June 26th, 2026: Goldschmidt, Domínguez, Chisholm, Schlittler, Weathers, Rice, Lai, Mailbag
The Tarik Skubal trade poll closed yesterday and the middle road – “Yes, but only after addressing their other needs” – won, which I figured would happen. I thought it would be well over 50% though. Instead, it won with 44% of the vote. The other two options – “Yes. He should be the top priority” and “No. Use the prospects to address more important needs” – split the rest of the vote evenly at 28% each. Huh.
The Yankees beat Skubal on Wednesday. He’s given up six home runs in three starts off the injured list after giving up six homers in his previous 14 starts dating back to last year. In a free edition of his newsletter, Lance Brozdowski noted Skubal’s velocity is up but his location is off, which could just be rust. The trade deadline is five weeks and three days away. The Skubal situation will continue to bear monitoring.
Otherwise the Yankees are 7-5 since Trent Grisham joined Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list. They’re averaging 4.67 runs scored in those 12 games, which is solid, but it’s only 2.88 runs in their last eight games. The Yankees are in survival mode while three of their five best hitters are on the shelf, and they’re doing a good job surviving. Here now is today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees lost Gerrit Cole’s start but won Tarik Skubal’s start in Detroit. You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn. Skubal might request a trade to the Yankees just so he doesn’t have to face Paul Goldschmidt again next week. Goldschmidt took him deep twice Wednesday and is now 7-for-13 (.538) with four homers* against Skubal. Sal Perez is the only other hitter with four homers against Skubal.
“I have no idea,” Goldschmidt told Steve Kornacki when asked to explain his success against Skubal. “Obviously he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and facing him is a tough challenge. There’s not really a recipe to try to beat him. He’s got four really good pitches and competes as well as anyone.”
* The four homers vs. Skubal are tied for the second most Goldschmidt has hit off a single pitcher. Who has Goldschmidt taken deep the most? Tim Lincecum! He has seven career homers against Lincecum, who last pitched in 2016. Goldy’s been around a while, eh?
The Yankees will see Skubal again next week, and, if they beat him again, I think the CBA says the Tigers will be legally obligated to trade him to the Yankees. Other than Goldschmidt, Skubal carved through the Yankees the first two times through the lineup. The third time around they went nine-pitch strikeout, first pitch single, ninth pitch two-run homer. The three homers Skubal surrendered (videos):
Goldschmidt hit two pretty good pitches out: 96 mph fastball up near his hands and a curveball at the knees. Jasson Domínguez’s homer was a meatball. Center-cut 86 mph changeup? That’s a BP fastball. Wednesday was the sixth time Skubal has given up three homers in a game and the other five all came in 2021, including April 30th against the Yankees, when Clint Frazier and Aarons Hicks and Judge got him.
Domínguez’s at-bat in the sixth was very impressive. Skubal struck him out on four pitches in both of his first two at-bats, including throwing him six changeups for four whiffs. Domínguez fell behind in the count 0-2 in the sixth, including whiffing at another changeup, but worked the count full, fouled away three two-strike pitches (including a changeup), then finally got a mistake to hit. He knew he got it too.
“It’s just mental. You know, trying to stay in the game,” Domínguez told Kornacki. "He got me the first two, but I kept my mind right, helped the team and kind of battled.”
Dominguez continues to look rough in right field and it has hurt the Yankee at times, like when he bobbled a ball two innings prior to his homer. That led to the game-tying run. With Judge and Trent Grisham (and Giancarlo Stanton) out though, the Yankees don’t have a better option right now. They just have to live with it and hope Jasson makes an impact offensively, which he did Wednesday.
Good road series win against a kinda sorta surging Tigers team. As for Thursday, you can’t give a Major League team that many extra outs, even a bad one like the Red Sox. Four errors, two popups that weren’t caught (one foul, one ruled a single), and a double play that wasn’t turned. It was the first time the Yankees allowed six unearned runs in a game since April 10th, 2018, also in Fenway Park. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
The Lollipop Kid
You have to give Jazz Chisholm Jr. this: He’s never boring. Within the last week he’s had people talking about testicles and lollipops. As you no doubt know, Chisholm took the field with a lollipop in his mouth Monday night. It was a dumb but ultimately harmless act (Jazz said he usually cuts the stem off). Aaron Boone got wind of it after the game, said it “pisses me off,” then the two talked.
“I didn’t know about it during the game until after I was made aware of it,” Boone told Kornacki. “So, it just bothered me, and it was addressed. I don’t think that should be a part of what we’re doing.”
Boone and Chisholm said they will keep their conversation private, but because this is Jazz and things with him have a way of escalating, he hit the go-ahead home run Tuesday (video) and showed the lollipop container to the camera when he got back to the dugout. (During Wednesday’s YES Amazon broadcast, Meredith Marakovits said Chisholm’s teammates pushed him to show the lollipop bucket to the camera.)
“I’m playing a kids game and having fun,” Chisholm told Kornacki about the lollipop. “I don’t think it’s a bad look. It’s a safety issue.”
No, Jazz shouldn’t have taken the lollipop out to the field, and he’s definitely in the minority when he said he doesn’t think it was a bad look. It was a bad look made worse by the fact that the Yankees were losing at the time. If it was the ninth inning with the Yankees up big, then it probably slides as a Jazz being Jazz moment. With the Yankees down three in the fifth though? The reaction to the lollipop was only going one way.
Chisholm is a lightning rod and some people will flat out never like him no matter how well he plays, and the lollipop thing was red meat for those people. But this is over and done with, and a non-issue now. Boone and Jazz shared a high-five and a smile after Tuesday’s (and Wednesday’s) win, and Boone has started to jokingly call him The Lollipop Kid. Bad optics, for sure, but as things often are with Chisholm, the reaction exceeded the crime.
“Before the home run, some people right around the on-deck circle were just, ‘Sucker this, lollipop that,’ and I know he got a lot of satisfaction out of hitting that home run,” Boone told Kornacki after Tuesday’s win. “… The Lollipop Kid came through tonight in a big way. He can have all the lollipops he wants now. We’re good.”
Miscellany
The errors spared Cam Schlittler’s ERA Thursday: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HR on 92 pitches. He wasn’t just screwed by the defense though, right? Some long at-bats, hit the No. 8 hitter in an 0-2 count, leadoff walk to start the fifth. Not Schlittler sharpest outing, for sure … Ryan Weathers outpitched Skubal on Wednesday, as we all expected: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K on 97 pitches (video). Weathers got some loud outs along the way, particularly towards the end of his outing. Sometimes you need your defense to make plays behind you and they (mostly) did behind Weathers this week … Here is the regular “I was a big dumb idiot for not wanting the Yankees to re-sign Paul Goldschmidt” mea culpa. He’s up to 14 homers, four more than he hit last year in over 300 fewer plate appearances. Goldschmidt’s second homer Wednesday was the 386th of his career, moving him into 68th place all-time. Who did he break a tie with? Judge, of course … Even before Thursday’s 0-for-5 against three lefties (Connelly Early, Danny Coulombe, Aroldis Chapman), Ben Rice was hitting .227/.301/.333 (80 wRC+) against lefties since May 1st. Judge and Stanton aren’t coming back anytime soon. The Yankees need Benny Barrels to get back to his 130 wRC+ vs. LHP in April form … Shoutout to the bullpen, which threw 6.1 scoreless innings in the two wins in Detroit. Brent Headrick got five outs Tuesday, Fernando Cruz got two outs Tuesday and four outs (all strikeouts) on Wednesday, and David Bednar got a four-out save Tuesday and a three-out save Wednesday. Those three are the entirety of Boone’s Circle of Trust™ right now. Everyone else is on the outside, including Tim Hill, who has a decidedly un-Tim Hill-like 37.5 GB% in his last eight appearances … The Yankees should start playing Spencer Jones against lefties. The defense is too wonky otherwise. I know Jones can’t hit lefties, but he can’t hit righties either, and they play him against every righty. Every night they give away an out or two (or more) because two or three guys are playing out of position. You can always pinch-hit for Jones against a lefty late if the situation calls for it … The pitching staff has to chill with the leadoff baserunners. The Yankees have thrown 34 innings on the road trip and the leadoff man reached in 19 of them (.559 OBP), including seven walks (20.6 BB%). Here’s a weird thing:
OBP allowed1. Dodgers: .2812. Yankees: .2973. Brewers: .297
OBP allowed to first batter of the inning1. Dodgers: .2702. Rays: .275…11. Yankees: .304
The gap between a .297 OBP and a .304 OBP may not seem big, but we’re halfway through the season, and the Yankees are closing in on 3,000 batters faced as a team. They’ve allowed a .304 OBP to the first batter of the inning and a .292 OBP to all other batters. It’s great they’ve been able to bear down and get outs after allowing the leadoff guy to reach, but maybe make life easier on yourselves and take that .292 OBP energy into the leadoff guy?
Injury updates and roster news
Ryan McMahon (illness) was placed on the 10-day IL Wednesday with an ear/throat infection. The move was retroactive to Monday, so he’s eligible to be activated next Thursday (they expect him to miss the minimum 10 days). The Yankees are four games into an eight-game stretch in which they’ll see six lefty starters, so McMahon wasn’t gonna be in the lineup much anyway … Oswaldo Cabrera was called up to fill McMahon’s roster spot. He’s hitting .271/.330/.397 (88 wRC+) with Scranton, but it’s a .326/.376/.469 (118 wRC+) line since May 1st. Waldo’s bat picked up once he got his legs under him and further away from the injury … Trent Grisham (hamstring) is with the Yankees in Boston and will go through full baseball activities this weekend. As long as that goes well, he’ll go on a rehab assignment soon (my guess is Tuesday) … José Caballero is really beat up. He fouled pitches into both feet Tuesday, then winced and grabbed at his back/side after taking a swing Wednesday. Caballero has continued to play, but he’s hurting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a day off soon … And finally, J.C. Escarra was sent to Scranton after Thursday's game. Ali Sánchez will come off the paternity list Friday. He has to. The paternity list is three days max and it's been three days. I guess his wrist is feeling better after that hit by pitch Monday.
Up next
The midpoint of the season, somehow, already. The Yankees will play their 81st game tonight and, at worst, they will be 48-33 at the season’s midpoint. They were 47-34 through 81 games last year and 52-29 through 81 games in 2024. Here’s the weekend ahead:
Friday at Red Sox: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Payton Tolle (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday at Red Sox: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP Jake Bennett (1pm ET on ABC)
Sunday at Red Sox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Sonny Gray (7pm ET on NBC)
Monday vs. Tigers: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES)
Monday’s TBA vs. TBA matchup lines up to be Ryan Weathers vs. Casey Mize. Jack Flaherty is coming off the injured list Sunday, bumping everyone in Detroit’s rotation back a day, so we won’t get a Weathers vs. Skubal rematch. We’ll have to settle for a Schlittler vs. Skubal game on Tuesday. Fun!
2. Yankees sign Taiwanese prospect. The Yankees made their most high-profile signing of the 2026 international signing period earlier this week. They signed Taiwanese right-hander Chien-Fan Lai, 18, to what Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) reports is an $872,000 bonus. Lai is the third Taiwanese-born prospect the Yankees have signed, joining Chien-Ming Wang (2000) and Fu-Lin Kuo (2009). He's the first Asian prospect the Yankees have signed since Korean infielder Hoy-Jun Park (2014).
“The signing of Chien-Fan represents our renewed commitment to players in Taiwan, and in Asia as a whole,” international scouting director Mario Garza said in a statement. “As I have gotten to know Chien-Fan, I have seen a focused and self-assured individual with great aptitude and a desire to improve. Through a scouting lens, he has an impressive multi-pitch mix, including a heavy fastball and quality off-speed pitches with solid command. This combination of traits allows us to believe that he will acclimate himself well in our development system, maximize his on-field potential and eventually become a productive Major League pitcher.”
The Yankees called Lai the “the highest-rated Taiwanese pitcher in the 2026 class,” though I have no idea whose rankings they’re citing. Lai does not rank among MLB Pipeline’s top 50 international prospects or Baseball America’s top 100 international prospects (subs. req’d) for the 2026 signing period. Jesse Borek has the most complete scouting report I’ve been able to find (here’s video):
The 18-year-old has been clocked as high as 95 mph with his fastball but traditionally sits in the 91-94 range. His curveball is his premier secondary offering, a pitch Yankees evaluators project to be plus in time, which will pair nicely with what should be an above-average slider that dives away from right-handed batters. Lai also utilizes a changeup that has shown some promise but its present effectiveness has been inconsistent.
“We think there’s upside in the body,” Garza told Kuty (subs. req’d). “We really like the makeup. He has a starter’s profile, and that’s what attracted us to him. The more we got to know him, the more we saw him pitch, we’ve seen him compete, we’ve seen him get through tough spots. We’ve seen him have really good outings. Really just kind of grew on us.”
Lai will disappear into the farm system and we’ll see what he becomes in a few years. In the larger picture, Garza told Kuty (subs. req’d) this signing is part of a renewed effort to make inroads into Asia, and lay a foundation for the future. It’s not just Asia either. The Yankees have signed several European prospects this year:
Hungarian C Marko Morua ($500,000 bonus in February)
Dutch LHP Tijn Fredrikze ($90,000 bonus in January)
German RHP Finn Niemeyer (bonus unknown)
It’s definitely not just the usual crop of Dominican shortstops and Venezuelan catchers this signing period. The Lai signing is about getting back into Asia, a market the Yankees ignored for too long. The European kids are about getting in on the ground floor. Europe is hardly a baseball hotbed, but if/when it becomes one, the Yankees will be at the forefront. They’re expanding their reach and it is long overdue.
The Yankees cut ties with longtime international scouting director Donny Rowland (and several of his top lieutenants) in the offseason and (eventually) elevated Garza to replace him. They lost a lot of prospects because of that, including touted shortstop Wandy Asigen. Those players had deals in place with Rowland, then walked away once he was let go, and signed elsewhere. The 2026 (and also 2027, most likely) signing class is pretty thin because of it.
The international side of things had been far too unproductive for far too long though. The Yankees had to change things up there. Will this work? It’s way too early to tell. International free agency is a long haul player development thing. Getting back into Asia and dipping into Europe are things that didn’t happen under Rowland though. They’re a sign of the needed change Garza & Co. are bringing to the organization. Now it just has to work.
3. 2026 draft prospect: Missouri State OF Caden Bogenpohl. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Bogenpohl, 21, is a big dude (6-foot-6 and 245 lbs.) who slashed .293/.446/.639 (144 wRC+) with 20 homers in 2024, breaking Ryan Howard’s Missouri State freshman home run record. He similarly mashed in 2025 (.296/.449/.558 and 137 wRC+), but was not good this spring: .274/.427/.413 (111 wRC+) with only six homers. Here’s where Bogenpohl places in the most recent draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 110
ESPN: No. 76
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 78
MLB Pipeline: No. 93
Bogenpohl handled the Cape Cod League well last summer (.242/.395/.385) and stood out at the Draft Combine earlier this week. He had the two hardest hit balls recorded (119.4 mph and 115.7 mph), hit a ball off the Chase Field scoreboard in center field, and cleared the pool in right-center. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Bogenpohl offers plus-plus raw power from the left side of the plate and can crush pitches out of the park from foul pole to foul pole … He employs a disciplined approach and won't chase when pitchers refuse to challenge him, but he's also leaking open early and not doing damage on offerings on the outer half of the plate. His extra-large frame results in an extra-long stroke, too much in-zone swing-and-miss and groundball contact, as well as difficulties against non-fastballs.
Bogenpohl has surprising athleticism for his size and shows solid speed once he gets going. He has played a capable center field in college but likely is destined for an outfield corner in pro ball. After showing well-above-average arm strength in the past, his throwing grades more as average to solid now.
Tell me that doesn’t sound like a player the Yankees would target. Anyway, one of my inside baseball pals (not with the Yankees) says Bogenpohl’s numbers against fastballs are off the charts, as good as any college hitter in a long time, but breaking balls are a problem. His contact rates are in the danger zone for a hitter who didn’t play in a top conference.
Bogenpohl gives me Yankees vibes (which is why I wrote him up). This is the Aaron Judge/Spencer Jones skill set, approximately. The No. 35 pick might be too high for Bogenpohl given the contact concerns and the fact he doesn’t have Judge/Jones athleticism, but the second round (No. 63)? Sure, I could see that. The contact rates are scary, but every once in a while one of these guys turns in Judge or Nick Kurtz.
4. Rapid fire thoughts. Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and Ben Rice have advanced to Phase 2 of the All-Star Game voting. Rice is up against Vlad Guerrero Jr. at first base. Bellinger and Judge are up against Byron Buxton, Jesús Sánchez, Mike Trout, and Daulton Varsho in the outfield. Phase 2 begins Monday. I think those three plus Cam Schlittler will be the Yankees’ All-Stars (Judge won’t be able to play, obviously) … And finally, I don’t have interest in discussing every CBA proposal as it comes across because there will be plenty of time for that in the offseason. There’s actual baseball being played and I’d rather talk about that. I just wanted to note we have a CBA negotiations timeline at CBS that we update with each proposal (like the proposal MLB made Thursday) and any other important thing. You can keep tabs on everything there. Otherwise, I would say I wish we could fast forward to when CBA talks will get serious, but there’s a lot of baseball to be played between now and then, and I don’t want to miss it.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
George asks: Was always a fan of Jazz but I’m feeling much less comfortable with the Yanks signing him long term Maybe I’m nitpicking but the latest incident of sucking on a lollipop on the field just seemed undisciplined and immature. Boone should have simply told him to knock it off. Am I being too critical?
Aaron Boone didn’t know about the lollipop thing until after the game, otherwise I’m sure he would have said something to Jazz Chisholm Jr. right away. I don’t get the sense the Yankees will re-sign Jazz and it has nothing to do with the lollipop or anything like that. I think their vision is a combination of José Caballero, George Lombard Jr., and Anthony Volpe on the middle infield next year. My guess is they won’t make Chisholm the qualifying offer because the CBA is about to change, and I don’t think they’ll risk Jazz taking it and putting a $23M-ish salary on their books before they know what system will be in place next year. The Yankees did not spend a single penny before the lockout five years ago. I’m assuming they’ll act the same way this offseason until I see otherwise.
Noa asks: Read your post on Skubal today. I fully get the argument for him even though I voted no (and think they're getting outbid anyway). My logic is this team's bullpen/infield needs more help and I think Doval/Hill/Weathers would blow any lead Skubal gives them anyway. I'm down to go all in on this season though but for the bullpen. Who would you say are the bullpen high-end targets. Doesn't have to be Mason Miller but I think it would just make them more of a complete team.
I wonder about Cade Smith. The Guardians have a history of trading away key players at the deadline even while in contention*, and his arbitration number is going to be pretty big next year. There may not be any truly elite relievers available at the deadline. Cleveland could see that as an opportunity to sell super duper high on Smith, and get a very big return. I think it’s unlikely, but it's definitely not impossible.
* Counterpoint: The Guardians haven’t done this since they traded away Trevor Bauer (2019) and Mike Clevinger (2020), and those two were known clubhouse headaches.
The Brewers could trade Trevor Megill, who looks healthy again after his fastball was missing zero bats (44 straight without a whiff at one point!) and getting smacked around in April. He’ll be a free agent after next season and they traded Josh Hader at the same point in his career. Milwaukee has the depth to absorb the loss and they are always in build-for-the-future mode, even when they’re arguably the best team in the league.
There’s been a lot chatter that there could be more baseball trades between contenders this year. There just aren’t many teams willing to sell, and the teams that will sell don’t have much to offer. Adrian Morejon was mentioned in a recent mailbag. He’s a rental and the Padres need cheap/controllable everything. Morejon for Jasson Domínguez? I don’t think either team says yes, but you never know, right?
(It is really hard to bring in even below-average arms right now. Replacement level stiffs like Jayden Murray, David Peterson, and Chris Roycroft were traded for actual players this week because so many teams are trying to add bodies that even waiver bait has trade value. Murray and Roycroft were DFAed before they were traded too. Their new teams were desperate/compelled enough to make a trade to jump the waiver line.)
Eddie asks: I can't remember if it was Sherman, Buster or someone else. But a Luke Weaver trade back to the Yanks we mentioned. Luke Weaver for Luis Gil? Who says no? I think the Mets could get a better return.
After a rocky April, Weaver has settled in nicely and took a 2.18 ERA (2.74 FIP) into Thursday’s game. His strikeout (26.4%) and walk (7.0%) numbers are almost identical to last year (27.5% and 7.5%), though he hasn’t gotten back to his 2024 strikeout peak (31.1%). Weaver’s pretty much the only offseason move that has worked out for the Mets. They owe him $11M next year, which is pricey, but not outrageous.
The Mets definitely say no to Gil for Weaver. Gil has basically zero value at this point. He’s injured and he hasn’t been an effective pitcher in over a year now. The market is starved for good relievers and, even at that 2027 salary number, Weaver would be one of the best available. On the Yankees’ end, there were no hard feelings when they let Weaver walk. It was just business. I don’t think they’d take him back at $11M next year given the CBA uncertainty. Then again, he’d fit into the Run It Back philosophy, so who knows?
(Weaver’s fastball whiff rate has slipped from 30.0% in 2024 to 24.5% in 2025 to 22.1% in 2026. That’s the slip from elite to average and not really what the Yankees need. They need more velocity and fastball swing-and-miss ability. Weaver is another “please chase my splitter/changeup” type like Fernando Cruz and David Bednar.)
Mike asks: If the Mets sell, is there an argument to acquire Bichette and what would be the cost?
You are forgiven if you stopped paying attention to the Mets a few weeks ago, but Bo Bichette is hitting .269/.315/.437 (110 wRC+) since May 1st and .349/.363/.616 (169 wRC+) since June 1st, and that’s more or less the hitter Bo Bichette has been most of his career. If he continues on that 110 wRC+ pace the rest of the season, I think he’ll opt out? Here is his contract:
2026: $2M salary plus $40M signing bonus
2027: $42M salary ($5M buyout if he opts out)
2028: $42M salary ($5M if he opts out)
The buyout makes the opt out a $37M decision, which is still pretty hefty. He doesn’t have to beat that in 2027 though. He just has to beat that over however many years to come out ahead. I’m not sure I’d opt out if I were him given the CBA uncertainty and how his free agency went last offseason, when he was coming off a great year, but maybe he will. (If he continues at the 169 wRC+ pace, he’ll definitely opt out.)
The good version of Bichette is the kinda hitter the Yankees need. A righty bat with contact skills and also extra-base ability. They’ve had a few contact guys in recent years who lacked power (Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Alex Verdugo, etc.). The best hitters/teams have both and Bichette for most of his career has had both. He’ll play the entire season at 28. This isn’t an over-the-hill player. He’s in what should be his prime.
If the Mets trade Bichette, it will be for one of two reasons. Either they don’t expect him to opt out and want to dump him so they’re not stuck with him, or they expect him to opt out and want to get something in return while they can. The trade deadline is five weeks away, giving us more time to see what Bichette’s season looks like. I feel like we need it. He’s trending up but still has been really bad overall.
I was pro-Bichette in the offseason, when I was wrong about almost everything the Yankees did or weren’t willing to do. I know I’m a broken record with this, but I don’t think the Yankees would risk Bichette taking the $42M next year (and the year after) given the CBA uncertainty. If it were a slam dunk he’d opt out, then yeah, I could see it. There’s enough uncertainty that I don’t think they’ll entertain it much.
To answer the question though, yes, there is an argument to be make the Yankees should get Bichette. The trade cost should be low because I don’t think there will be much competition for him at all, and they need a middle of the lineup righty bat. Bichette is still gonna wind up at +2 WAR this year and maybe +3 WAR. Where are the Yankees getting a +2 WAR infielder this offseason? The opt out is risky, but what if Bichette hits and turns into a rental? That’s a possible outcome too, and a really great one.
Max asks: Cubs need pitching and Matt Shaw is positionally blocked by Bregman. Thoughts on a hypothetical trade involving a back-end starter with years of team control (e.g., Weather, Warren, ERC)?
The Cubs have played Shaw at every position except shortstop and catcher this year. He’s played mostly right field and it seems like the Cubs are penciling him into an outfield spot next year with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki set to become free agents. There’s no room for him on the infield but there is plenty of room in the outfield. Shaw’s a super utility guy this year and it looks like he’ll be a full-time outfielder next year.
Now 24, Shaw didn’t hit much as a rookie last year (93 wRC+) and this year’s .246/.309/.421 (103 wRC+) line is split into a 134 wRC+ in April and a 63 wRC+ in May/June. There have been questions about his long-term offensive impact since his college days at Maryland, and those questions still exist. Shaw is a very good defender (on the infield, at least), but the under-the-hood offensive numbers are quite poor.
The Cubbies desperately need pitching, both right now (they traded for David Peterson for cryin’ out loud) and in the future. Shaw is under team control through 2031 and I don’t think the Cubs would hesitate to trade him for Will Warren, who is under team control through 2030. They might balk at Shaw for Ryan Weathers, who is only under team control through 2028. (Elmer Rodríguez? Maybe the Cubs take him.)
I’m not a Shaw guy. I don’t believe in the bat much and the Yankees already have enough glove-first infielders who belong in the 8-9 lineup spots. (I have George Lombard Jr. in that bucket too, at least early in his MLB career, before he settles in as a hitter.) I’m not opposed to trading Warren or Weathers (or Rodríguez). I’m just not trading them for Shaw, who projects to be a lower impact player even at his peak.
Scott asks: Your post last week about selling high on Cam got me thinking what other options are out there. I know my trade proposal sucks, but I thought I saw rumblings about the type of package the Royals could get for Bobby Witt. Is there a world where a Cam, Lombard, Lagrange, Kilby package can be moved for Bobby Witt Jr?
In terms of trade value, Witt is probably the single most valuable player in baseball. He just turned 26, he’s a legitimate +8 WAR player, and he’s signed affordably through 2030. The FanGraphs folks had Shohei Ohtani at No. 1 in their Trade Value Series last summer because he’s a unicorn player with unmatched revenue-generating value to his team. Witt was No. 2 ahead of Paul Skenes and Corbin Carroll. If Witt is lower than No. 2 when they run the Trade Value Series this year. I will be shocked.
Few players are truly untouchable but I would venture a guess that Witt is untouchable. There is almost no package any team could put together that would get the Royals to say yes. Hypothetically, I would trade Cam Schlittler as the headliner in a Witt package in a heartbeat. The package Scott proposed (Schlittler, Carlos Lagrange, George Lombard Jr., Dax Kilby) is an easy yes for me. I would think seriously about a Schlittler plus Ben Rice package for Witt. I think the Yankees would too.
Baseball-wise, something like Skenes and Konnor Griffin, or Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang, would get the Royals to say yes to a Witt trade, but neither the Pirates nor the Brewers would do that. Witt is a true franchise player who means a lot to the Royals on and off the field. Even if you could justify a trade in baseball terms, it would be a very hard sell to the fan base. I think Witt’s completely untouchable.
Daniel asks: Garrett Martin — just a guy too old for his level, or a GUY?
Not a GUY. Just, like, a guy. Martin, 26 this weekend, was an undrafted free agent signing in July 2022. He was promoted to Scranton earlier this week. Before that, he hit .270/.344/.568 (137 wRC+) with 21 homers in 63 games with Somerset while repeating the level. Martin is 8-for-22 (.364) with three homers in five games for Scranton. His 24 homers were third most in the minors entering Thursday.
Martin made Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet (subs. req’d) earlier this week, so you don’t have to take my word for anything. Here’s their write-up:
(Martin) has real power, but he also has some flaws that could keep him from a lengthy big league career. When he makes contact, he hits screaming fly balls and line drives, but he only makes contact two out of every three swings, and he can be beaten in the zone by quality stuff. It’s a power-oriented profile, but thankfully for Martin, he’s producing the power needed to make that approach work.
Martin is a right-hander hitter who fits into an outfield corner long-term. Contact issues, short side of the platoon, not enough defense or baserunning to prop it up. His power will have to play to make it work. The upside looks like what, Jonny Gomes? Gomes hit .246/.336/.459 (111 wRC+) with 27.0 K% as a half-time player during his peak from 2005-12. He retired with +7.4 WAR in over 1,200 games, which ain’t nothing.
The Yankees could use a righty hitting platoon outfielder with power. I think Martin’s just an up/down guy for them, and if another team loves him and will take him as the second piece in a deadline trade, I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to include him. Martin’s a fringe prospect more than a standout, albeit one having a very nice year. Perhaps that can be useful to the Yankees at the deadline.
Jackson asks: I'm a casual follower of the Yankees lower minor league system. In the past they have almost never had hitting prospects put up eye popping numbers. However, this year they have probably about a dozen hitting prospects that are hitting crazy, crazy OPS numbers (.900 to 1.300), I.e., Judge-like numbers. You mentioned Wilberson dePena the other day, but there are lots more others at the DSL, FCL and low A leagues. I know the sample size might be small in some cases, and many will flame out eventually but what happened? Was Rowland responsible for this? I'm talking about guys like Puello, Marinez, Matic, Montero(Hans), Done, Peralta, Castro, etc. etc. etc. Besides dePena, who else might be real?
Prompted by a recent 29-2 game in the Arizona Complex League, Jake Mintz wrote a great piece about the state of rookie ball (Arizona/Florida Complex League and Dominican Summer League). The full piece is worth a read. The short version is teams are running out of pitchers (some ACL/FCL and DSL games get called early because of a lack of pitchers) and the chase for velocity comes with a cost in control.
The DSL Yankees scored 11 runs on eight hits, three walks, three errors, and a hit batter in the first inning Thursday (box score). Going into Thursday, they were hitting .320/.462/.564 as a team through 17 games. The DSL average is a .259/.402/.385 line with 19.7 K% and 16.7 BB%. That’s a 51-team league* with a .402 OBP! (The FCL Yankees are hitting .283/.391/.497 in a league with a .251/.378/.400 average.)
* The Yankees have a second DSL team, the DSL Bombers, that is hitting a more normal .252/.412/.383. Normal for the DSL, I mean.
You can not take rookie ball stats at face value. The competition varies so much from inning to inning, nevermind game to game. It’s like Spring Training, only with players still learning how to play baseball. The further away you get from MLB, the less the stats matter, and that has never been more true than it is right now, in the current minor league environment. Rookie ball stats are almost meaningless.
I wrote about Wilberson De Pena, the prospect the Yankees got in the Oswald Peraza trade, in a recent mailbag. Here’s what I know about the other prospects Jackson mentioned, in alphabetical order.
IF Leni Done: Done, an older international signing last year, is beating up on younger competition in the FCL this year. Granted, we’re talking about a 19-year-old vs. 17-18 year olds, but it’s not an insignificant difference at that level. Done is a bat-first prospect hitting .321/.419/.514 (127 wRC+). We’ll need to see him in Low-A to get a read on him. The playing field will be more level there.
SS Stiven Marinez: My No. 22 prospect is hitting .328/.463/.688 (157 wRC+) as a DSL repeater. He’s 18 and rail thin, and needs to get stronger. The fact he already has four homers this year after hitting one last year is a good sign, but again, don’t make too much of it. Word is Marinez is taking the steps you want to see from a touted international free agent in Year 2 in the DSL.
1B/3B Richard Matic: My No. 21 prospect is hitting .324/.443/.503 (136 wRC+) in the FCL after spending the last two years in the DSL. He's played mostly third base this year but also some first base just to give Done time at the hot corner. Supposedly Matic has been very impressive this year and is poised to climb up prospect rankings.
IF Hans Montero: Montero is one of several recent big money misses under former international scouting direction Donny Rowland. The Yankees gave him $1.7M in January 2021 and he’s now 22 years old in his third straight year with Low-A Tampa, where he’s hitting .247/.371/.461 (123 wRC+) with 27.7 K%. I never heard anything that made me consider ranking him among my Top 30 Prospects at any point. He’s a non-prospect.
SS Dexters Peralta: Peralta, 19, got hyped to high heaven after the Yankees signed him in January 2024, so much so that I made him one of my Not Top 30 Prospects a month later. Two strikeout-filled years later, Peralta is hitting .252/.381/.567 (121 wRC+) with 33.5 K% as a FCL repeater this season. He’s Roderick Arias (i.e. super athletic and tooled up) with more swing and miss somehow, so, yeah.
I don’t have any info about OF Jose Castro or C/1B/OF Luis Puello. Sorry. Puello had a three-homer game last week though (video). That’s cool. I usually don’t start annoying my inside baseball pals for info about rookie ball kids until the offseason, so this is all I have right now. Long story short, don’t fall in love with FCL and DSL slash lines. They are full of lies. (The same goes for pitcher ERA and FIP.)
Pedro asks: At some point this season, it is very possible that we have a moment in a game, probably in September, where: Judge is in right, Jones is in center, Volpe and Lombard Jr. are in the infield, Wells is behind the plate, and Schmidt is on the mound. That makes 6/9 players on the field Yankees first-round picks. Has that ever happened before? Either with the Yankees or any other team? Not sure if this is something you can even look up, but it had me thinking about how cool that could be.
Aaron Judge was technically a supplemental first round pick, not a true first round pick, but everyone considers supplemental picks first rounders, so let’s stick with that. Twice this year the Yankees had four first rounders in the starting lineup together: Judge, Spencer Jones, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells on May 15th and May 19th. Alas, Gerrit Cole started neither game. That would have technically made it five Yankees’ first round picks on the field together, though the Yankees were unable to sign Cole as their 2008 first rounder.
I don’t know an easy way to look this up, so I just eyeballed the list of Yankees’ first round picks. I found a few games in 1971 and 1972 with three first rounders. Here are the latest games in those seasons with those players, and their draft years:
June 29th, 1971: Jim Lyttle (1966), Ron Blomberg (1967), Thurman Munson (1968)
Sept. 24th, 1972: Blomberg, Munson, Charlie Spikes (1968)
If there are any other days with four first rounders hiding away, they were during the Blomberg/Munson era in the early 1970s. Not many Yankees first rounders from the late 1970s through the mid-2000s actually played for the Yankees because of trades, busts, and forfeiting picks to sign free agents. (The Yankees made only two first round picks from 1979-89 because of free agent compensation.)
I feel pretty confident saying the Yankees have never had six of their own first round picks on the field at the same time, which could happen this year. (Could happen in the sense that they have the personnel to do it, not that it’s likely to happen.) I have no idea what the MLB record for first rounders on the field together is, nor do I know how to look it up. I can’t imagine many teams have done six, if any.
Gerry asks: Do you know who Boone signals to in the stands, at home and on the road, after every game?
It’s his family at home, I know that much. It’s probably his family on the road too? I don’t know if Aaron Boone drags the entire clan to every road game, but it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for a coach to bring his wife or a kid(s) on a road trip for a little family time, especially during the summer when school’s out.
Brian asks: Was it ever reported why the Yankees changed weekend start times from 1 to 1:30? I realize it’s a small change but after 30+ years of being conditioned for 1pm starts it’s annoying!
The players asked for the later start times, per Bob Klapisch. “It’s a 100% improvement. For some guys, the extra sleep in their prep. For other guys, they use time here getting treatment. I like it. The extra half hour feels like an hour,” Giancarlo Stanton said. Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and others said they liked it too, so the Yankees changed it. (This isn’t something that needs MLB’s approval. They can just do it.)
Is the extra half-hour translating to improved performance? I’m not gonna go through and separate out games by start time, so here are the overall day game numbers:
That includes all day games. Home, road, 1pm, 1:30pm, weekday, weekend, whatever. I would not read anything into those numbers and what they could possibly tell us about the impact of the slightly later start time for home weekend games. I’m just sharing them because I have them in front of me. If the players think the extra half-hour helps, great.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)