cole told Gary Phillips: “When we all looked at it and just considered all the variables, it checked all the boxes. I’m confident, I’m optimistic, but I definitely know there’s some work in front of us. It’s just the right time to take the next step.”
I would prefer the Yankees to have Cole make that last rehab start and stick to the original plan, but I don’t think they’d do this unless he checked the necessary medical/rehab boxes. Either that or the Yankees are panicking, which would be a different kind of bad. (They’re not panicking. What is there to panic about?) So, rather than have to wait another week, Cole will be back tonight, for an important game too.
“I’m most looking forward to just competing at the highest stage,” Cole told Phillips ahead of tonight's series opener with the Rays. “We have a first place club coming in. They have the best record in the American League. Divisional opponent. So pretty high stakes for a Friday night in May.”
Cole’s stuff was plenty good during his rehab. He hit 99.6 mph last weekend, which was his fastest pitch since August 2023. Command is usually the last thing to come back after elbow reconstruction and that doesn’t always show up as walks (three in 29 rehab innings). It can mean leaving a fastball middle-middle rather than elevated, hanging a slider, etc. We’ll see what Cole’s command looks like tonight.
Putting all that aside: Hooray, Gerrit Cole is back! Unless Spring Training games and rehab games excite you, we haven’t seen Cole on the mound since the 2024 World Series. It’s too bad he’s replacing Max Fried rather than joining him, but they’ll be paired together soon enough (I hope). I’m excited to see Cole pitch again. I know things aren’t always smooth after Tommy John, but I’m still excited to have him back.
“It’s been tough. I’ve missed it quite a lot,” Cole told Phillips. “… There’s been some blessings along the way as well. We’ve talked about my family and spending time with my boys, but largely I’m just looking forward to being really tired and having that exhaustion mean something, like high stakes. You feel like it’s worth it, like it’s fulfilled, and it’s obviously a tremendously exciting environment.”
2. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees won the first two games this week and still wound up fighting to a draw in the four games against the Blue Jays. The offense is in such a rut that they let Jeff Hoffman retire all five batters he faced the last two nights. Jeff Hoffman! Nice of the Yankees to show the Blue Jays their “bullpen game in Game 4 of the ALDS” strategy is repeatable with that no-show Thursday.
Aaron Judge is slumping hard (.191/.321/.298 with 33.3 K% since the start of the Brewers series) and so is Ben Rice (.182/.224/.418 and 27.6 K%), though Rice is at least slugging, like Tuesday’s go-ahead homer (video). The “the Yankees struggle to score when Judge doesn’t hit” thing is in full effect this year. Last year the Yankees were able to get away with it when Judge didn’t mash. Not this year though.
The Yankees had 12 baserunners the last two games and four were gifts thanks to poor defense, but they didn’t capitalize. That’s what happens when Judge and Rice go a combined 1-for-16 with eight strikeouts (five by Judge), and you have a lineup with a few too many of what I’ll generously describe as glove-first players. The next 80-ish wRC+/30-ish K% hitter is never too far away, waiting to kill an inning.
As a team, the Yankees have the fifth lowest in-zone swing rate and the third lowest in-zone contact rate. They swing at fewer strikes than most teams and, when they do swing at strikes, they make less contact than most teams. How is that supposed to work, exactly? This offense feels very disjointed. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on the last few days.
Grisham hurt, Caballero’s imminent return
The “who goes down when José Caballero comes back?” question almost answered itself. Trent Grisham exited Wednesday’s game with left knee discomfort after tweaking it on a slide into second base. He stayed in to play defense the next two innings, which is the Yankee Way. I guess playing two innings with a sore knee is better than playing two months with a concussion or four months with a torn labrum.
ANYWAY, tests showed no structural damage and Grisham is day-to-day. It sounds like he could be back in the lineup as soon as tonight. A Grisham injured list stint would have cleared a spot for Caballero, who is eligible to be activated today. The Yankees sent Spencer Jones down after Thursday's game instead. They had three options to open a roster spot for Caballero:
1. Send Spencer Jones down. He’s been overmatched (4-for-24 with 12 strikeouts) and Aaron Boone wouldn’t use him against lefties, which is understandable given his 48.2 K% vs. LHP in Triple-A. In the seventh inning Wednesday, the choice with two runners on was Jones vs. lefty Mason Fluharty or Amed Rosario vs. righty Jeff Hoffman, and Boone chose Rosario. I didn’t work out, but it was the right move. Jones was very bad even if his Statcast sliders were hilarious:
2. Send Anthony Volpe down. Volpe cooled the last few days and is 5-for-23 (.217) with seven walks (.400 OBP) since returning. Even if he’d mashed, it would’ve been way too soon to know if anything had really changed. I thought Volpe was going down for Caballero. I understand why Jones went down, but I thought it would be Volpe. Shows what I know.
3. Send Max Schuemann down. Schuemann’s a fine bench guy and is 4-for-14 (.286) with five walks (.474 OBP) in limited time. Caballero can do the versatility thing, so the Yankees didn't have to keep Schuemann. That said, Caballero has only played shortstop this year, even in Spring Training. The next time he plays third base or whatever will be the first time in 2026.
The other day Boone said Caballero has “earned the right” to stay at shortstop, but he also said Gerrit Cole would make one more rehab start, so who knows. I'm not sure what the plan is with Caballero and Volpe. Is Caballero the starting shortstop and Volpe a shortstop-only bench guy? Is Volpe the shortstop and Caballero a super utility guy? Will Volpe start moving around?
Caballero is the better player and should be the everyday shortstop, but I think we all know Boone won't be able to resist Volpe. My guess is Volpe gets most of the starts at short with Caballero seeing time all around the field and playing regularly. We'll see. The important thing is Caballero is coming back. The Yankees really need his energy (and his pre-injury bat).
The Ninth Inning Curse
Great job by David Bednar on Monday and Camilo Doval on Tuesday turning two-run leads into one-run wins. The Yankees need to improve their record in one-run games (now 5-11) and those guys took one for the team. The offense gave one back by scoring a run off Louie Varland on Wednesday, turning a two-run deficit into a one-run loss, but at least the Yankees were in the red with one-run games this week.
For real though, this bullpen will be the death of me. Not the entire bullpen, just the closer’s role. The setup work was pretty good this week (Jake Bird has been sneaky great lately) but the ninth inning was stinky. Only once in the last nine games in which the Yankees took a lead into the ninth inning did they have a 1-2-3 ninth. Can we get an easy win once in a while? Every ninth inning is high stress.
“That’s what makes baseball fun,” Ben Rice, who has a different definition of fun than I do, told Bryan Hoch after Tuesday’s win. “Of course we’d rather it be a nice 1-2-3, but the reality is it’s not always going to be that way. When they’re threatening with runners in scoring position, it’s our job to lock it in and stop them.”
I was surprised Boone went to Bednar for the save Monday only because he had thrown 44 pitches the previous three days, and they were 44 mostly stressful pitches. I am not surprised Bednar is still the closer. Boone has shown us he will stay patient and wait a while before demoting his closer. Things have to become untenable, not just bad, and I think Bednar still falls into the “bad” category.
Bednar’s velocity is down more than 1 mph across the board this year and he’s become a junkballer in the sense that he throws his fastball only 39% of the time. It was 44% last year and 56% in 2024. It’s a heavy diet of curveballs and, especially lately, splitters. This tells the story of Bednar’s season:
The fastball is getting hit hard (.643 SLG) and so is the curveball (both walk-off home runs came on hanging curves). Throwing George Springer three straight splitters with two on and one out after falling behind in the count 3-0 was gutsy as hell, but splitters were Bednar’s only option, really. He wasn’t competitive with his fastball and curveball that night:
Monday was Bednar’s second straight day, third time in four days, and sixth time in 10 days. Add in the World Baseball Classic and that man has worked a lot this year. Maybe he needs a Dodgers Vacation and a little 15-day IL timeout? Tell him not to pick up a ball for a week, focus on his recovery, and then hopefully come back with a second wind and a livelier heater? I dunno. Maybe it’ll work.
The bullpen had a 3.03 ERA (3.57 FIP) in 77.1 innings in May. That breaks down into a 4.60 ERA (4.07 FIP) in the ninth inning and a 2.63 ERA (3.44 FIP) in all other innings. Most of that ninth inning damage is Bednar. Not all of it, but most of it. At least these last few weeks, the bullpen problem is really just a Bednar problem, or maybe just a ninth inning problem. It’s The Curse of Devin Williams.
The thing is, I think Bednar is still the best closing option. I don’t trust Doval, who’s trending toward a non-tender, and Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill are too important as matchup/fireman options in the middle of the game. Giving Bednar a clean inning seems like the best move right now. He has to be better though. For sure. Ideally he’ll find another gear with his fastball and give himself another out pitch.
“Just find a way. There’s a way out of every situation,” Bednar told Hoch. “I think it really just comes down to executing one pitch at a time and really slowing it all down. As simple as it sounds, it’s a lot harder to do … It’s digging deep, getting a little gritty, and finding a way.”
The other reliever named Cruz
The Yankees sent Elmer Rodríguez down Monday, which was the first indication Gerrit Cole would return ahead of schedule. They needed an extra reliever to help a tired bullpen, sure, but it left them without a starter Friday and no good options. Rodríguez and Brendan Beck couldn’t come up because of the 15-day rule. It was either Cole, a Paul Blackburn/Ryan Yarbrough bullpen game, or, like, Adam Kloffenstein.
Yovanny Cruz came up as the extra reliever and impressed in his MLB debut Wednesday. He went six up, six down, three strikeouts on only 15 pitches (video). 13 strikes too. Throwing strikes has long been Cruz’s biggest issue, and we saw it in his second appearance Thursday. He faced three batters and went fly out (in a 3-0 count), double, hit batter (after nearly hitting the batter earlier in the at-bat). Good Wednesday, not-so-good Thursday.
“Thank God for this opportunity, the opportunity the team gave me there. I felt a little nervous going in but very happy with the outing,” Cruz said after his MLB debut (video). Here are the fastest pitches thrown by a Yankees reliever not named Camilo Doval this season:
1. Yovanny Cruz: 100.9 mph2. Yovanny Cruz: 100.6 mph3. Yovanny Cruz: 100.5 mph4. Yovanny Cruz: 99.9 mph5. Yovanny Cruz: 99.8 mph6. Yovanny Cruz: 99.6 mph5. Yovanny Cruz: 99.5 mph6. Yovanny Cruz: 99.4 mph7. Angel Chivilli: 99.4 mph
The Yankees sent Cruz down after Thursday's game to open a roster spot for Cole. That's what I figured would happen, though I did wonder if Wednesday’s outing was enough to keep Cruz around and give him a longer audition. The bullpen needs help and velocity. Cruz definitely offers the latter. Maybe he can give the former too.
The Blackburn/Yarbrough dual long man thing has run its course. It made sense earlier in the season because the Yankees were waiting for some guys to get healthy, Cam Schlittler didn’t have a full Spring Training, and we didn’t know what to expect from Ryan Weathers (remember how bad he was in the spring?). The Yankees wanted to protect themselves. It doesn’t make too much sense to stick with it now.
I’m not a huge Cruz fan because it is a straight fastball, but I’m not out on him. Sometimes it’s best not to overthink things. The bullpen’s been shaky and the kid who throws 100 had an impressive debut. I don't think it's a crime against humanity that Cruz was sent down, but I would've seen this through a bit longer. He'll be back soon enough. I'm sure of it. (Blackburn/Yarbrough aren’t exactly irreplaceable if you cut one.)
Miscellany
I don’t love that Cam Schlittler is being pushed over 100 pitches this early in the season, especially since it looked like he emptied the tank to finish the sixth inning Wednesday. He went back out for the seventh and yeah, two dinky infield hits, but he also walked the unwalkable Jesús Sánchez (4.5 BB%) and couldn’t put Andrés Giménez away after getting ahead in the count 1-2. That turned into an 11-pitch bases loaded walk. I get the bullpen is sketchy, but the Sánchez walk should have been it, if you had to send Schlittler out for the seventh at all … I couldn’t believe that Ernie Clement homer got out Monday. Ryan Weathers left the changeup middle rather than hit the intended target away, but it’s not like he hung it. Come on man:
The Yankees hit two or three balls on the screws and watched them die on the warning track that night, but that carried out. Stupid sport sometimes. I thought Weathers was better than his line (5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR on 90 pitches) and the Yankees ultimately won the game, so who cares about the homer. Still annoying in the moment though … And finally, there was another entry into my favorite weird subplot of the season Monday: J.C. Escarra successfully framing pitches he doesn’t actually catch. It started in Spring Training (video) and happened again in Houston and earlier this week (videos). If it’s a strike, it’s a strike, but it’s a funny visual. I hope the Yankees get the final out of the World Series this way.
Injury updates and roster notes
Giancarlo Stanton (calf), he still hasn’t ramped up his running progression. He’s been hitting for a while now. The calf just hasn’t healed enough for him to run. The Yankees really, really, really miss Big G … Jasson Domínguez (shoulder) has started hitting off a tee, which is Step 1 in the hitting progression. I can’t say I expected the Yankees to miss El Marciano this much, but they kinda do.
Up next
An important weekend series against the annoying ass Rays. They’re six up in the loss column while outperforming their run differential by five wins and their BaseRuns by seven wins. Tampa is not actually this good. I’m confident they won’t continue at a 111-win pace, but they are annoying and apparently better than I expected. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday vs. Rays: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Nick Martinez (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday vs. Rays: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (1:30pm ET on YES)
Sunday vs. Rays: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Shane McClanahan (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday at Royals: TBA vs. TBA (3:30pm ET on ESPN)
(The TBAs for Monday’s Memorial Day matinee line up to be Schlittler and Michael Wacha.)
The Yankees haven’t played a team with a winning record since the Milwaukee series, so they’re still 1-8 against quote-unquote good teams. However many times you think we’ll hear that stat this weekend, it’ll be more. Rob Mains (subs. req’d) dug into this earlier this week and surprise, record against .500 or better teams doesn’t tell us anything about what’ll happen in the postseason. It has no predictive value.
That doesn’t mean these games aren’t important, of course. The AL is so bad and the Yankees will have to beat the Rays to catch the Rays. They can’t count on other teams to beat them. The more balanced schedule means they’ll have fewer opportunities to do it too. 13 head-to-head games rather than 19. There is a long way to go in a long season, but take the series this weekend and gain some ground, por favor.
3. 2026 draft prospect: California HS OF Blake Bowen. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Bowen, 18, is a former wire receiver/linebacker standout who gave up football last year and committed to baseball full-time. He’s since shot up draft boards thanks to his showcase performances and because teams have gotten to see more of him as a baseball player. Here are Bowen’s latest draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 54
ESPN: No. 55
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 48
MLB Pipeline: No. 67
Bowen is a right-handed hitter and he looks like a football player at a listed 6-foot-3 and 215 lbs. He’s a big, strong, physical dude. Here’s video and here is part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Bowen is a veritable toolshed … (He’s) a physical right-handed hitter who has always been able to punish the baseball. It might be 70-grade raw power, but the question in the past was if he would hit enough to get to it. There’s been in-zone swing-and-miss in the past, but he found the barrel a lot more consistently over the summer, leading evaluators to be more bullish on his hitability … With plus athleticism that plays on the basepaths and in the outfield, Bowen has the chance to stick in center field, though he has the plus arm to profile well in right field if needed. He also gets high marks for his makeup and high energy play on the field.
Although he performed well in showcases, including hitting a ball 105 mph at Perfect Game USA (that was 99.96th percentile), there is some thought that the visual evaluation of Bowen’s swing doesn’t align with the contact rates he put up, and that he could have a harder time against better arms. There’s a bit of a disagreement between the data and the eye test, which just means more digging is needed.
Bowen is committed to Oregon State and whichever team drafts him will do so believing they can turn the tools and athleticism into an actual baseball player as he gains more experience. It’s a boom or bust approach. Sometimes these two-sport guys click (White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery was a top amateur basketball player, for example), sometimes they just can’t get up to speed at the next level.
4. Rapid fire thoughts. Gio Urshela, the most happy fella, announced his retirement earlier this week. His grand slam in Game 2 of the 2020 Wild Card Series (video) is one of my favorite moments of the Aaron Judge era. Urshela hit .270/.314/.407 (97 wRC+) with 73 home runs and +7.9 WAR in parts of 10 MLB seasons. That breaks down into .292/.335/.480 (118 wRC+) with 41 homers and +5.5 WAR in 291 games as a Yankee, and .258/.303/.366 (85 wRC+) with 32 homers and +2.4 WAR in 560 games as a Not Yankee. Unless you include DJ LeMahieu, who was more of a super utility guy than the everyday player at one position, Urshela is the best third baseman the Yankees have had since Alex Rodriguez, and it’s really not all that close. Happy trails, Gio.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Jeremy asks: Can we start a petition to get Judge a day off? Guy has played (and started) every single game this year and is struggling hard recently. I know they need him in the lineup, but if they can't afford to give him one day off then they don't deserve to win the division.
It’s hard to take Aaron Judge out of the lineup and I’m not sure a day off is what he needs anyway. Sitting a struggling player isn’t the fix fans (all fans, not just Yankees fans) think it is. I am surprised Judge hasn’t gotten more DH days since Giancarlo Stanton got hurt though. He’s DHed only five times in the 25 games without Stanton. That's a missed opportunity, especially with Spencer Jones on the roster capable of playing (a good) right field. Judge is 34 now and he’s a big man with a big body with a lot of innings on it. Stanton’s absence was a chance to get Judge a bunch of DH time and half-days, but the Yankees haven’t done it. Judge is struggling hard, for sure, but he'll be back to vaporizing everything soon enough.
Tyler asks: Pitch tunneling is all the rage these days, and a lot of guys are having success with high fastballs, at least in part because they also have a curveball or something else that can tunnel with the high fastball and come down for a strike. Cam Schlittler doesn't really throw any off speed, but still seems to have some success getting chases above the zone. Why is this? Is his vertical break so good that it fools hitters even without the threat of off speed?
A lot of it is the velocity and movement, as obvious as that sounds. By Stuff+, Schlittler has the third best four-seamer (118), the fourth best sinker (113), and the second best cutter (105) among qualified pitchers. He throws hard and the individual pitches have good movement traits (that includes induced vertical break on the four-seam), plus he’s a big dude with one of the higher release points in the game. It’s great stuff and an unusual look for hitters. That is the most basic explanation of Schlittler dominance.
There is also a tunneling component, which is something people smarter than me have tried to measure but have been unable to fully pin down. A few weeks ago Alex Fast put together this great GIF showing how Schlittler’s three fastballs work together. These are from the same at-bat vs. Junior Caminero:
The individual pitchers are excellent and Schlittler tunnels them well. The four-seamer, sinker, and cutter got on top of the hitter quickly and they look similar out of his hand, long enough to where the hitter’s brain has already told his body to start his swing before fully reading the pitch. It’s a minor miracle anyone ever gets a hit these days. Pitchers are so nasty and the hitter has so little time to react.
Schlittler’s had a big-ish drop off the third/fourth time through the order this season, which means he’s gone from untouchable the first two times through to average-ish thereafter. It’s a .191/.249/.291 (.243 wOBA) line and 24.3 K-BB% the first two times through the lineup. It’s .250/.363/.313 (.314 wOBA) and 21.2 K-BB% after that. We saw it Wednesday. The outs didn’t come so easy the third time around.
As good as he is and as good as the three fastballs are both together and as complements to each other, there might be a point of diminishing returns. Schlittler has thrown his curveball 7% of the time and his true slider 2% of the time this year. It might be worth bumping the curveball usage up to, say, 12% to 15%, just to give hitters another look. They’re not hitting his fastballs, but more variety could make him even better.
Several asks: What about Ryan Jeffers?
The Jeffers questions flooded in during the 30-ish hour period between Austin Wells hitting into the inning-ending double play in the tenth inning last Sunday and Jeffers breaking his hamate bone Monday night. That’s gonna cut into his trade value and likely his production given how things usually go in the weeks after hamate surgery. Jeffers was having a terrific season before the injury:
The under-the-hood numbers (.390 xwOBA) match the performance too. Jeffers moved back in the box a few years ago and stopped swinging as hard, which improved his strikeout and swinging strike rates. He’s selling out for contact basically, which cost him some power in 2025, but not a ton overall. Even if it were perfectly healthy, I’d say you should expect 2024-25 Jeffers the rest of the season, not 2026 Jeffers, and 2024-25 Jeffers was pretty good.
Jeffers, 29 next month, rates as an average defender, which breaks down into being a good framer and an okay everything else. Catching coach Tanner Swanson worked with Jeffers when he was with the Twins, so the Yankees have some familiarity and added insight. Jeffers would be a step down from what the Yankees are used to behind the plate, but he’d be a big upgrade over what their catchers give them at the plate.
You don’t trade for Jeffers to platoon with Wells. He’s too good. You trade for him to be the starter. Jeffers is better than Wells and he would also fit the lineup nicely as a righty bat with limited swing-and-miss in his game. That’s pretty much exactly what the Yankees need right now, offensively. The injury complicates things. Before that, I was all for a Jeffers trade. Now there’s at least some pause.
Teams don’t like to bring in new catchers during the season because there’s so much they have to learn on the fly. As best I can tell, the last starting catcher to get traded at the deadline was Christian Vázquez in 2022, and even then Vázquez was no Jeffers. He was a rental and he fetched two Grade-C prospects, though Wilyer Abreu has exceeded expectations (the other prospect, Enmanuel Valdez, didn’t).
The Twins can make Jeffers the qualifying offer after the season, so the trade package starts with the equivalent of a late first round pick. Where the bidding war takes it from there, I don’t know, but I can’t imagine you’ll get him for the Vázquez package. It will help that so few contenders need a catcher*. The bidding war for Jeffers may not be as intense as you’d expect given the quality of the player.
* The Athletics (Shea Langeliers) Blue Jays (Alejandro Kirk), Braves (Drake Baldwin), Brewers (William Contreras), Cardinals (Iván Herrera), Cubs (Carson Kelly), Dodgers (Will Smith), Mariners (Cal Raleigh), Phillies (J.T. Realmuto), and Tigers (Dillon Dingler) are all set behind the plate. The competition for Jeffers would be who? The Guardians, Rays, Padres, and maybe the Rangers and Red Sox?
As bad as Wells and J.C. Escarra have been, I don’t expect the Yankees to spend significant resources on a catcher. They really do believe in Wells and think there’s more offense in the tank, which isn’t crazy, but at some point we need to see it. I thought a Jeffers trade was unlikely even before he got hurt. Add in the injury, the kind that saps power even after the player returns, and it’s even less likely.
William asks: Christian Vázquez. If the Astros fall out of it, what about adding Vázquez at the very least to just have a right handed catcher to complement?
Vázquez strikes me as a much more realistic target than Ryan Jeffers, who will require a pretty good trade package even with the hamate injury. The AL is terrible, but the Astros are damn near out of it already (20-31 and -56 run differential), and it’s not like their postseason hopes hinge on the backup catcher. I’m sure Vázquez will be available in the coming weeks.
Now 35, Vázquez is having his best season in years, hitting .247/.316/.393 (102 wRC+) with defense that still rates as plus. His three homers were legit shots, not cheapies into the Crawford Boxes, though there is basically nothing under the hood to suggest that slash line is real. Vázquez had a 78 wRC+ in his last 1,800 plate appearances prior to this season, and his contact quality stinks:
J.C. Escarra has been a 61 wRC+ hitter in his very limited time as a big leaguer and the only difference between him and Vázquez defensively is Escarra already knows the pitching staff. Is it worth it to make what would probably be a lateral move on offense, albeit in a more useful way platoon-wise, at the cost of a learning curve with the staff plus whatever you have to trade to get Vázquez?
It might be, honestly. It shouldn’t cost much to get Vázquez and the platoon advantage is a real thing. It would be a (very) small upgrade on the margins of the roster but an upgrade nonetheless. I keep hammering the Yankees about not having a righty catcher, but, to be fair to them, it’s not like there are a ton of good catchers out there. Vázquez might be the best realistic target aside from Jeffers.
(This is why these things have to be addressed in the offseason, when there are more options available and more time to get it done. During the season, you’re at the mercy of sellers and when they decide to sell, at a time when nearly half the league gets into the postseason and every team thinks they’re in it. The need for a righty hitting catcher didn’t sneak up on the Yankees. It’s been obvious since last year.)
Jackson asks: Isn’t the best solution before we reach the trade deadline, to try any/some/all of the starters in auditions into the back end? Several would exceed their innings limits if left in the starting rotation and their long term arm health would best be served this year with an extended period in the pen anyway. That would include: Cole (return from surgery), Rodon (ditto), Weathers (all time innings pitched high by a large margin were he to stay a starter), Schlittler (ditto)? Heck, even trying Gil so he could air it out for a few innings at a time might put him at 100mph and that might be better than what they’re putting out now (assuming he’s healthy).
It’s easier said than done because the Yankees would still need starters. If you put, say, Ryan Weathers in the bullpen, that likely means starts for Elmer Rodríguez or maybe even Brendan Beck, which could be a net downgrade. My solution to the workload concerns is extra rest when possible, a six-man rotation, etc. Spread out their starts as much as you can, not a midseason shift to the bullpen. Moving good starters to the bullpen is something that happens when you get to the postseason, not earlier.
By regular season win probability, the Dodgers won the World Series with the No. 25 bullpen in 2025 and the Rangers won with the No. 26 bullpen in 2023 (the 2024 Dodgers were No. 7). They labored through the regular season with a shaky relief crew, then roles changed and some personnel changed in October, and it was a different bullpen. You have to win regular season games to get to the postseason, absolutely, but regular season bullpens and postseason bullpens are different animals. It’s a different game in October.
It has been shaky lately, but the bullpen will change between now and the postseason and even between now and the trade deadline. Moving Weathers or Will Warren or whoever to the bullpen at midseason may be too disruptive, plus I have a hard time seeing how they’re not among the team’s 5-6 best starters. If anything, Rodríguez is the guy who should get moved to the bullpen. I could see Warren and especially Weathers being MFers as relievers. I wouldn’t make that move during the summer though. Not yet.
Ari asks: With Clark Schmidt potentially returning in August, what are the chances: 1) The Yankees move him to the pen for the playoff run? 2) Brian Cashman fails to bring in a big time reliever at the deadline and tells the press that getting back Schmidt "is like making a trade?"
There’s no chance (2) happens. The Yankees make a bunch of trades at the deadline every year and the whole “getting this guy back is like making a trade” thing is something fans complain about, not something the Yankees actually say. I wish you luck finding a record of Cashman saying that in the last 15-20 years. He’s the master hedger. With injured players, he says they’ll be happy when a guy comes back but they have to get through the rehab first, etc. Not that they’re counting on the guy.
As for (1), I think the chances Schmidt comes back as a reliever are pretty good. Not because the bullpen stinks, but because of the calendar. He had the internal brace procedure last July and it’s his second UCL repair, which comes with a longer rehab. Schmidt’s looking at an August/September return even if his rehab goes perfectly. Why spend more time stretching him out to start? Schmidt’s pitched in relief before. He can do it. We’ll see where Schmidt is at in a few weeks, but I think it’s likely he comes back as a reliever, possibly as a 2-3 inning guy.
Dan asks: Eric Reyzelman has been putting up some nice numbers recently, but can't find any information about his fastball velocity, except that it dipped last year. Do you have any info as to whether he has recovered his stuff or not and if so, could he be a bullpen option?
The Yankees promoted Reyzelman to Scranton earlier this week after he went 17.1 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 4 BB, 32 K with Somerset. Per Somerset’s broadcast, which displays non-public Statcast info, Reyzelman hit 100.3 mph last week (video). That’s the hardest he’s thrown since his 2024 breakout. Last year with the RailRiders he topped out at 98.1 mph and was 92-95 mph most nights, so this is a big uptick. Reyzelman hasn't pitched for Scranton since the promotion. Once he does, we'll have see what the full arsenal looks like.
Reyzelman turns 25 next month and he’s already had Tommy John surgery and four back surgeries. Similar to Yovanny Cruz, who turns 27 in August, there’s not much sense in holding Reyzelman back if he’s performing well and showing lively stuff. It’s a question of tying up a 40-man roster spot as much as anything and the Yankees have enough flexibility there to not sweat it.
Give Reyzelman a few more appearances in Scranton, and if he looks good, call him up and give him a look, even if he’s only an up/down guy. When a reliever with an ugly injury history is throwing gas and getting outs in Triple-A, you might as well call him up instead of wasting bullets in the minors. I’m not sure Reyzelman is a solution to the bullpen issues, but he’s worth trying if he keeps throwing like this.
Sal asks: Sean Paul Linan, with the 70 change up, maybe little else; won't develop a great FB and perhaps isn’t great at spinning the ball…See if he takes to the Knuckle Ball? It’s a touch/feel pitch, doesn’t require velo or spin. If he can do it, he’ll have 2 pitches tough to hit even if you know they’re coming.
Liñan is the prospect the Yankees got in the Jorbit Vivas trade near the end of Spring Training. He’s got a 3.90 ERA (3.62 FIP) with 32.2 K% and 7.0 BB% in 27.2 innings with Hudson Valley thanks to that knockout changeup. It’s a butterfly that (High-A) hitters can't touch.
Liñan is a one-trick pony. His low-90s fastball and mid-80 cutter/slider thing aren’t especially good pitches, so he uses that changeup A LOT. It’s working in High-A. More advanced hitters might not be as forgiving, at which point it will be worth seeing whether Liñan’s velocity ticks up in relief.
Knuckleballs are typically a last resort. Guys learn them when they’re close to washing out and are trying to find a way to extend their careers. They’re also hard to learn. (If it were easy, lots of guys would throw one.) I think it’s too early to try a knuckleball with Liñan. See what his fastball looks like as a short reliever first, then try that. Knuckleballs are challenging and, frankly, not very good. Most knuckleballers suck.
Mark asks: There used to be a thing called “taking a strike”, where the batter didn’t swing until he had one called strike on him. I get that you don’t want to start out with an 0-1 count, but aren’t there times when that strategy should be employed? Such as down several runs and you need baserunners, or when facing a pitcher with control issues (if I were an opponent I would absolutely have my hitters take a strike against Fernando Cruz who gets almost his outs via pitches out of the strike zone). The Wells AB in the 10th against the Mets Sunday with runners on the corners seemed to be the perfect “lane” for him to take a strike to at least give Volpe a chance to steal and stay out of the double play. I was watching the game with my family and as Wells was coming to bat I snarkily commented, “best case scenario is a strikeout.” One pitch later and my kids thought I was a genius! Is taking a strike still considered a strategy, and if it isn’t shouldn’t it be in certain situations?
Austin Wells got two at-bats last Sunday, both after Anthony Volpe drew a walk, and he swung at the first pitch both times. He grounded back to the pitcher with the bases loaded to end the seventh, then hit into a 3-6-3 double play with runners on the corners to end the tenth. It was capital-B Brutal. By win probability, it was the worst game of the season by a Yankees hitter (by a lot), and Wells didn’t even start!
Wells went out of the zone in the tenth inning. That was rough. In the seventh though, he got a 91.1 mph sinker down the middle, and did nothing with it. That one falls firmly in the “the first pitch after a walk might be the best pitch you see, so be ready for it” axiom. Wells got a pitch to hit and hit it into the ground, and right back to Sean Manaea. Then he went out of the zone after a 94.3 mph fastball in the tenth. Groan.
Wells obviously should not have swung at that tenth inning pitch, though I’m not sure taking a pitch just so Volpe could steal second was the play there. Luis Torrens might be the best throwing catcher in the game (45% caught stealing rate with great Statcast metrics), so it’s not a very high percentage steal, and you’ve gotta get a run there. Runners on the corners with one out is a pretty good situation. Wells just botched it.
To answer the question, taking a strike is still very much a thing, and it’s one of those things that can happen without us realizing it. Sometimes a hitter will take a strike so the runner can steal, but he doesn’t go because he doesn’t have the pitcher’s delivery down. Sometimes the hitter intends to take a strike, but gets too juicy of a pitch to pass up. Taking a strike is definitely still a thing. We see it most nights even if we may not realize it at the time.
Darren asks: After all of the changes to baseball recently, both with respect to the actual rules (ABS and replay challenges; ghost runners; minimum number of batters a reliever has to face, etc.) and the even bigger change in how stats are used to evaluate players (WAR, ERA+, etc.), how, in 2026, does a starting pitcher who leaves a runner(s) on base get 100% of the blame (as far as his ERA) if the reliever allows the inherited runner(s) to score? Isn't it time to apportion blame in a fair manner that reflects the situation? For example, if a starting pitcher leaves with a runner on first base and 2 outs and the reliever allows the runner to score, the starter's ERA should be assigned 1/4 of a run, and the reliever's ERA 3/4 of the run. If there's a runner on second and 2 outs, they split the run 1/2 and 1/2. A runner on third and 2 outs, 3/4 of the run goes to the starter and 1/4 to the reliever. If there's 1 out, the percentages go down so that the starter takes more of the blame, e.g., a runner on 1st, they split it 50/50; a runner on second, the starter gets 3/4, the reliever gets 1/4; a runner on third, 100% of the blame goes to the starter. With no outs, the starter takes 100% of the blame for any runners on second and third, and 3/4 of the blame for the runner on 1st. This wouldn't really need to be its own new stat, just a change in how the current stat of ERA is calculated. But you could call it for ease, the IRS ERA - Inherited Runner Scoring Earned Run Average.
Inherited runners are a statistical blind spot. They’re all treated equally even though we know they’re not. Many moons ago someone at the FanGraphs Community Blog did exactly what Darren is describing here, and assigned a certain percentage of blame for the inherited runner to the starter and the rest to the reliever based on where the runner was, the outs, etc. Some starters saw their ERA improve by half-a-run via that method, and some relievers saw a two-run ERA increase.
I don’t know what the right percentages are but I agree relievers should receive some portion of the blame for inherited runners scoring, and would like that factored into ERA. I don’t know how this would change things historically (I bet there’s a Cy Young winner out there whose ERA would have been a half-a-run higher without his bullpen being nails behind him) but inherited runners are definitely something we aren’t accounting for in the best way. Assigning 100% of the blame to the starter is outdated.
Ryan Weathers, by the way, has gotten hosed the most by the bullpen. He’s left 11 inherited runners on base in his nine starts and six have scored, or 55%. With a league average rate (30%), Weathers would have a 3.04 ERA rather than a 3.58 ERA. The bullpen was a perfect 6-for-6 stranding Cam Schlittler’s inherited runners before Jake Bird allowed one to score Wednesday, which, all things considered, was a good outcome. Bird inherited the bases loaded with no outs.
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