Aaron Judge was in attendance for the Knicks’ historic comeback win Wednesday and hopefully those incredible vibes trickle down to the Yankees. Not that they need them. It’s just that the Knicks are on an all-time heater and it’s been a long time since a team captivated the city like this. Maybe not ever, or at least not in my lifetime. There are gonna be a bunch of little Jalens and Karl-Anthonys and OGs in New York City schools in 6-7 years. Job’s not finished though. One more win, Knicks. Let’s get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. It hasn’t even been two full weeks yet, but the Yankees have put on a masterclass at winning without Aaron Judge. He’s irreplaceable. When a player like Judge is out, it’s on everyone else to raise their game and improve the collective. The Yankees have won four straight and are 5-3 since Judge last played, and it’s been a different hero (or heroes, plural) almost every game.
“Nothing changes for everybody in the building,” Trent Grisham, who is hitting .291/.377/.480 (141 wRC+) since May 1st, told Henry Palattella about life without Judge. “We know what a great player he is and how much he means, but everyone talks about that on the outside. It’s business as usual on the inside. It’ll be a different guy every night.”
I wrote this when Judge got hurt: The 2026 Yankees are not the 2023 Yankees. The 2023 Yankees were leaning on Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, and Franchy Cordero long before Judge got hurt. The 2026 Yankees have a second Alpha in Ben Rice and a deeper supporting cast that includes Grisham, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Paul Goldschmidt. Plus there’s Cody Bellinger, who does something to help the Yankees win every single night. A hit, a defensive play, whatever.
The 2026 Yankees aren’t perfect but they’re very good, with or without Judge. Great sweep over the pesky Guardians this week. If you’re wont to keep track of such things, the Yankees have won five of their last seven games against teams that are .500 or better. I know some folks were freaking out about their record in such contests. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days in Cleveland.
Jones connects
We’ve been waiting for Spencer Jones to run into a pitch and show the power that keeps him on prospect lists despite all the strikeouts, and we finally saw it Tuesday. Slade Cecconi made about as bad of a pitch as you can possibly make in a 1-0 count. Or in any count, really. He left an 87.2 cutter right in the middle of the plate. I mean right down the middle:
Jones deposited it 443 feet away in dead center field. It cleared the bushes behind the center field wall and hit the Progressive ad. Here’s the video. It's the second longest first career home run by a Yankee since Statcast launched in 2015. Only Judge’s 446-foot homer in his first MLB at-bat tops it. (Third on that list? Hard hittin’ Chris Gittens at 439 feet. Here’s that video since I have it in front of me.)
“That was sick. Being on base, I thought it was Aaron Judge who hit that,” Chisholm said about Jones’ homer (video). “It just blasted off the bat, not gonna lie. He reminds me of the big guys. That’s why he’s one of them.”
The second big league stint has gone much better for Jones, who is 6-for-12 with a double and the homer since coming up to replace Judge. He’s still swinging and missing a ton, and yeah, five of the six hits were ground balls that got through the infield, but I’ll take it. Ground ball hits count too, and when you hit the ball as hard as Jones, you’ll get more grounders through the infield than most others.
Here are Jones’ swinging strike rate and wRC+ throughout his big league time. This is a fun and definitely not small sample size graph (how dare you suggest such a thing):
Whiffs go down, production goes up. It doesn’t always work that way! Some guys overcorrect and shorten up so much to get the bat on the ball that their contact quality suffers and their production slips*. Jones has 39 plate appearances. I don’t want to make too much of it. All that homer did was remind everyone that when this guy gets the bat on the ball, great things can happen (41.0 K% and .474 BABIP lol).
* This is largely why two-strike approaches have been abandoned. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze when you’re sacrificing that much contact quality to up your contact quantity. Bellinger’s two-strike approach gets a lot of attention, but he has a 91 OPS+ in two-strike counts this year. Is it really worth it?
The Yankees are keeping Jones away from lefties (he went 3-for-3 last Friday, then was pinch-hit for against a lefty, and was out of the starting lineup against a lefty the next game) and that’s for the best given his near 50 K% against Triple-A lefties the last two years. Put him in positions to succeed. Right now, that’s against righties. They can work him in against lefties once he really settles in.
Aaron Boone gave a “we’ll see” the other day when asked if Jasson Domínguez will step back onto the active roster when he’s ready to return. I think there’s room for both Domínguez and Jones, though it would mean sending down Anthony Volpe (or Max Schuemann), and I’m not sure the Yankees will do that. For now, I’m glad we got to see Jones mash that first tater. The monkey is off his back and hopefully he takes off now, and capitalizes on this opportunity with Judge out.
“The guys believe in me,” Jones told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d). “Having that support is something that I take a lot of pride in, and I’m ready to show what I’ve got.”
Cruz control
On a night the bullpen was very short, Fernando Cruz turned in one of the best relief appearances of the season Tuesday. He entered with the tying run at second with one out in the eighth, went strikeout (Travis Bazzana)/line out (José Ramírez) to escape the jam, then he struck out three in the ninth inning to finish the five-out save (video). Here are the Yankees’ top relief appearances this season by win probability added:
1. Fernando Cruz: +0.439 (June 9th at Guardians)2. David Bednar: +0.275 (June 8th at Guardians)3. Brent Headrick: +0.271 (April 17th vs. Royals)4. Fernando Cruz: +0.267 (May 22nd vs. Rays)5. Brent Headrick: +0.252 (May 3rd vs. Orioles)
Two best of the season on back-to-back days. Who knew? Bednar got five outs Monday after getting three outs Sunday, though he entered with the bases empty. Cruz had to face the top of the order (that doesn’t factor into the WPA calculation, but still) with the tying run at second and one out. He gave up two runs to the Astros on April 24th. Since then: 21 IP, 12 H, 2 R, 8 BB, 24 K. He’s been dominant.
“All I can say, and I’m going to say it a thousand times, it’s my gift from God,” Cruz told Randy Miller about his splitter after Tuesday’s save. “It’s just something that I don’t really understand. It’s a supernatural pitch that I have. Watching guys swinging over it or below it, it’s an amazing thing. I’m here because of His gift. He gave the gift to me, and I’m really grateful for it.”
The Statcast folks put out new metrics this week that measure swing timing (late, early, etc.) and miss distance, which is the distance between the bat and the ball on a swing and miss. It’s measured when that distance between the two is smallest, so, basically, it tells us how close the hitter came to making contact when on a whiff. Set the minimum to 100 swings, and here are the largest average miss distances:
1. Mason Miller: 10.7 inches (slider)2. Fernando Cruz: 8.0 inches (splitter)3. José Soriano: 7.7 inches (curveball)4. Connor Phillips: 7.6 inches (sweeper)5. Kyle Bradish: 6.7 inches (curveball)
The league average miss distance for splitters is 4.1 inches and the second largest behind Cruz is Kevin Gausman at 5.3 inches. Cruz’s splitter is double the league average and lapping the field compared to other splitters. Other than Miller’s slider, there isn’t a pitch in baseball that hitters miss by this much.
Lump all pitches together, and Cruz’s 7.0-inch average miss distance is tied with Miller for the best in baseball. His splitter’s 55.4% whiff rate is second best in baseball behind the 59.4% on Miller’s slider. This tells us Cruz doesn’t just get a lot of swings and misses on this splitter, but the hitters aren’t even close with their swings. They’re missing by seven inches on average no matter what he throws.
Miss distance is just another thing that tells us yeah, Cruz is awesome. His control will come and go, but that’s true of most relievers. What is not true of most relievers is that they have one of the best pitches in baseball, which Cruz does in his splitter. It’s a supreme bat-misser that we now know doesn’t just miss a lot of bats, it misses bats by a lot. What a performance that was Tuesday.
Domínguez in right, Lagrange in relief
Two notable Triple-A happenings this week. First, Jasson Domínguez played right field during his two rehab games with Scranton. Including Spring Training, he played right field only once before (Aug. 11th, 2024, with Scranton). Domínguez played seven innings in the field both Tuesday and Wednesday as he builds up during rehab, and caught the three balls hit his way. He also went 4-for-7 with a homer (video).
Over the weekend Boone told Gary Phillips the Yankees have talked about playing Domínguez in right field, but “it would be kinda tough just because we’ve poured so much into Jasson committing to left field and stuff.” I wrote about the possibility of Domínguez playing right field back before the start of Spring Training. Here’s what I wrote then:
“(We could) sprinkle in a little (center field),” Aaron Boone told Phillips earlier this week. “But I want him to continue to get those reps in left field. And I probably don’t want to spread him out too much, especially with him trying to master one of the positions.”
Domínguez is a poor defender, and if you’re a poor outfield defender, you should play right field in Yankee Stadium. Judge isn’t going anywhere, but there were a lot of times last season when Domínguez was in left and Cody Bellinger was in right. 44 times they were aligned that way in the starting lineup, in fact. Isn’t that backwards? Shouldn’t it be Bellinger in left and Domínguez in right? 44 is not an insignificant number of games.
On one hand, I get wanting Domínguez to focus on left field since that is likely his long-term home. On the other hand, maybe right field should be his long-term home? Giancarlo Stanton has only two years left on his contract, and I assume Judge will take over as the most of the time DH come 2028. He DHs a bunch now as it is (when Stanton is hurt). Spring Training is the time to get Domínguez looks in right.
The Yankees never had Dominguez “sprinkle in a little” center field time in Spring Training, let alone right field time. Trying it in Triple-A doesn’t mean they'll to put him there in big league games either. It just means they’re trying it in a zero stakes environment. Domínguez playing right field for the second and third time ever is notable though, for sure. It makes sense too. Maybe it’ll work. I hope it does. It would create more flexibility.
Also on Tuesday, Carlos Lagrange made his second relief appearance since moving to the bullpen ahead of a (potential) call up. Unlike his first relief appearance, which was a four-inning bulk outing behind an opener, Tuesday was a more traditional relief appearance. Lagrange came into the middle of an inning with a man on base (runner on first with one out) and struggled with it a bit. He entered the game and the rest of the inning went:
Single to put runners on first and second with one out.
Fly out to center.
Double to left field to score both runners.
Six-pitch walk to put runners on first and second with two outs.
Strikeout to end the inning.
You do these things and prepare him for a bullpen role in Triple-A for this reason. So his first time entering a game with a runner(s) on base does not come in a game that counts. Do it again, and again after that if needed, and allow him to grow comfortable with a fireman role. Lagrange stayed in and threw another two innings to finish out Tuesday's game. His line: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K on 46 pitches (video).
Stuff-wise, Lagrange went fastball/slider/changeup heavy Tuesday and put his new sinker on the shelf. He had his best average velocity of the season, sitting 100.8 mph and topping out at 102.2 mph. Seven of his nine fastest pitches came in the seventh inning, when he entered with the runner on base and was asked to escape the jam. Lagrange had that one messy inning, but it’s all part of the learning process.
“Once he regrouped, he dominated the rest of the game,” Scranton pitching coach Spencer Medick told Ryan Dunleavy (subs. req'd). “Mentality, definitely has it. It’s just developing a routine and getting accustomed to the density and all that. Even as a starter, it’s just one inning at a time. From a mental standpoint, he’s in a great spot and it’s not a huge adjustment.”
The Yankees have a deload program mapped out for Lagrange that is more complicated than “throw one inning every other day.” As I understand it, he’s going to work gradually shorter outings with less rest in between appearances, and build “down” over time*. It would make sense to keep him stretched out to 40 pitches or so though, no? Maybe he can be a multi-inning setup guy like Mike King back in the day.
* Boone told Phillips that Lagrange’s next appearance is tentatively scheduled for Sunday, which would be normal rest. They’ll begin pitching him more often after that.
I have no idea how close the Yankees are to calling up Lagrange nor do I know how willing they are to put Domínguez in right field in the Bronx. Lagrange was given his first “real” relief test Tuesday (i.e. entering with a runner on base) and the Yankees had Domínguez at least try right field in Scranton. Two notable occurrences that could affect the MLB team before long.
Miscellany
The defense didn’t help him, but Gerrit Cole really had to grind Tuesday: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K on 83 pitches. Only four swings and misses too, though, to be fair, Cleveland has baseball’s third lowest swinging strike rate. On the bright side, Cole threw his first 100 mph pitch in over three years. I mean a legit 100, not 99.something rounded up. He hit 100.0 mph Tuesday and it was his fastest pitch since a 100.1 mph fastball on Sept. 28th, 2022. The stuff has been plenty good, but the execution these last two times out was so-so. So it goes after elbow reconstruction … It’s only eight games, but the starters have a 4.75 ERA (4.66 FIP and 4.03 xERA) in June, and it’s not like those eight games were against powerhouse offenses (Guardians and Red Sox). The starters failed to complete five innings three times in those eight games after failing to complete five innings three times in the previous 18 games, and one of those three was Max Fried exiting early with an injury. The rotation is in the middle of its roughest patch of the season. Turn it around soon, please … Paul Goldschmidt went 5-for-12 in Cleveland and is hitting .400/.538/.667 (238 wRC+) with RISP this season. He’s got a 2019 DJ LeMahieu thing going on where the single to right field feels automatic in a big spot. Here’s a stat:
Goldschmidt: .287/.366/.524 (147 OPS+)
Every other age 36+ hitter: .223/.292/.352 (~82 OPS+)
Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman are the only age 36+ hitters doing more than keeping their head above water. It is a young hitter’s game. This is why I’ll be okay with it if/when Goldschmidt loses some playing time when Giancarlo Stanton returns. Don’t push it, keep him fresh … Ryan McMahon drew a walk Tuesday and it was his first walk in over a calendar month. He went 72 plate appearances between walks from May 7th to June 9th. The guy who ran a 10.9 BB% from 2022-25 has a 7.2 BB% this year. Not sure what that’s about. Regardless, McMahon is hitting .255/.278/.457 (102 wRC+) since May 1st. I can live with a power heavy league average bat. Keep it up, Ryan … And finally, Ali Sánchez drew a walk in the sixth inning Wednesday and it was the first (and still only!) time a Yankees catcher reached base in June. They’re 0-for-25 with 12 strikeouts and that one walk this month. That’s a .038 OBP. What happens first, a catcher has a multi-hit game or Judge returns?
Injury updates and roster notes
Max Fried (elbow) will have more imaging this week to determine if he can get up on a mound. He hadn’t gone for his tests yet as of Wednesday, and we don’t get injury updates on off-days. We should get a Fried update later today … Austin Wells (neck) has resumed baseball activities. Tests showed nothing serious, but there’s no word on how long he’ll be out … Angel Chivilli (shoulder) made a rehab appearance Wednesday: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K on 22 pitches with Scranton. The Yankees then activated him off the injured list Thursday and optioned him to Triple-A.
Up next
Three games in Toronto. Including the postseason, the Yankees went 1-8 and were outscored 75-41 at Rogers Centre last year. They played some of the most amateurish defense you’ll ever see in their seven regular season games there. That was the AL East race. Catch a few more balls in Toronto and the Yankees are division champs with a Wild Card Series bye. Alas. Here’s the weekend ahead:
Friday at Blue Jays: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. TBA (7:30pm ET on YES)
Saturday at Blue Jays: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. TBA (3pm ET on YES)
Sunday at Blue Jays: RHP Will Warren vs. TBA (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day
(The later start time tonight has to due with a World Cup event nearby.)
As I write this Thursday afternoon, the Blue Jays still haven’t announced their starters for whatever reason. Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, and Patrick Corbin line up to pitch the three games in that order. Toronto had an off-day Thursday and can use that to rearrange things, but I’m not sure why they would. I guess they could bump Corbin and start Dylan Cease on normal rest Sunday. We’ll see.
The short starts Monday and Tuesday left the bullpen so shorthanded Wednesday that Weathers was available in relief. “I think I’m glad we didn’t use him,” Boone told Palattella with a smile after the game. If the Yankees needed Weathers, they would have used him, then they would have used Thursday’s off-day to rejigger the rotation. The bullpen should be in okay shape going into Toronto.
Although they’re 33-36 with a -18 run differential and are 10 games behind the Yankees in the loss column, I still consider the Blue Jays the biggest threat in the AL East. For mid-June, it's an important series (much moreso for the Blue Jays). It’s a chance to create some more separation in the standings, if not bury them. Beat them now and make life easy later.
2. 2026 draft prospect: South Carolina HS SS Bo Lowrance. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Lowrance, 18, is a big lad (6-foot-5 and 200 lbs.) and one of the top risers in the draft class. The second and third tier college hitters have almost all had meh springs, so teams picking in the back half of the first round are honing in on high schoolers. Lowrance has helped himself with a good spring and the draft board is working in his favor. Here’s where he sits in the most recent draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 43
ESPN: No. 30
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 20
MLB Pipeline: No. 38
In their most recent mock draft, Baseball America (subs. req’d) said the Yankees have been “mentioned” as a landing spot for Lowrance, which strikes me as more than the usual rumormongering. This late in the draft cycle, I take that to mean the Yankees have legitimate interest. Here’s video and here’s part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Lowrance has a smooth left-handed stroke and a track record of delivering against quality competition on the showcase circuit. He doesn't try to do too much at the plate, making consistent contact to all fields despite naturally long levers with his 6-foot-5 frame. While he has a projectable build, he doesn't have explosive bat speed and doesn't lift and pull many pitches at this point, so he'll need to add strength and make some adjustments to get to 20-homer power.
Though Lowrance moves well for his size, his average speed and quickness will dictate a move to third base at the next level. His solid arm strength will work at the hot corner, though there's some question about his ability to stick there in the long term. If he outgrows third base and slows a bit, he could wind up at first base.
Lowrance is a bat-first prospect and the fact there is already talk about a 6-foot-5 player moving off shortstop and possibly even third base puts a lot of pressure on the bat. I forget where, but I saw that Lowrance has gotten Freddie Freeman comps, and hey, if he hits like Freeman, the bat is plenty good for first base. I just hate comparing players to Hall of Famers. It’s unfair to the player and just unrealistic.
Enough teams in the 20-30 range are said to love Lowrance (including the Red Sox at No. 20) that I don’t think he’ll be on the board for the Yankees and the No. 35 pick. He’ll hear his name called before that. The Yankees reportedly have some level of interest though, which makes him worth covering.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Possible trade candidate/target Tarik Skubal will make his return and start tomorrow, 38 days after having a loose body taken out of his elbow. Those surgeries usually come with a 2-3 month recovery, if not longer, but the new less invasive NanoScope procedure speeds things up significantly. This means a) we’ll get a nice long look at post-surgery Skubal before any trade talks get serious, and b) Skubal lines up to face the Yankees in both series later this month. Figures … Aroldis Chapman told Enrique Rojas that, if the Yankees trade for him, he wants Brian Cashman to apologize first. He says the team gave him permission to go home after he skipped a workout and was subsequently left off the 2022 ALDS roster, but the Yankees said at the time that wasn’t the case. On the field, Chapman would be a terrific fit. He’s been dominant (0.46 ERA and 1.99 FIP) and the Yankees need a reliever who can throw a fastball by hitters. I don’t think we have to worry about a reunion though. Neither side seems enthused about the idea.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Several asked: What about Hunter Goodman?
Goodman, 26, is Actually Good, not just Rockies Good. He took a .249/.326/.528 (120 wRC+) line into Thursday after putting up similar numbers last year (118 wRC+), and he’s not a Coors Field product. Since becoming a full-time player last season, Goodman has a .282/.343/.509 (108 wRC+) line at home and .256/.305/.536 (129 wRC+) line on the road. Catchers who can slug .500 aren't exactly common.
There’s nothing particularly pretty about Goodman’s offensive game. He’s a grip it and rip it slugger who tries to pull everything to left field, and will strike out/swing and miss a ton. The power is legit though. Goodman can punish the baseball:
The defense is average-ish across the board and perhaps the Yankees can help with that, if not in-season this year then down the road. Goodman is under team control through 2029. He would be a long-term buy. The Rockies have shown signs of competence under new POBO Paul DePodesta, but they’re still years away from contention. Far enough away that Goodman may not be part of the next good Rockies team even with all those years of control.
Guys with contact skills this bad have major collapse risk, especially when it doesn’t come with an elite walk rate to prop things up. Still, good catchers are hard to acquire, and the Yankees need a righty bat to balance the lineup out a bit. At some point it makes sense to roll the dice and assume that collapse risk. A catcher who can slug like this without being a drain defensively is worth it.
What would it cost to get 3.5 years (or four postseasons) of a good but flawed hitter who plays a premium position? That’s a tough one. Not many good comps. The Rays traded 3.5 years of Isaac Paredes to the Cubs at the 2024 deadline. This was the trade package:
UTIL Christopher Morel (4.5 years of a talented project player)
RHP Hunter Bigge (MLB-ready reliever)
RHP Ty Johnson (previous year’s 15th rounder, non-top 30 prospect)
Would the Rockies go for that kinda package? Would they trade their best player for MLB ready guys, or look long-term and trade for prospects? I think it’s the latter, but who knows. Does two top 10 prospects (Ben Hess and Spencer Jones?) plus one or two secondary pieces work? My hunch is the Rockies say no and hold out for a better headliner(s). I could live with that kinda package though.
Even as a rental coming off a broken hamate, I would prefer Ryan Jeffers to Goodman because guys who swing and miss this much just aren’t my cup of tea, plus I’m not ready to give up on Austin Wells. Trade for a catcher with long-term control like Goodman (or Keibert Ruiz) and that’s kinda what you’re doing. I can see the vision with Goodman and he’s a worthwhile trade target despite his flaws.
Sam asks: Two names that are little more expensive on trade market, Jeremy Peña and Dillon Dingler, any chance at either?
I don’t think there’s any chance Dingler is available. Trading rental Tarik Skubal is one thing. He’s looking at the largest pitching contract ever and the Tigers aren’t paying that. Dingler has emerged as one of the game’s best catchers though, and he won’t be a free agent until after 2030. No chance they trade him. As disappointing as they’ve been this year, the Tigers have young talent, and can build around Dingler.
(I’ve seen Adley Rutschman speculated as a trade target and what am I missing there? The Orioles have climbed back into the Wild Card race and Samuel Basallo is a poor defender who probably isn’t ready to be a full-time catcher. The Rutschman thing feels like wishcasting.)
Peña, I can see happening. I’m not saying it’s likely, but I can see it. The Astros stink and Peña is a year away from free agency. He rejected an extension a few years ago and he’s a Scott Boras client, and the Astros don’t pay top dollar to keep their homegrown players unless they're 5-foot-6. They were proactive last year when they traded Kyle Tucker a year before free agency. Moving Peña at the deadline seems possible, sure.
Now 28, Peña is hitting .281/.343/.413 (116 wRC+) with 14.8 K% and 7.4 BB% around a World Baseball Classic finger injury and a hamstring strain. He’s a good defender too. He’s very graceful in the field. He makes it all look easy. The Yankees don't have a starting caliber shortstop. They have two utility guys playing shortstop. Peña would be an upgrade through next year. The Yankees should pursue him, absolutely.
We have a pretty good trade reference for Peña: Brendan Donovan. Donovan was traded with two full years of control and Peña is only 1.5 years, so it’s not apples to apples, but it’s two postseasons of both guys, and that’s what really matters. Annoyingly, the Donovan trade was a three-teamer (stupid Rays), so let’s look at the trade package two ways:
Cardinals receivedSHP Jurrangelo Cijntje (global top 75-ish prospect)OF Tai Peete (team top 10 prospect)OF Colton Ledbetter (non-top 30 team prospect)Competitive Balance Round B pick (No. 68 overall)Competitive Balance Round B pick (No. 72 overall)
Mariners gave upSHP Jurrangelo Cijntje (global top 75-ish prospect)OF Tai Peete (team top 10 prospect)IF Ben Williamson (six years of a glove-first utility guy)Competitive Balance Round B pick (No. 68 overall)
The Astros desperately need pitching and they would probably like to get a shortstop to replace Peña in the trade since they don’t have an obvious fill-in. Unless they really like José Caballero or Anthony Volpe, or the Yankees are willing to put George Lombard Jr. on the table, I don’t see the shortstop part lining up. The Yankees can give the Astros pitching though, maybe even a Major Leaguer who can provide immediate help (Ryan Weathers?).
As bad as the Astros have been (31-39 and -38 run differential), they went into their off-day Thursday only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The AL being this bad is gonna impact the deadline. A lot of teams will think they’re in it and not sell. My guess is that as long as they’re close, the Astros will push to get to the postseason. If they fall further back, then yeah, put Peña on the shopping list.
Anonymous asks: Shouldn't Stanton play in the outfield when he comes back? 1. It's the only way to get Stanton, Goldy and Rice into the lineup at the same time. 2. He hits better when he is in the outfield. 3. He is less likely to get injured when staying loose in the outfield.
When Aaron Judge got hurt, Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman both said putting Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield is something the team will discuss, though they said in a way that suggested it's not a serious consideration it right now. He’s coming off a calf injury that has sidelined him for close to two months, and they don’t want him to re-injure the calf (or hurt something else) running around in the outfield. As he gets further away from the injury, the outfield could come into play. Right now, I don’t think it’ll happen.
I agree though, Stanton in the outfield would be the best use of the current roster while Judge is out. Even with a 72 wRC+ against righties, Paul Goldschmidt is one of your top hitters at this point, and Ben Rice behind the plate appears to be a non-option (as it should be). Stanton in the outfield is the only way to get all three into the lineup together. Until that happens, you’re looking at this:
vs. RHPRice at 1BStanton at DHGoldschmidt on bench
vs. LHPStanton at DHGoldschmidt at 1BRice on bench
That’s what the Yankees did before Stanton got hurt and there were times Goldschmidt was on the bench even against lefties because Rice was hitting so well. The Yankees tend to ease Stanton back from his injuries. He’ll play two days, sit the third day, etc. That’s another way to get Goldschmidt into the lineup. But yeah, Big G in the outfield solves a lot of problems and (probably) puts the best possible lineup on the field.
As good as he’s been, I’m okay pulling back on Goldschmidt’s playing time, especially against righties. We watched him wear down and go in the tank last season. I don’t want that to happen again. At this point in his career, less can be more. Stanton is inching closer to a return but it does not seem imminent. The Yankees have some time before they have to figure this all out for real.
Mark asks: I find it odd that the Yankees put Caballero in right field and Rosario at third base instead of the other way around. It cost them in the Boston loss when Rosario’s miss-play contributed to the big Red Sox inning. Caballero is a good defensive infielder and Rosario is…not. Wouldn’t Rosario likely do less damage in right field, and Caballero have more of a positive impact at third base?
The Yankees have used the Amed Rosario at third/José Caballero in right alignment three times, all against lefty starters (duh), and twice behind Cam Schlittler and once behind Carlos Rodón. Schlittler (career 39.6 GB%) and Rodón (39.0 GB% since 2024) are fly ball pitchers, and I guess part of the thinking is fewer balls will be hit Rosario’s way? It’s played out that way on the field. In those three games there were six ground balls to third base and eight fly balls/line drives to right field, and Ryan McMahon had already been subbed in for defense for two of those six ground balls. (Three of the six ground balls were Tim Hill joints.)
Rosario’s error in the Red Sox game was costly, but looking at it from a “where the ball is most likely to be hit during these games,” putting the better defender in right field was the move. Caballero is much speedier than Rosario and has more range in the outfield, at least once he gets going in the right direction. We’ve definitely seen his inexperience though. Caballero almost ran into Trent Grisham last weekend and did run into him Wednesday (videos), and Grisham sure didn’t seem happy about it. His body language gave off “we talking about making sure we communicate in the outfield and you’re still not doing it” vibes.
But also, look at those plays. What are the chances Rosario is able to get there like Caballero? Not very good, I don’t think. Boot a grounder or let it scoot by at third base, and it’s usually just one base. Misplay something in the outfield though, and it's often extra bases. Rosario is in there for his bat. He’s not a good defender anywhere. It seems like he can do the least damage at third base. So, the simple answer to this question is the Yankees consider Rosario at third/Caballero in right the better defensive alignment than the other way around.
Chris asks: You mentioned that we'll have to free up a spot for Schmidt when he returns, but won't we have to free up a spot for Lagrange before then, assuming we do call him up as a reliever? And why do you think Castro is more of a first DFA candidate than Beck? Both are 27. Seems like Castro doing better so far and as a reliever, maybe more potentially useful in an emergency call-up. And is Yerry De los Santos on the DFA bubble as well? And since Gil apparently hasn't pitched yet since being demoted, would it be possible to put him on the 60 day IL for rest of the season and try to fix him in non-game situations or in some kind of rehab later this year? Or would he have to be promoted to MLB in order to be placed on 60-day?
I’ll be honest, I completely forgot about a possible Carlos Lagrange call up when I wrote that the other day. That figures to be the next time the Yankees need a 40-man roster spot, not Clarke Schmidt’s return down the line. (Schmidt won’t be back until after the trade deadline anyway and the 40-man always changes at the deadline. Lagrange figures to come up before deadline day. Possibly well before.)
Listing Kervin Castro as the first DFA candidate was just a guess on my part. I figure it’s him or Yerry De Los Santos since they’re similar middle reliever types in their final minor league option year. De Los Santos has been better in Triple-A this year, though there’s not a ton of daylight between them in terms of their big league utility. Here are their Triple-A numbers going into Thursday:
Castro: 2.49 ERA (3.75 FIP) with 21.7 K%, 6.0 BB%, 43.9 GB%
De Los Santos: 3.72 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 27.3 K%, 6.6 BB%, 48.7 GB%
Beck can start or be a bulk reliever type behind an opener, and he will have options remaining for 2027 and 2028. With up/down depth arms, options matter more than age (unless we’re talking 24 vs. 35 or something like that). Beck, Castro, and De Los Santos were all born within 14 months of each other. I think Beck is safer from a DFA than the other two because he has options remaining for after this season, but who really knows?
As for Luis Gil, there hasn't been an update on him since he landed on Scranton’s IL with a shoulder issue on May 8th. The Yankees can call him up and put him on the MLB 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot, teams do that all the time, but it would reset the clock to the 60 days (I think). Triple-A IL time doesn’t count. (Gil would also collect service time on the MLB IL, but that’s not worth worrying about at this point.)
Unless Gil is throwing and near a rehab assignment, the 60-day clock isn’t a big deal. If he is throwing though and you expect him back before 60 days, it doesn’t make sense to do the 60-day IL thing. Gil was horrible, but if he’s healthy and able to pitch, you want him available. Depending on his rehab status, calling him up and putting him on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot is doable, sure.
Paul asks: Compared to last year, have home plate umpires been more accurate with ball/strike calls now that there's greater accountability? And relatedly, after a team uses up their two challenges, do home plate umpires then "relax" and become less accurate with calls regarding that team?
Pitch-tracking launched in 2008 and umpires got a little better each year up until about 2019, then their correct call rate leveled off. Maybe they reached the limit of human umpires? The baseball moves too fast for your eyes to track it. What you see is where your brain expects the ball to go. I know we all hate them, but MLB umpires are very good at their jobs.
Here are the correct call rates (pitches inside the zone called strikes and pitches outside the zone called balls) since 2021. The 2026 numbers include the original call only. If the umpire called it a ball and ABS turned it into a strike, it’s included here as a ball because we’re measuring the umps (there have so few ABS challenges, relatively speaking, that it doesn’t change the numbers much anyway).
(Correct ball rate is always higher than correct strike rate because so many balls are obvious. They’re in the dirt, way out of the zone, etc. I’m not sure what’s up with the spike in 2025 numbers either. I checked them twice. Maybe just a weird year.)
Correct call rate is up this season and not by a little either. Two or three percentage points league-wide is significant. We’re talking tens of thousands of pitches here. Can we attribute this to ABS? Are umpires locked in more because they don’t want to be embarrassed when a call is overturned? Maybe they are. Then again, couldn’t they relax a bit knowing ABS is there to pick them up? Hmmm.
The second question is way above my pay grade. I don’t know how to separate out ball/strike calls after a team has burned their ABS challenges. Anecdotally, I don’t think that has been the case. I haven’t noticed any strike zones that change significantly within a game. Remember, umps are graded after every game. It’s in their best interest to get every call right regardless of ABS, the game situation, etc.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)