I can’t claim to be a long-suffering Knicks fan. I tried to get into basketball basically every season in the 1990s and 2000s, but it never stuck. For whatever reason, it stuck about 10 years ago. Something about 17-win teams appealed to me, I guess. I haven’t suffered nearly as long as so many others, so I feel a little guilty about enjoying the Knicks’ title win as much as I have. I have enjoyed it though, greatly.
“It’s just a great example of a team that’s certainly faced more than their share of adversity and questions and all that,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips. “I think their mental toughness and championship mettle just ended up winning the day. It’s fun to see that because each one of those guys to varying degrees went through rough moments. Getting beat on at different points for different reasons, and they all persevered through it. That’s not an easy thing to do, and that’s why they’re champions.”
The Knicks went 16-3 with two one-point losses and one four-point loss in the playoffs. Their +283 point differential is easily the best in a single postseason, beating out the 2017 Warriors (+230). Double-digit deficits were no obstacle and almost became expected. The Knicks were about 30 minutes late to every game, but, once they showed up, they were unbeatable. The Team of Destiny vibes were real.
As much as we all love Aaron Judge, Jalen Brunson is the undisputed King of New York Sports, and I’m sure Judge would agree. Brunson is the most beloved New York athlete since Derek Jeter, and maybe even further back than that given the 53-year title drought. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the greatest Knick of all-time. I’m not basketball smart enough to say, but I can buy it.
The Knicks unite the city in a way the Yankees and every other local team don’t. The Yankees were in the World Series two years ago. The vibes in 2024 were great, but did they compare to these last few weeks with the Knicks? No. It wasn’t close either. I don’t mean to put down the Yankees. It will rule when they win a World Series next. It’s just that calling this Knicks team special greatly undersells them.
Like the Yankees, the Knicks ran it back with the same roster this year (other than a few new bench guys who were in and out of the rotation throughout the season) after losing in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. They did somewhat surprisingly change head coaches though, because they felt they needed a new voice to get over the hump. Obviously, they were correct. (Maybe take the hint, Yankees?)
Knicks in 5. A Gentleman’s Sweep. The parade is Thursday. I went to enough World Series parades when I was younger to know squeezing through the sea of humanity to get a glimpse of everyone cruising by is not for me at this point in my life, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t thinking about going just to say I was there. What a fun NBA season. I’ll never forget it. Let’s get into today’s post now.
1. Weekend thoughts. In one weekend the Yankees doubled their 2025 win total at Rogers Centre. They went 1-8 in that building last year, postseason included, and it was an ugly 1-8. Now they’re 2-1 there this season. Also, fun fact: All three Rogers Centre wins since last season were tie games going into the ninth inning, then someone hit a go-ahead home run in the top of the ninth. Here’s the recap:
Last July 22nd: Ben Rice vs. Jeff Hoffman (video)
Saturday: Paul Goldschmidt vs. Louie Varland (video)
Sunday: Rice vs. Braydon Fisher (video)
Saturday and Sunday were the first time the Yankees hit go-ahead homers in the ninth inning or later in back-to-back road games since Aug. 15-16, 2003, in Baltimore. Aaron Boone got Jorge Julio on Aug. 15th, then Jason Giambi got Hector Carrasco on Aug. 16th. The late-inning dramatics are fun, but maybe mix in an easy win one of these days? The Yankees took the lead in the eighth inning or later in five of their last six wins!
“I feel like I’ve come in here a lot of nights and said, ‘That was a gritty one right there,’” Boone told Bryan Hoch. “These guys are playing for a lot. To be an outstanding club, you’ve got to develop that hunger throughout the year, and I feel like these guys are in the midst of that.”
I missed the first seven-ish innings of Sunday’s game with a family thing and, after looking at the box score, I decided not to go back and watch the highlights. Will Warren held the Blue Jays to two runs on eight hits and three walks in four innings (!), and I'll leave how he did it to the imagination. Seriously, two runs on 11 baserunners in four innings? I’d be so annoyed if the Yankees offense did that.
“The Blue Jays are going to Blue Jay. They get their singles and make it tough on us, but I’m happy to get out of there with only two runs and give us a chance to win,” Warren told Hoch. “… Chip on our shoulder. We don’t like those guys over there and they don’t like us. Finding any way to win is always a good one, especially on the road.”
Sunday was the fourth time in the last six games the starter failed to complete five innings. Only four times in the previous 23 games did the starter fail to complete five innings, and one of those four was Max Fried exiting early with an injury. The Yankees survived this recent run of short starts thanks to the off-days, but they start a 16 games in 16 days stretch tonight. The starters have to start giving more length.
Sign me up for a 5-1 road trip every single time. The Yankees have won six of their last seven games and they’re 7-4 since Aaron Judge’s last game. Their +107 run differential is tops in the AL by a mile and even that undersells how good they’ve been. Here are the numbers going into Monday’s off-day:
Runs Scored per Game1. Nationals: 5.442. Dodgers: 5.363. Brewers: 5.364. Yankees: 5.115. Braves: 5.06
Runs Allowed per Game1. Dodgers: 3.402. Braves: 3.553. Yankees: 3.594. Brewers: 3.745. Rangers: 3.93
The Yankees are the best team in the AL and it’s not close. Address a few weaknesses at the trade deadline, then go into the postseason and do what the Knicks just did. The Knicks blew through a meh Eastern Conference while those great Western Conference teams beat up on each other. That’s the path the Yankees can take in October, just AL/NL instead of East/West. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Grisham hurt, Domínguez returns
I don’t think Trent Grisham will go to the Blue Jays when he becomes a free agent this winter. For the second time in two years, Grisham injured a hamstring at Rogers Centre. Last year he played through it and was noticeably slowed down on the bases and in the field for about two months. This year’s injury sent him to the 10-day IL. Last year it was his left hamstring. This year it’s his right hamstring.
“I wanna be precautionary with it and see how it heals up,” Grisham, who suffered the injury running the bases Friday (video), told Gary Phillips on Saturday. “… It’s just the cost of doing business sometimes. Sometimes (the injuries) come in bunches, sometimes they don’t happen at all.”
Grisham was scheduled for tests on the off-day Monday, so we don’t have a timetable yet. Even if it’s the minimum 10 days, it’s a big loss. Grisham is hitting .290/.373/.473 (138 wRC+) since May 1st and he’s one of the best bat-to-ball guys on the team (15.9 K% and 5.3% swinging strikes). Look at the Opening Day lineup:
1. CF Trent Grisham (hamstring)2. RF Aaron Judge (rib)3. LF Cody Bellinger4. 1B Ben Rice5. DH Giancarlo Stanton (calf)6. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.7. SS José Caballero8. 3B Ryan McMahon9. C Austin Wells (neck)
SP Max Fried (elbow)
Four of the nine position players and five of the 10 total players in the Opening Day lineup are now on the shelf, and other than Wells and maybe Grisham, none are coming back anytime soon. Judge is 2-4 weeks away from his next scans, nevermind starting a rehab assignment. Stanton suffered a setback over the weekend (more on that in a bit). Fried is early in his build up. The injuries, they’re mounting.
“No getting around it, we’ve lost some key people, but it’s part of it,” Boone told Phillips. “The 162 is coming for you. The one thing is I feel we’re way more equipped to deal with it than we have been in some years. It’s a great opportunity for some of our young players to get real opportunities.”
The original plan had Jasson Domínguez playing another rehab game Saturday, then the Yankees would figure out what to do with him after that. They instead brought him back to replace Grisham and threw him in right field Saturday for the first time in his MLB career (he played three rehab games there). It was the right move too. Domínguez is the best option and the defense makes more sense with him in right.
“It feels pretty good. It feels better than left field when I started,” Domínguez told Phillips about playing right field. (He also said he needed “four shots of espresso, two Red Bulls, and one pre-workout” to get ready for Saturday’s game after an early flight to Toronto. Oh, to be young.)
The outfield is Bellinger in left, Domínguez in right, and Spencer Jones in center until further notice. The kids will get an opportunity and hey, Domínguez hit a homer in his second at-bat Saturday (video). He had a hit and a walk Sunday. Jasson tweaked his righty stance in Spring Training and, Triple-A included, he’s hitting .412/.459/.765 with 13.5 K% against lefties in 2026. Small sample, of course, but hmmm.
I’m glad Domínguez and Jones will get some run here. I wish it wasn’t happening because Grisham and Judge got hurt, but as far as Plan Bs go, these two are better than most. For sure though, losing Grisham is a blow. He’d been so good the last few weeks. I’m looking forward to Domínguez/Jones but also hope Grisham’s injury is minor, and he can return soon. No more injuries, por favor.
Golden Oldie
What an awful, awful offseason it was here at RAB World Headquarters. My annual Offseason Plan looks like a disaster and I pooh-poohed almost every move the Yankees made, which just so happened to be bringing back a bunch of dudes they had last year. Chief among them was re-signing Paul Goldschmidt. I didn’t like it at all. Here’s what I wrote after the re-signing happened:
I wrote about a possible Goldschmidt reunion last week. I don’t like it. We watched him go over the cliff in real time last season. His power vanished, his contact skills and plate discipline began to erode (23.4 K% and 4.8 BB% in the second half), and everything about his defense other than scooping throws in the dirt is slipping too. For only two months in the last two years has Goldschmidt been even a league average first baseman.
Beyond the decline in skills at age 38, I think a first base only guy is terrible use of a bench spot. Cody Bellinger is the best defensive first baseman on the roster and part of his appeal is his versatility, right? Now there’s no real path to him playing first base without injuries (there's a reason he played only 26.2 innings at first base in 2025). The Goldschmidt re-signing chips away at the value of Bellinger’s versatility. He’s not really needed at first now.
The better move would have been signing a right-handed hitting outfielder, someone who could step in for Trent Grisham (or Jasson Domínguez) against lefties, and using Bellinger as Rice’s late-inning defensive replacement. That’s easier said than done (the best available righty hitting outfielders are end-of-the-line guys like Randal Grichuk and Tommy Pham) but that gives you a better, more complete roster.
A little more than two months into the season, Goldschmidt is hitting .295/.366/.532 (149 wRC+) with nine home runs, or one fewer than he hit all of last season. He had three homers against righties last year and already has four this year, none bigger than Saturday’s go-ahead two-run shot against Varland, who had yet to give up a homer this year and is holding righties to a .252 xSLG.
“I’m definitely not up there guessing. I was just trying to be ready to hit,” Goldschmidt told Hoch after Saturday’s game. “I joked in my head before that at-bat, ‘He hasn’t given up a run in forever. Maybe today will be the day.’ Fortunately, I was able to get him.”
Goldschmidt was hitting .311/.371/.455 (131 wRC+) through 70 team games last year, then fell off a cliff the rest of the way. Maybe that will happen again this season. I hope it doesn’t, but it could. It is worth noting Goldschmidt has moved up in the batter’s box though, and is catching the ball further out in front of the plate. He’s moved up five inches, to be specific.
(Black is where his feet start, red is where they end up. There’s no right answer to this either. Some guys like to hit up in the box, others like to hit at the back. What works for one hitter may not work for another.)
Goldschmidt’s intercept point (where the bat meets the ball) has accordingly moved up five inches, so he’s making contact further away from the catcher. When you do that, you’ll pull the ball more. Sure enough Goldschmidt’s 20.7% pulled air rate is a career high and up from 17.9% last year (MLB average: 16.8%). He’s already pulled seven homers this year. He had five pulled homers last year. Using the short porch is great. Using the short porch and pulling the ball is better.
There are some 2022 Matt Carpenter vibes with Goldschmidt. He hasn’t been Carpenter good, but he’s playing way more than expected and it’s getting hard to imagine the lineup without him. I’m okay pulling back on Goldschmidt’s playing time given his age, but Stanton’s setback means it won’t happen anytime soon. As usual, I was wrong about a move. Goldschmidt’s been tremendous. A godsend, really.
“I call him Young Goldy,” Domínguez told Greg Joyce. “Still got it.”
ABS update
Who could have foreseen Boone’s team being situationally unaware with ABS challenges? Not me, apparently. I predicted the Yankees would be the best ABS team. Stupid me. The Yankees ran out of challenges in the fourth inning Saturday after two obviously bad head taps by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cam Schlittler. Neither was close to correct (videos) and it was two low leverage situations:
Chisholm: 3-0 count with two outs and the bases empty in the fourth
Schlittler: 1-1 count with one out and the bases empty in the fourth
If you’re gonna take a shot there, you have to be sure. Like sure sure. 100% sure. It has to be egregious, not borderline. The Yankees do this way too often and it’s not confirmation bias. Going into the off-day Monday, they’d made the sixth most ABS challenges in baseball, and the leverage numbers tell us they’re not always using them in not the best spots. From the folks at Tap to Challenge:
Average ABS Leverage Index (combined hitters/fielders)1. Athletics: 1.562. Cardinals: 1.543. Padres: 1.48…MLB average: 1.30…29. Yankees: 1.0630. Nationals: 0.99
Medium leverage is the 0.85 to 2.0 range. Below that is low leverage and above that is high leverage, so the Yankees are much closer to the low leverage end of that range. They’ve attempted the sixth most ABS challenges and they’re near the bottom of the league in leverage index. That’s a lot of challenges in situations that aren’t super important, like those two Saturday.
I don’t think you can’t save your challenges until the seventh inning or something like that because games are won and lost in the early innings all the time. I also don’t think you can take ABS privileges away from certain players (i.e. Jazz) who are bad at challenging. There will be bad calls that are easy overturns even in low leverage situations early in the game, and you want to be able to correct those calls.
At the same time, the Yankees play too fast and loose with ABS. Too many challenges fall into the “what are you doing, man?” bucket. They just have to be smarter and less emotional about it, and show more restraint. I know that’s easy for me to say when I mostly watch on television and can see the strike zone box, but that’s what has to be done.
Miscellany
Saturday might’ve been David Bednar’s most dominant outing of the season. Three up, three down, three strikeouts, 13 pitches. He’s cut back on his curveball since the hanger to Tyrone Taylor. Bednar’s thrown 12 curveballs in nine appearances since then (zero curves in four of the nine). He threw 11 curveballs in his three appearances prior to that. Three times earlier this year he threw 10 curves in a single game. Maybe he’ll bring it back at some point, but, right now, Bednar is fastball/splitter almost exclusively … Two more homers and another bad start for Ryan Weathers on Friday: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 HR on 82 pitches. It’s the fourth time he’s allowed five runs in his last five starts, and in those five starts he’s given up nine homers. You can live with solo homers, but six of the nine have come with men on base. It’s probably not a coincidence Weathers threw a career high 31. 7% sinkers Friday. He’s trying to find a way to keep the ball in the park. I don’t know if he’s running out of gas as his workload climbs or what, but he’s making the “who goes to the bullpen when Fried returns?” decision easy … Cam Schlittler had to grind through some messy innings Saturday, but did that ace thing where he was really good despite not being at his best: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 7 K, 1 HR on 101 pitches (video). Major props to Chisholm for his diving catch in the fourth inning (video). That saved at least one run and likely two. If that gets through, the game is completely different. Jazz saved Schlittler’s line and then some … Friday and Saturday were the first time José Caballero started back-to-back games at short since his first two games off the injured list. Anthony Volpe played short against the lefty Sunday (Caballero was at second) and the Yankees are tentatively scheduled to see three lefties in the next eight games. Is Volpe a straight platoon guy now? Or was this weekend a one-off? The next few games should clarify things … Two hits for Ali Sánchez on Sunday, which answers the, “What happens first, a catcher has a multi-hit game or Judge returns?” question I posed Friday. The catchers had four hits in Toronto, equaling their total from the previous 13 games … And finally, Carlos Lagrange made his third Triple-A relief appearance Sunday: 3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR on 41 pitches. He retired the first six batters he faced (five strikeouts), then ran into trouble in his third inning. Lagrange pitched on normal four days’ rest. I bet the Yankees trim a day next time and he’ll pitch on three days' rest for the first time in his career.
Injury updates and roster notes
Giancarlo Stanton (calf) felt something in his calf running the bases over the weekend and went for tests on Monday. The plan was to activate him during this homestand, but obviously that’s not happening. Stanton was placed on the injured list on April 25th. At this point, he might be a 60-day IL candidate if the Yankees need a 40-man roster spot … Max Fried (elbow) got the okay to throw off a mound. His latest scans showed enough healing. Fried threw a light bullpen Saturday (they call it a touch-and-feel bullpen) and will do it again soon. He’s still several weeks away, but at least things are moving in the right direction … Austin Wells (neck) will play rehab games this week. I’m not sure how many he’ll play, but he’s not far away. Today is the first day he’s eligible to be activated, by the way … Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a little beat up. It’s typical baseball stuff. He fouled a pitch into his foot recently, banged his hand on a slide, etc. Jazz didn’t start against the lefty Sunday, but he came off a bench and stole two bases, so whatever he’s playing through can’t be too bad. Still, the last thing the Yankees need is Chisholm missing time.
Up next
The first of three straight series against Central teams. The Yankees will see the upstart White Sox and Reds in the Bronx, then they’ll go to Detroit. Also, it’s HOPE Week. The Yankees have several charitable events lined up and you’ll hear about them during game broadcasts and/or at the stadium. Here’s what’s coming between now and Friday’s post:
Tuesday vs. ChiSox: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Davis Martin (7pm ET on YES)
Wednesday vs. ChiSox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Anthony Kay (7pm ET on Amazon)
Thursday vs. ChiSox: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP Sean Burke (7pm ET on YES)
The White Sox show that lengthy rebuilds in the three Wild Card era are a scam, and an indictment of ownership and the front office. They lost 121 games two years ago. Now they’re a good team that’s in the division race. Their 38-32 record is mostly supported by their run differential (+12) and BaseRuns record (36-34). I think they’re AL Central Good more than Actually Good, but they’re no pushover.
Andrew Benintendi, Lenyn Sosa, and Miguel Vargas are the only players who've taken an at-bat for both the 2024 and 2026 White Sox, and Sosa got DFAed in April. They turned over their lineup via internal promotions, trades, and lower cost free agent signings. It’s an offense-first team: 4.76 runs scored per game (7th in MLB) and 4.59 runs allowed per game (19th in MLB). The White Sox can bang.
It is notable that Chicago has an enormous home/road split. At home, they’re 24-12 with a +32 run differential. On the road, it’s 14-20 and -20. It’s all pitching. The home/road split on offense is relatively small (107 wRC+ vs. 104 wRC+). The guys on the mound have a 3.41 ERA (4.20 FIP) at home compared to 5.30 ERA (4.62 FIP) on the road. So, please, score some runs, Yankees.
2. Scouting the Trade Market: Controllable relievers. The Yankees keep losing players elsewhere on the roster to injury, but the bullpen remains the No. 1 priority at the trade deadline. Ideally they’ll bring in a legit high leverage dude (or two) with a bat-missing fastball. The bullpen’s 22.8 K% (12th in MLB) is too low for my liking. Maybe Carlos Lagrange can fix that. Until he does, bullpen help is needed.
The good news is the Yankees are always active at the deadline, specifically when it comes to boosting their bullpen. They’ve added multiple relievers at four of the last five trade deadlines. Those trades haven’t always worked out, but attempts to improve the bullpen were made. Here are the recent deadline reliever additions:
2025: David Bednar, Jake Bird, Camilo Doval
2024: Enyel De Los Santos, Mark Leiter Jr.
2023: Keynan Middleton
2022: Scott Effross, Lou Trivino
2021: Clay Holmes, Joely Rodríguez
Middleton was the only rental. Everyone else came with at least one more year of control and most came with multiple years of control. If the Yankees are gonna trade a prospect(s) for a reliever, they want that reliever for more than 15-20 innings in the current season. I don’t think that means rental relievers are completely off the table. It just means the Yankees prefer guys with control.
With that in mind, let’s dig into some relievers with control beyond 2026 who may or may not be available at the deadline. This is far from a comprehensive list. This is merely the first batch of names. I’m sure we’ll look at more controllable bullpeners between now and deadline day (Monday, Aug. 3rd). Let’s get to it.
RHP Lake Bachar, Marlins
2026 stats: 3.05 ERA (3.70 FIP), 29.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 36.7 BB% in 38.1 IP
The skinny: The Marlins have a small army of controllable relievers they could move at the deadline. I picked Bachar out of a group that includes Anthony Bender, Calvin Faucher, Michael Peterson, and others because Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) recently reported that folks within baseball expect him to be a popular name at the deadline. That seems like a good enough reason to spotlight him.
Bachar, 31, is not the hard-thrower I would like the Yankees to add. He sits mid-90s and throws four other pitches (curveball, splitter, sweeper, slider) at least 10% of the time each. The wide arsenal means he’s effective against lefties and can go multiple innings. 13 times in 22 appearances he’s gone two innings, and twice he’s gone three innings. He’s faced as many as 11 batters in a game, so into the second time through the order.
The Marlins have a ton of pitching injuries and have used Bachar as an opener and to start bullpen games several times this month. His velocity has at times dipped closer to the 93-94 mph range in longer outings, and while that’s not ideal, I’m not sure it’s a huge deal because he’s so secondary heavy. Bachar looks like a classic super utility pitcher. You can use him in almost any situation.
Bachar definitely seems up the Yankees alley. They love relievers with knockout secondary pitches they can spam and Bachar is pushing 40% whiff rates with the curveball and sweeper. I don’t love Bachar as a fit because he’s more what the Yankees already have (i.e. secondary/chase focused), but does he clear the “better than Jake Bird/Paul Blackburn/Ryan Yarbrough” bar? Yeah, probably.
Contract status: This is Bachar’s second pre-arbitration year, so he has four years of control remaining, plus one more as a league minimum guy in 2027. He also has two minor league options remaining too. That said, the guy is 31 already. Similar to Bird, if you have to use Bachar’s options, something’s going wrong. I’m sure Miami is open to trading him given their place in the standings and where they are in their perpetual rebuild.
RHP Sam Bachman, Angels
2026 stats: 3.31 ERA (4.30 FIP), 25.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, 50.6% in 32.2 IP
The skinny: The No. 9 pick in the 2021 draft, Bachman reached the big leagues in May 2023. He needed arthroscopic shoulder surgery and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery soon thereafter, and didn’t get back to the show until last May. Bachman’s stuff has fully recovered. He’s averaging 98.8 mph with his sinker this year and has run it as high as 101.6 mph. There’s red in plenty of places:
Still only 26, Bachman is a sinker/slider/changeup guy who is throwing 53% sliders and 15% changeups this year. The models like the pitch data (102 Stuff+) but not where those pitches end up (91 Location+). Camilo Doval has a similarly huge arm and he’s running a 4.5 BB% this year. It was 13.5 BB% from 2024-25. Perhaps the Yankees could improve Bachman’s control like they improved Doval’s?
This feels like a classic “guy with great stuff on an incompetent team who we can coach up” situation. The Yankees love those kinda guys. Bachman would definitely bring velocity to a bullpen that needs it, and it seems like more whiffs could be unlocked with better location. He pitches in the zone with his slider a lot. Too much, really. Use it to get chases and strikeouts are there. (Easier said than done, of course.)
Contract status: Bachman is in his second pre-arb year and he’ll qualify as a Super Two after this season, so it’ll be four arb years rather one more pre-arb and the usual three arb. That’s not a big deal. Bachman still has fewer than 100 career MLB innings, he doesn’t have a pile of saves, nothing like that. His arb salaries won’t break the bank at all.
The question is will the Angels trade him? They took baseball’s second worst record (29-43) and eighth worst run differential (-28) into Monday. Any rational person would say yes, trade the reliever who isn’t far removed from shoulder and TOS surgery when you’re that bad. The Angels aren’t rational though. They’re terrible and they’re either oblivious to why they’re terrible, in denial that they are terrible, or both.
Bachman is the Angels best reliever and, despite his injury history and the team barrelling toward its 12th consecutive postseason-less season, you can’t count on him being available this summer. It’s dumb, but that’s reality. Bachman is a good reliever now and it feels like there’s a great reliever in there waiting to be unlocked (there are a lot of Clay Holmes similarities here). For sure, give the Angels a call and try.
LHP Daniel Lynch IV, Royals
2026 stats: 1.80 ERA (2.70 FIP), 24.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 50.0 GB% in 30 IP
The skinny: I knew the Royals were having a bad year, but I didn’t realize it’s “same record as the Angels (as of Monday)” bad. Yeesh. Lynch, 29, is one of their few bright spots. He moved into the bullpen full-time two years ago and was solid enough. He’s made a leap this season because his velocity keeps ticking up (mid-90s now), he’s settled on a sinker as his primary fastball, and he’s made a few other tweaks.
Lynch is annihilating lefties this year (.169 wOBA) and holding his own against righties (.293 wOBA), and that last part was a problem in the past. The sinker and his reshaped changeup have kept him off the barrel against righties. That strikeout rate isn’t elite, but Lynch is among the league’s best at limiting exit velocity (86.9 mph average) and barrels (5.0%), and that’s the Yankees’ thing.
Barrel Rate Allowed1. Yankees: 5.9%2. Brewers: 6.6%3. Braves: 6.8%(MLB average: 8.1%)
Personal favorite Lucas Erceg has been so bad. Despite those closer problems, the Royals have kept Lynch in a fireman role so he can match up with the other team’s top hitters, and he’s excelled. I wish his strikeout rate was higher, but Lynch is experienced in high leverage situations and he’s awfully tough to square up. That equals a really good trade target.
Contract status: Lynch is making $1.025M this season, his second arb year as a Super Two. He has two more arb seasons ahead of him, and, even as good as he’s been, his salary won’t climb too high. Lynch is starting from a low salary baseline and he doesn’t have the saves or All-Star appearances to make big bucks as a reliever through arbitration. He has an option left, but if you use it, something bad happened.
The Royals have a strong enough talent base (Jac Caglianone, Maikel Garcia, Carter Jensen, Bobby Witt Jr., etc.) that, despite being so bad this season, keeping the team together and trying to contend in 2027 is not a crazy idea. This might be a situation where the price is so high that it just doesn’t make sense to make the trade. Given his ability to limit hard contact, I’m certain the Yankees have interest in Lynch.
RHP Justin Sterner, Athletics
2026 stats: 3.38 ERA (3.92 FIP), 23.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 41.9 GB% in 32 IP
The skinny: The 29-year-old Sterner doesn’t light up the radar gun or stuff models. The fastball is 92-94 mph, he backs it up with cutters and sweepers, and he throws his three pitches almost equally. Sterner is about as unpredictable as you can be with only three pitches, and he’s very deceptive. His arm action makes it look like he’s pulling the ball out of his ear:
That’s Sterner’s cutter, by the way. Not his sweeper. His cutter cuts an awful lot and his sweeper sweeps even more than that. Since the start of 2025, Sterner has generated a 33.7% chase rate, which ranks 12th among the 245 pitchers with at least 90 innings. That’s identical to Bednar and Cristopher Sánchez, and technically ahead of Chris Sale (33.6%). Sterner’s one of the top chase-getters in baseball.
Those chases haven’t produced a sky high strikeout rate or a very low barrel rate, but it keeps Sterner effective. His 1.39 HR/9 (12.8% HR/FB) since the start of last year is scary, though it’s 1.76 HR/9 (14.3% HR/FB) at the launching pad in Sacramento and 0.98 HR/9 (10.6% HR/FB) on the road. Sterner seems middle reliever-y to me, but I know there are folks in the game who like him and think there might be more in the tank with a few tweaks.
Contract status: Sterner came into this season with less than a full year of service time. Trade for him at the deadline and you get him for 5.5 years. He’ll be a Super Two, but who cares? The A’s need to add pitching, not subtract one of their better relievers, though they march to the beat of their own drum. I could see Sterner being dealt as part of a buy-and-sell strategy at the deadline.
RHP Will Vest, Tigers
2026 stats: 6.53 ERA (3.44 FIP), 25.3 K%, 8.8 BB%, 60.3 GB% in 20.2 IP
The skinny: The Tigers had won seven of 11 going into Monday night, and that little hot streak improved them to 29-42. Blame the offense (97 wRC+). Tarik Skubal returned Saturday. Detroit now has a six-week runway to rattle off wins (A LOT of wins) to get back into the postseason race, otherwise they’re gonna have to trade Skubal and their other rentals (Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, etc.).
Vest, 31, is not a rental, though I do think the Tigers would listen if they decide to sell. He’s 31 already, he missed time with a forearm issue earlier this year, and it’s one more year of control, not two or three. The ERA is awful (you can partly blame a five-run outing last month) and the under-the-hood numbers aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past, and they’re not trending the right way either:
Any interest in Vest will be based on the fact that he’s still sitting mid-90s and has a slider that is running close to a 50% whiff rate. There’s also the track record, which is excellent (2.93 ERA and 2.71 FIP from 2023-25). Vest was a monster the last two postseasons as well: 14 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 18 K. He’s familiar with high leverage duty and pressure packed October situations.
There is some decline in the stuff though (fastball is down 1 mph this year) and the forearm injury. Vest came back in less than two weeks, so it wasn’t a major injury, but still, it’s an arm injury. The guy’s stuff is down a tick and he’s getting hit harder. There are worse dice rolls than someone with Vest’s track record. How comfortable are you that he can be that 2023-25 guy again? Are you content with the current 3.44 FIP version?
Contract status: Like I said, Vest has one more year of control remaining. He’s making $3.96M this year and that will jump into the $5M to $6M range next season. After years of leaning into coach ‘em up types, the Yankees went after pedigree with Bednar and Doval last year. Vest would be a similar addition, albeit one with more red flags than Bednar/Doval showed at this time last summer.
3. 2026 draft prospect: Massachusetts HS LHP Brody Bumila. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Bumila, 18, is huge even by Yankees standards. He’s listed at 6-foot-9 and 255 lbs., and he averaged 40 points and 20 rebounds a game en route to the state basketball championship this spring. Bumila’s future is on the mound though. He’s one of the top high school pitching prospects in the draft class and might have the most long-term upside. Here’s where he sits in the most recent draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 22
ESPN: No. 34
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 44
MLB Pipeline: No. 19
Bumila has already had his elbow cut open. He had the internal brace procedure last year, not full blown Tommy John surgery, but still, his UCL had to be repaired. The rehab went well and he returned this spring without an issue. Here’s video and here’s part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
All discussions about Bumila start with his elite fastball. Not only can he crank it up to over 100 mph, but Bumila’s extension and low release height are outliers, creating 19-20 inches of inverted vertical break. In the Massachusetts high school ranks, he doesn’t need much more, though he does have a decent slider and changeup. He can vary the shape of his 88-89 mph breaker, and it should translate to pro ball, while he sells his upper-80s cambio with good arm speed, a pitch with some armside fade to it.
Bumila’s already-premium stuff could take another leap forward when he gets pro instruction; he likes digging into metrics and pitch design, so access to professional technology should help. He throws strikes, though he’s definitely control over command at this point. Because of his overall athleticism, the Texas recruit does a nice job of keeping all of his large moving parts fairly coordinated in repeating his delivery.
According to Baseball America (subs. req'd), the Yankees have “apparently been all over” Bumila the last few weeks. They haven’t taken a high school pitcher with their top pick since Ty Hensley in 2012, and they’ve taken only two pitchers with their last 10 top picks period (Clarke Schmidt in 2017 and Ben Hess in 2024). A high school pitcher would be very against the grain, but come on, doesn’t Bumila sound Yankee-like?
Teams have steered away from high school pitchers in the first round the last few years because there is so much injury risk and because they have more data (both scouting and analytical) on college pitchers. Bumila is not a slam dunk first rounder as it is, and the aversion to high school arms could push him down to the Yankees at No. 35. I’m skeptical they’d go in this direction, but maybe.
4. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB sent out the first All-Star Game voting update Monday. Aaron Judge leads all AL outfielders in votes and Cody Bellinger is third behind Judge and Mike Trout. Ben Rice is second to Vlad Guerrero Jr. at first base. No other Yankees are currently in position to advance to Phase 2 of the voting. Phase 1 closes at 12pm ET next Thursday, June 25th. Here’s the ballot and here’s the voting update.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)