June 23rd, 2026: Schlittler, Warren, Rodríguez, Wells, Volpe, Caballero, Goldschmidt
Here’s the Tarik Skubal trade poll I ran Monday, in case you missed it. The trade deadline is still six weeks away, but I wanted to get that out there now because the Yankees will face Skubal tomorrow and again next week, and I didn’t want that to skew the results. He could dominate and boost the “yes” votes, get rocked and juice the “no” votes, etc. So, there’s the poll, and here is today’s post.
1. Weekend thoughts. Saturday’s 10-2 loss was the first time in a while the Yankees really got their asses kicked, and even then it was a manageable-ish 6-1 deficit through seven innings. It was their first loss by more than five runs since May 13th in Baltimore (the Max Fried injury game). Monday’s game looked headed down that road, but the Yankees managed to hang around and keep it somewhat interesting.
For whatever reason, the Reds have taken it to the Yankees the last few years. They’re 6-9 against the Reds since 2022. Here’s the breakdown:
2026: 1-2
2025: 1-2
2024: 0-3
2023: 3-0
2022: 1-2
The only series win came during that wretched 2023 season. I guess that’s a good omen then? Lose the series to the Reds and you’ll have a good season, or at least not a disaster season like 2023. The Yankees did well grinding out at-bats against Chase Burns on Sunday (96 pitches in five innings), but could only muster one run on Ben Rice’s solo homer (video).
“Sometimes a lineup will do that to you too,” Reds manager Terry Francona told Mark Sheldon about the Yankees working Burns hard. “That leadoff kid, I don’t know how many guys in the league I’ve seen hit that ball off Chase. That’s probably up above the strike zone at 98. That kid’s pretty special.”
Sunday was the first time ever – ever! – the Yankees had three players steal multiple bases in a game. The Highlanders did it a few times, but not the Yankees. Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Jasson Domínguez all stole two bags that afternoon. And the Yankees scored just the one run on Rice’s solo homer. They're in an ugly RISP funk right now: 3-for-37 in their last four games. Yuck.
“I’ll take the opportunities. We’ll cash in,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Sunday’s loss. “Even these last two days where they’ve held us down, I feel like we’ve had good at-bats and given ourselves opportunities. We just haven’t had that hit.”
This RISP funk is like every RISP funk every team goes through every season, often multiple times. Even the Brewers, who had smart people wondering if they had cracked the clutch code, had a 4-for-31 stretch with RISP this past weekend. The Yankees had a 13-run inning without a home run a few weeks ago. You can’t do that without the RISP gods taking their pound of flesh later in the season.
That isn’t to say this is fun to sit through. It sucks, but it’s just baseball. Going into Monday, the Yankees ranked tenth in AVG (.255), seventh in OBP (.351), sixth in SLG (.461), and fifth in wRC+ (115) with RISP. I’ve been exposed to all 30 fan bases through my work at CBS and all of them think their team sucks with RISP. Every single one. The Yankees are a good hitting team in a rut. That’s all.
The rotation though? The starters have a 4.58 ERA (4.36 FIP) in June after running a 2.97 ERA (3.37 FIP) in April/May. The rotation isn’t actually sub-3.00 ERA good, but this has been a pretty big step down. Will Warren and Ryan Weathers are beginning to pitch like No. 4-5 starters and Gerrit Cole’s command has been stinky. Maybe don’t throw so many two-strike fastballs down the middle, Gerrit?
Six times in the last 13 games the starter has failed to complete five innings. Max Fried isn’t coming back anytime soon. It’s on these guys to be better, especially with so much offense/power on the shelf. Power shortage + RISP funk + shaky rotation work + half the lineup playing out of position = bad times. Three straight losses for the first time since May 20-22. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Schlittler and lefty sinkers
Going into the series, the Reds had the lowest AVG (.196), the lowest SLG (.307), and the ninth highest whiff rate (22.7%) against 95+ mph fastballs. They were a great matchup for Cam Schlittler, yet it seemed like it took Eugenio Suárez poking a two-strike curveball to right field for a single in the second inning for Schlittler to realize it. He threw 60 consecutive fastballs after that, and 69 of his final 70 pitches were fastballs. Schlittler’s final line: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13 K on 96 pitches (video).
“I haven’t done an excellent job over the last month or so, pitching here, so it’s important to go out there and have a dominant start,” Schlittler told Hoch after setting a new career high in strikeouts. “… It’s early. I’ve got a lot to work on. We’ve got some really good pitchers in this clubhouse. The most I can do is go out there, stay healthy and consistent, and try to win this team some games.”
True to the scouting report, the Reds missed with 18 of their 47 swings against Schlittler’s fastballs (38%), and the balls they put in play produced an 84.5 mph average exit velocity. Here are the swing and miss pitches. This is just dominance. Schlittler lived on the top rail and the Reds couldn’t do anything with it.
“From back there (at second base), it just looks crazy nasty,” Chisholm told Hoch. “You see guys swing under every pitch and you just don’t understand. From behind, it looks like everybody’s off by a lot.”
There are a few four-seamers hiding under that blob of four-seamers just above the zone too. For all the talk about the velocity, Schlittler commands his fastballs (plural) well and he was locked in at the letters on Friday. Just a masterful performance, really. He’s now the only pitcher in baseball history (!) with a 12+ strikeout, zero-walk performance in both the regular season and postseason.
Two weeks ago I noted the swinging strike rate on Schlittler’s four-seamer was trending down while the foul ball rate ticked up, particularly against lefties, which suggested hitters were gearing up for the pitch. The last few times out, Schlittler has pulled back on the four-seamer against lefties and begun throwing more sinkers. He threw 42% sinkers to lefties Friday, by far the highest rate of his career.
Four of Schlittler’s five highest sinker rates to lefties have come in his last five starts, so this is definitely a new thing. I’m curious to see what happens when Schlittler faces the Red Sox on Thursday because the Red Sox have seen him more than any other MLB team. They saw him in Wild Card Game 3 last year and on April 23rd and June 7th this year. Thursday will be the second time they see him in 19 days.
The Red Sox have a weak offense and can’t hit much of anything, nevermind premium velocity, but they are Major League hitters. Give them enough looks and they’ll get comfortable. Does Schlittler lean further into sinkers? Use more curveballs? I’m not sure. We’ll find out in two days. For now, Schlittler was terrific against the Reds last week. He’s 30 starts into his career and has a 2.25 ERA (2.83 FIP). Wowza.
“I think he should actually start the All-Star Game,” Chisholm told Hoch. “He’s pretty laid back, so I don’t know if he’s going to be super amped up for it, but I think it’d be pretty cool to see him out there pitching in the All-Star Game.”
Warren’s lefty troubles return
Will Warren was really bad Saturday: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K on 90 pitches. The defense didn’t do him any favors, but Warren gave up six extra-base hits (five doubles and a homer) and a lot of loud contact, and that’s not on the defense. He let a bad inning snowball Sunday and two starts ago against the Guardians. The lefty problems that dogged Warren last year have returned:
April vs. LHB: .237/.297/.407 (.310 wOBA)
May vs. LHB: .254/.308/.380 (.304 wOBA)
June vs. LHB: .333/.429/.467 (.398 wOBA)
Back in April, I noted Warren had begun to embrace front door sinkers to lefties after pitching away with the pitch almost exclusively last season. Even if he didn’t execute it perfectly and get it to run back and catch the inside corner for a called strike, it gave hitters something else to think about. Lefties could no longer dig it, get really comfortable, and think away. Well, those front door sinkers have dried up:
Those sinkers below the zone in June suggest to me that Warren is still trying to use it inside to lefties, but he’s not executing. His velocity has dipped slightly lately, with a bunch of 93-94s this month after he lived closer to 95-96 in April, though I’m not too concerned about that. Warren’s velocity hasn’t fallen off so much as it has returned to last year’s level. Between that and the sinker locations, his delivery seems off.
I’m hopeful Warren’s recent hiccups against lefties are the product of a midseason mechanical funk that is preventing him from executing those inside sinkers. He’s a good pitcher and definitely over-hated by much of the fan base, but, realistically, he’s not the 3.22 ERA (3.27 FIP) guy he was in April/May. He’s good but not that good. Get on track mechanically, limit the big innings, and things will be a-okay.
The spot sixth starter
A few weeks ago I said I would love to see the Yankees use a spot sixth starter at some point during this stretch of 16 games in 16 days to give the regular starters an extra day, and they did exactly that Sunday. Elmer Rodríguez came up to make the spot start, and everyone got pushed back a day and was given a little breather in mid-June. Hooray for that. This was the series of roster moves:
Saturday: Jake Bird optioned after the game
Sunday: Rodríguez called up to make spot start
Monday: Rodríguez optioned and Yerry De Los Santos called up
“He’s recovered well,” Boone told Gary Phillips about Cole, who was originally scheduled to start Sunday. “But we also want to play the long game with all these guys. Obviously, Carlos coming back (from surgery), younger guys in the rotation have logged a lot of innings. I feel like they’re all in a good spot, but we want to be mindful of this as we go through the summer with a long stretch here.”
Rodríguez did a good job pitching around defensive sloppiness/stupidity in the first inning, but he didn’t pitch well overall. Behind in the count a bunch, not much swing and miss, got away with a few hangers, then he grooved a 3-1 fastball to Tyler Stephenson in pretty much the only part of the strike zone where Stephenson has shown any SLG this season.
Rodríguez is a secondary pitch guy, not someone who can lean on his four-seamer/sinker to get outs, and his secondary command isn’t good enough to be a full-time big league starter yet. The best way to use him right now is exactly how the Yankees have used him: As a spot starter you can send through the lineup twice. Command wasn’t great Sunday and the home run pitch was bad. C'est la vie.
The Yankees prioritized the big picture with the spot start and I am completely cool with it. I would even be cool with it if the Yankees want to do it again in five days, though Brendan Beck would have to make the spot start, not Rodríguez. The 15-day rule means he couldn’t come back up yet. It doesn’t sound like this is in the works though. The Yankees planned just this one extra rest day. That works for me.
To win in October, you have to begin planning in February, and that plan has to be carried out throughout the summer. Rodríguez didn’t pitch all that well Sunday, but the Yankees scored one stinkin’ run, so it’s not fair to say the spot start plan cost them a win. The AL stinks and the third Wild Card is very forgiving. That gives the Yankees the freedom to do things like use a spot sixth starter, and I’m glad they did.
(De Los Santos over Yovanny Cruz isn’t a grave injustice. Cruz has allowed seven runs in his last four appearances with Scranton, and only four of his last 12 Triple-A appearances have been scoreless. I’m the low man on Cruz. I think he’s just an up/down guy. I would like to see more at some point though, just in case I'm wrong and he is more than an up/down guy.)
Miscellany
I thought I would have more to say about Austin Wells returning Sunday, but I guess not. Hopefully he feels better and hopefully he hits. J.C. Escarra and Ali Sánchez went a combined 10-for-39 (.256) while Wells was on the injured list, but there’s no reason to think that would continue. Unless/until the Yankees made a trade, Wells is the guy behind the plate, and he needs to be better than he has been … Anthony Volpe is on a heater: 12-for-26 (.462) with five walks and six strikeouts in his last eight games. We’ve seen him have great two-week stretches before, so I’m not reading anything into it. I’m just acknowledging the hot streak. Volpe’s arm hasn’t looked great though, no? Statcast backs up the eye test:
The fall from 81.9 mph to 79.6 mph is the fall from below average to one of the worst in baseball. I’m not sure how much longer Volpe will be a viable shortstop with his arm being what it is, but his position isn’t gonna matter unless he hits anyway … José Caballero has reached base six times in his last four games. Here is the recap of those six times on base in reverse chronological order:
Monday, 2nd inning: Walk, stole second, scored on a single.
Sunday, 6th inning: Single, moved to third on a single, stranded.
Sunday, 2nd inning: Single, caught stealing second.
Saturday, 8th inning: Ground ball, reached second on an error, stranded.
Saturday, 2nd inning: Walk, stole second, picked off second.
Thursday, 5th inning: Single, reached second on an error, picked off second.
Caballero has made an out on the bases three times in his last six times on base. Caught stealing? Okay, it happens, but getting picked off second? That can’t happen as often as it has. Caballero has been picked off five times this year, the second most in baseball (Lawrence Butler has six), and he’s 16-for-23 (70%) stealing bases. I appreciate the aggressiveness, but that’s too many outs on the bases … After all the pinch-hitting moves earlier in the game, we got a Max Schuemann/José Caballero/Jasson Domínguez outfield from left to right Sunday. That is certainly one of the outfields of all-time. Domínguez has looked rough in right field. He’s not a good defender to start with. Add in his inexperience, and, well, this is what you get … Carlos Lagrange made his fifth Triple-A relief appearance Sunday: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K on 22 pitches (video). He was up to 100.9 mph. Lagrange was on two days’ rest, his least rest yet, and it was the first time he came in for one inning and only one inning. His first true short relief appearance. Not sure what the plan is moving forward, but it definitely feels like we’re getting closer to seeing Lagrange in the Bronx … And finally, I think the YES scorebug needs a 10-day IL stint. Several times in the last few days the score has been wrong, the count has been wrong, the outs have been wrong. Sloppy sloppy sloppy.
Injury updates and roster notes
Max Fried (elbow) threw about 30 pitches in his most recent bullpen over the weekend and everything went well. Boone said they’re targeting “the end of this month or the start of next month” for Fried facing hitters in live BP, per Erik Boland. That suggests a late-July or early-August return … Trent Grisham (hamstring) has begun on-field workouts and things are going well. The Yankees haven’t given any kinda timetable for his return, but he’s progressing with his rehab work … Luis Gil (shoulder) started a throwing program last weekend. It might be worth sticking him in the bullpen the rest of the year and seeing what it looks like in one-inning bursts rather than spending all that time stretching him out … J.C. Escarra was sent down to clear a roster spot for Wells and he’s probably coming right back after Ali Sánchez took that fastball to the wrist Monday, and left the game in serious pain. X-rays came back negative, but he's going for a CT scan to check it out further (Sánchez is due to go on the paternity list any day now too) … Eric Reyzelman (back) was activated off Scranton’s 7-day IL on Sunday. He missed 16 days. At least in 2026, I think Reyzelman’s an up/down guy more than a bullpen fix, but at least he’s healthy and available again … And finally, Peter Strzelecki opted out of his minor league contract over the weekend. The Yankees signed him on May 23rd, he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings with Scranton, then he opted out on June 18th. So long, Pete.
Up next
This week is a bit off-kilter with both posts coming in the middle of a series. It be like that sometimes. The Yankees have their final two games in Detroit before going to Boston for a four-game weekend series. Here is what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:
Tuesday at Tigers: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Casey Mize (6:30pm ET on YES)
Wednesday at Tigers: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (6:30pm ET on Amazon)
Thursday at Red Sox: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
(Thursday’s TBA vs. TBA lines up to be Cam Schlittler vs. Connelly Early.)
Because the Yankees used the spot starter Sunday and pushed everyone back, we missed a Schlittler vs. Skubal matchup Thursday. Too bad. We’ll have to wait for Game 1 of the ALDS, I guess. The Yankees are seven games into this 16 games in 16 days stretch. Two more in Detroit, four games in Boston, then three games against the Tigers at Yankee Stadium.
2. 2026 draft prospect: Texas Tech OF Logan Hughes. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Hughes, 21, is a “he’s hit everywhere he’s played” type who played his freshman year at Stetson before transferring to Texas Tech. He had almost as many homers (19) as strikeouts (24) last year, and this year he slashed .375/.510/.735 (170 wRC+) with 18 homers and many more walks (19.5%) than strikeouts (12.8%). Here’s where Hughes places in the most recent draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 42
ESPN: Outside top 85
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 56
MLB Pipeline: No. 47
Hughes checked the Cape Cod League box last summer, hitting .265/.386/.373 with more walks (15.1%) than strikeouts (13.9%) against some of the best college pitchers in the country. (The Cape average was .240/.343/.337 with 22.8 K% and 11.3 BB% last year.) Here’s video and here’s a snippet of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Hughes scores well analytically because he makes good swing decisions and a lot of contact against all types of pitches, producing a lot of hard line drives. He has a pretty left-handed swing that's compact and quick, and he possesses plus raw power. With his hitting ability, he should be able to make adjustments to allow him to launch balls to his pull side more frequently and get to 20-25 homers per season.
He'll have to produce at the plate because Hughes doesn't offer much value elsewhere. He's a below-average runner with arm strength to match, which limits his defensive options. He can look shaky at times in left field, and at 5-foot-11, he lacks the ideal size for first base.
The Yankees can (and often do) hide subpar defensive outfielders in right field. It sounds like Hughes can really hit. Guys who can handle all pitch types (fastballs, breaking balls, etc.) are like gold in this game, and the Yankees typically prioritize hitters who perform on the Cape. That said, they also tend to prioritize guys with defensive value, at least with their top pick. The bat-only guys are later round targets.
I could see the Yankees loving Hughes’ bat but not the rest of the package, and hoping he gets to their second round pick (No. 63) rather than burning their top pick (No. 35) on him. Sometimes guys like Hughes turn into Michael Brantley, and hit so much you live with the defense. And sometimes they turn into Willie Calhoun, and just can’t hit enough to justify the lack of everything else.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. I don’t think Paul Goldschmidt has played enough to deserve a spot in the All-Star Game (he’s 100+ plate appearances behind everyday players), but maybe he’ll get in as a Legends Pick? Rob Manfred selects those, and previous Legends Picks were all-time greats in their final season (Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Albert Pujols). As good as he’s been in his career, Goldschmidt is not at that level, plus we don’t know if this will be his final season. I dunno. The Legends Pick thing crossed my mind and I figured I’d mention it. That this is even something worth thinking about is cool. Goldschmidt’s been a godsend these last few weeks … And finally, the second All-Star Game fan voting update was released Monday. Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and Ben Rice are the only Yankees currently in position to advance to Phase 2, though Jazz Chisholm Jr. is within striking distance at second base. Phase 1 ends Thursday and, reminder, the vote totals reset for Phase 2. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a huge lead over Rice at first base (1,458,461 vs. 882,772), but that won’t matter in a few days. They start over at 0 vs. 0. Here’s the ballot if you care to vote.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)