Reminder: Phase 2 of the All-Star Game voting is underway. It closes Thursday. Here’s the ballot. Ben Rice is up against Vlad Guerrero Jr. at first base, and Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge are up against Byron Buxton, Jesús Sánchez, Mike Trout, and Daulton Varsho in the outfield. Judge is a seven-time All-Star and was voted in as a starter all seven times. Even in 2023, he was voted in as a starter despite running through the Dodger Stadium wall on June 3rd. If Judge gets voted in as a starter again, he gets replaced in the lineup by whoever’s next in the voting. Let’s now get into today’s post.
1. Weekend thoughts. The annual Summer Swoon has arrived. The Yankees are without three of their five best hitters and arguably their best starter, so the injury excuse applies, but they keep talking about how much they like their depth, right? The depth has to start performing. The Yankees got swept in four games by one of the worst teams in the AL over the weekend and have lost five straight, and eight of their last 10 games.
"That's what we do, baby. You've gotta love this stuff. You've gotta eat this stuff up. It's a sickness. That's what the grind is,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips after Sunday’s loss. "We got a really good freaking team. We played crappy on this trip, kinda. It feels bad, kind of pissed off, right? But it's what we do. It's what you sign up for. We'll dig ourselves out of it and get it going here in short order, but the bottom line is we didn't play well this weekend, and we gotta do better."
The Red Sox went into the weekend with 12 wins at Fenway Park all season. They were 12-25 at home before the Yankees showed up Thursday, and they hadn’t won more than three straight games all year either. The Red Sox started rookie lefties Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and I’m not sure there was a single stressful inning between them. The Yankees had the lead for 3.5 innings in the four games.
Last week we talked about the Yankees not hitting with RISP. Now they’re not hitting period. They were no-hit into the sixth inning Friday, the fifth inning Saturday, and the eighth inning Sunday. To score four runs Sunday, the Yankees needed the extra-inning automatic runner and worst defensive game of Wilyer Abreu’s season. I mean, they scored nine runs in four games in FENWAY PARK.
Monday against the Tigers was no better. The Yankees managed a hit in the third inning, so there was no no-hitter stress, but they had just two more hits the rest of the night, and they didn’t come until the game was out of hand in the eighth inning. Did the Yankees at least make Casey Mize work? Nope! He threw 88 pitches in seven easy innings. The Tigers were 12-28 on the road going into Monday's game, by the way.
The 2026 Yankees are the fourth team in baseball history with three or fewer hits in four consecutive games. The 2010 Nationals did it, the 2003 Tigers did it, and the 1909 Cleveland Naps did it. Those three teams went a combined 183-294-1, which is a 62-win pace. On top of that, the Yankees have struck out 10 times in nine of their last 14 games. Just a miserable, unwatchable brand of baseball.
Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice are slumping hard and the Yankees don’t have the lineup depth right now to overcome it. (José Caballero as a pesky No. 8-9 hitter? Great! José Caballero as a run-producing No. 5-6 hitter? Awful.) Rice is a mess. His at-bat quality is so bad. He’s swinging at everything …
… and rolling over on everything. At one point in Boston he had a nine at-bat stretch that went ground out to second, ground out to first, ground out to the pitcher, ground out to the pitcher, ground out to second, ground out to second, ground out to first, ground out to second (GIDP), strikeout chasing three pitches out of the zone. Rice has 13 strikeouts and one walk in his last 12 games.
You can see in his body language that Rice is pressing. His whole thing is excellent swing decisions and, thanks to the strength he added two offseasons ago, elite exit velocity. The swing decisions have gone in the tank. He’s human. Rice knows the Yankees have a lot of offense on the shelf and that he needs to be The Man right now, and he’s trying to hit a five-run home run every at-bat. He’s in a bad place.
As for Bellinger, his home/road splits have gone from comical to get it the hell together, Cody. We’re more than halfway through the season now. Going into Monday, there were 85 players with at least 150 plate appearances at home and on the road. Look at this:
Home wRC+1. Yordan Alvarez: 2082. Cody Bellinger: 2073. Yandy Díaz: 2074. Junior Caminero: 1975. Kyle Schwarber: 195
Road wRC+85. Salvador Perez: 3984. Alec Bohm: 5083. Trea Turner: 5782. Jarren Duran: 6181. Cody Bellinger: 64
Home minus road wRC+1. Cody Bellinger: 1432. Junior Caminero: 893. Yandy Díaz: 844. Tyler Soderstrom: 825. Matt Chapman: 80
Bellinger is an MVP candidate at Yankee Stadium and a Quad-A hitter everywhere else. He had a big home/road split last year (152 wRC+ vs. 97 wRC+) and you’d expect him to given his swing and the way he pulls the ball in the air. His ability to abuse the short porch is part of his appeal. But come on man. Can Bellinger be at least average on a road? Please? He’s a zero away from the Bronx this year.
In the 15 games since Trent Grisham joined Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, Bellinger and Rice are a combined 24-for-122 (.197) with seven extra-base hits. Add that to the sloppy defense – Ryan McMahon is a terrible hitter and yet the Yankees desperately need him back for his glove alone* – and the rotation hiccups, and you get eight losses in 10 games. Bad times, these are.
* Three different baseman has made a crucial error in the last five games. It was Amed Rosario on Friday, Oswaldo Cabrera on Sunday, and Caballero on Monday.
Obvious statement is obvious: The Yankees badly miss Judge and Stanton (and Grisham), who are both still several weeks away. I know they have other needs, but I gotta tell you, I’m on the “pay the price and trade for Taylor Ward now*, then figure out how the pieces fit later because you can’t just wait around for Judge/Stanton and expect a Wild Card Series bye” train. The lineup is three bats short right now.
* Think Edwin Encarnación in 2019. The Yankees traded for him on June 19th when Judge and Stanton were on the injured list and they had Luke Voit at first base. Encarnacion was a salary dump for Seattle whereas Ward will require giving up actual prospects, but the point is the Yankees didn’t wait until the deadline to get a bat, and didn’t stress out about how the pieces would fit when at full strength.
You can only expect so much from the kids and the journeymen currently populating the bottom half of the lineup. Either Bellinger and Rice and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hit and the Yankees will have a chance, or they don’t and they won’t. Those three (and Paul Goldschmidt) are driving the bus right now. Grisham will be back soon. McMahon too. They’ll help. This is who the Yankees will be for another few weeks.
The Yankees are a really good team that will be fine in the long run. It’s ugly right now, believe me I know, but, as Boone said, "That's what we do, baby.” The Yankees have this miserable rut every summer (they've had a losing record in June three times in the last four years and they haven’t had a winning record in July since 2021) and then eventually they turn it around. What happens every year is happening this year. This is nothing we haven’t seen before.
Maybe this year will be different and the rut won’t last very long, or the Yankees won’t turn it around. This is Yankees baseball in the 2020s though. They do this every summer and history says we’re gonna have to sit through another 5-6 weeks of this. Possibly more given who’s on the shelf. The annual Summer Swoon is never short. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Cole’s bad June
By ERA, June was the second worst month of Gerrit Cole’s career. The Red Sox hit Cole around Saturday (5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR on 89 pitches) and he’s given up seven home runs in his last 24 innings. That includes homers by the generally powerless Anthony Seigler and Masataka Yoshida on Saturday. Here are Cole’s worst months (min. four starts):
1. June 2017: 6.17 ERA2. June 2026: 6.12 ERA3. August 2016: 6.08 ERA4. Sept. 2017: 5.50 ERA5. May 2023: 5.18 ERA
Three of the four worst months came when Cole was a young pitcher still learning his way with the Pirates, and his fifth worst month came during his Cy Young season. Go figure. Cole did finish Saturday’s start well, retiring nine of the final 11 batters faced (five strikeouts), but it was too late to matter. The Red Sox put four runs on the board 13 batters into the game. Cole has a 4.06 ERA (4.59 FIP) in seven starts.
“I was encouraged by the way we finished. Unfortunately, it was too much to overcome today, which is disappointing,” Cole told Phillips. “… I just tried to free myself up, to be honest. The command just sometimes isn’t there. I just tried to be more aggressive and not care as much about where the pitch was going, or not really try to define the pitch too much by jamming it into one area, and just, just attack.”
Cole’s four-seamer has gotten hit hard lately. Both homers Saturday came on four-seamers and hitters have a .500 SLG (.410 xSLG) with a below-average 18.1% whiff rate against the pitch. Look at where he’s locating it, and it’s lower in the zone than it has been in the past. That finish at the top of the zone, where the whiffs are and what sets up his breaking balls, hasn’t been there in Year 1 with the new UCL:
Cole’s arm angle is down (41-43 degrees from 2021-24 to 37 degrees in 2026), which Lance Brozdowski, who knows way more about this stuff than I do, says is common in the first year back from Tommy John. Sandy Alcantara had a similar issue last year. His arm angle was down a bit and he couldn’t elevate his heater. Alcantara’s arm angle/fastball location has been better this year, though he hasn't been able to get back to vintage Sandy.
Elbow reconstruction and age (36 in a few weeks) are a double whammy. I’m encouraged Cole is hitting 99 mph regularly and snapping good breaking balls and changeups. He has the weapons to get outs. The fastball command in particular has not been good and that’s often how it goes after Tommy John surgery. It can take a while to come back too. There’s no guarantee it returns this season (or ever).
Cole was so good and so sharp in his first two starts back that it was easy to dream about him being an instant ace like Justin Verlander a few years ago. I know I fell for it. New UCLs usually come with bumps in the road though and Cole is going through them. It sucks they’re happening while Max Fried is on the shelf and Will Warren and Ryan Weathers are pitching like No. 5s, but this is what it is.
“There’s going to be little things you slowly start to unlock and start to feel like yourself again,” Austin Wells told Bryan Hoch. “He freed himself up from trying to be too perfect in the first couple of innings. He’s been carrying that for a little bit. He was able to break free from that in the last couple of innings. Just go out there and pitch and not worry too much about the results.”
Where have the GIDPs gone?
Sunday night the Yankees turned their first double play (their first two double plays) since all the way back on June 17th. That was the middle game of the White Sox series. The recent drought was the 11th 10-game GIDP-less streak since the Highlanders became the Yankees in 1913, and also the third in the last four years. I might as well just post the list since I have it in front of me:
Three 10-game GIDP-less streaks in the century from 1922-2022, and now three in the last four years. Go figure. Going into Monday, the Yankees had turned 49 GIDPs this season, the eighth fewest in baseball. On top of everything else going wrong right now, the Yankees aren’t converting double plays. Too often we see that runner just beating out the throw to first base.
I’m gonna dig into this two ways. First is GIDPs per GIDP opportunity, with a GIDP opportunity defined as runner on first with zero or one out. Here’s the leaderboard going into Monday:
1. Cardinals: 11.2%2. Royals: 11.1%3. Giants: 10.8%…MLB average: 8.9%…15. Yankees: 8.7%
Exactly middle of the pack and almost exactly league average. Give the Yankees a league average rate and they would have turned 50 GIDPs this year, not 49. League average isn't great but it's not the end of the world. Based on this, you'd think the Yankees were doing an okay job turning double plays, and this isn't anything to worry about.
The second way we can look at this is GIDPs per GIDP opportunity with a GIDP opportunity defined as a runner on first with zero or one out and a ground ball is hit to an infielder. Here’s that leaderboard going into Monday:
1. Brewers: 58.0%2. Astros: 56.1%3. Royals: 54.1%…MLB average: 48.7%…29. Yankees: 40.5%30. Phillies: 32.8%
Jesus, Phillies. But yeah, your eyes are not deceiving you. The Yankees are one of the worst teams in the league at turning double plays when they have a potential double play ground ball hit to an infielder. Give them a league average rate, and they would have turned 59 double plays, not 49. They have the second highest ground ball rate in baseball (45.3%). There are plenty of chances to turn two, but nope.
The Yankees were at 43.9% in April, then they dipped to 38.5% in May and 39.3% in June. They were better in June than May, yeah, but not by much, and still well below average overall. Breaking this down by fielder is beyond my data sorting capabilities. It’s cool to bash Anthony Volpe, but it’s not like José Caballero has a great arm (29th percentile). I don’t think the team’s lack of GIDPs boils down to the shortstop’s arm.
I think part of it, maybe even a very large part of it, is how much soft contact the Yankees generate. They build their staff around it. They lead baseball with a 6.3% barrel rate allowed, well below the 8.0% league average. Their average exit velocity allowed on ground balls was 84.7 mph going into Monday. The MLB average was 86.1 mph. Some of these would-be GIDP balls are simply hit too slow to turn two.
We can probably chalk the relative lack of GIDPs up to several things. A propensity for slow grounders. Shortstops with below-average arms. Infielders who sometimes play too casually. Positioning. Random variance (speedy baserunners, etc.). The numbers don’t lie though. When the Yankees get a ground ball in a GIDP situation, only the Phillies turn it into a GIDP less often. It ain’t great.
Miscellany
Ultimately, the Yankees had a two-run lead with either their best or second best reliever on the mound Sunday, and Fernando Cruz gave it up. Cruz left some splitters up and that was that. I did get a kick out of Boone using a five-man infield though. I get it with the winning run on third, but Cruz has a 30.8 GB% lol. If you’re going with a five-man infield, you might as well sell out and walk the bases loaded to create a force at home, and bring in Tim Hill for a ground ball … Will Warren was just terrible Friday: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR on 90 pitches. The Red Sox went 3-for-6 with a double, a homer, two walks, and a sac fly in two-strike counts. Warren couldn’t finish at-bats and limit the damage. At least he didn’t burn out the bullpen, I guess … Ryan Weathers made Warren look like Cy Young: 1.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K on 55 pitches Monday. The Tigers were 3-for-9 with a double and a sac fly in two-strike counts. Like Warren, there were chances to limit the damage, but Weathers couldn’t do it. The rotation's numbers:
April: 2.78 ERA (3.23 FIP) and 24.9 K%
May: 3.25 ERA (3.53 FIP) and 23.8 K%
June: 4.42 ERA (4.28 FIP) and 23.2 K%
Rotation downturn + injuries on offense + sloppy defense = Summer Swoon … Austin Wells is 2-for-23 (.087) with zero walks and seven strikeouts since coming off the injured list and his contact quality is actually worse (.199 xwOBA) than it was before the injury (.301 xwOBA), albeit in a tiny sample. Boone and Wells have talked about how much better he feels at the plate and stuff like that, but come on. Give me a break. He’s hitting .155/.255/.238 (40 wRC+) on the eve of July. You’re the New York Yankees. Have some standards and send him down … And finally, the benches-clearing thing Friday was so stupid. That’s what Willson Contreras does though. He barks at pitchers who come inside, and sometimes it escalates. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and Trent Grisham?) went out when the benches cleared and that’s a no-no. Rule 5.10(k) says players on the injured list can’t go on the field during a game. It wasn’t an actual brawl, just a bunch of standing around, so my guess is they were fined. If MLB suspends them, you can add that to everything else this team is dealing with right now (the suspension wouldn't start until after they’re activated off the injured list).
Injury updates and roster news
Aaron Judge (rib) is not ready for imaging yet. They said he’ll go for scans in 4-6 weeks to check on the healing and this is Week 4, but it doesn’t sound like it will happen this week. So, we wait … Max Fried (elbow) will throw two innings and 30 or so pitches in live BP today. Giancarlo Stanton (calf) will be among those he faces. Stanton is not running yet. He hit for several weeks before he started running last time. I assume he’s still a ways away … Clarke Schmidt (elbow) will face hitters in live BP for the first time Wednesday. I don’t know what the plan is as far as bringing him back as a starter or a reliever. He’s got a bunch of live BPs ahead of him before the Yankees have to make a decision … Jazz Chisholm Jr. was in concussion protocol after running into Jasson Domínguez last night (it looked like Domínguez didn’t call him off). Boone didn't have an update after the game. We should learn more today. If Jazz has to go on the injured list, that would be five of the nine players in the Opening Day lineup on the shelf (10 if you count Fried) … David Bednar was placed on the paternity list Monday and Jake Bird was called up to replace him. Bednar was unlikely to be available Monday anyway after throwing two innings Sunday, so the timing worked out (not that the Yankees needed him Monday) … Yerry De Los Santos was sent down after Monday's game, so a fresh arm is coming up. Adam Kloffenstein is lined up to start Tuesday for Scranton and can give length. The Yankees would have to open a 40-man roster spot for him, but that’s no big deal (Stanton can go on the 60-day IL). Kervin Castro, Angel Chivilli, and Yovanny Cruz are other possibilities … The plan for Trent Grisham (hamstring) is to play at least one rehab game this week and be activated at some point during the homestand. With the off-day coming Thursday, my guess is Grisham will play rehab games Tuesday and Wednesday, rest Thursday, then rejoin the Yankees on Friday. Maybe they’ll bring him back Wednesday and squeeze that extra game in though … Ryan McMahon (illness) is doing well and going through baseball activities. He’ll come off the injured list when eligible Friday (he’s eligible to be activated Thursday, but it’s an off-day), so the Yankees are getting him and Grisham back in a few days. Oswaldo Cabrera will go down for sure. I don’t think Max Schuemann will be the other move, which means it’s either Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones. I don’t enjoy watching Jones and his 41.6 K% and 41.4% whiff rate even a tiny little bit, so I kinda hope it’s him, strictly for viewing purposes. (Yes, I know he had two hits Monday.)
Up next
The rest of the Tigers series and then the off-day the Yankees so desperately need. They’re playing poorly and they look gassed. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:
Tuesday vs. Tigers: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (7pm ET on Amazon, TBS)
Wednesday vs. Tigers: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Troy Melton (1:30pm ET on YES)
Thursday: off-day
Fun pitching matchup Tuesday. It would be even more fun if those two become teammates later this year (a man can dream). On the other side of the off-day is a three-game home series with the Twins. If the Yankees don’t right themselves against the Twins at Yankee Stadium, then it’ll really be time to worry.
2. Prospect thoughts. Greg Johnson wrote a good piece recently on OF Nick Torres, who signed a minor league deal in the offseason. Torres, 32, is the reigning Mexican League MVP. He’s hitting .256/.336/.331 (86 wRC+) around an appendectomy with Double-A Somerset. Torres said he took a pay cut to come back stateside, but he wanted to give affiliated ball another try. (He’s a former Padres' draft pick and minor leaguer.)
“I was definitely more financially taken care of in Mexico, but 20 years down the road, am I going to be able to look back and know that I took every chance that I had, or am I going to look back with regret?” Torres told Johnson. “I would rather look back and know that, hey, you know what, whether it works out or it doesn’t, I took the opportunity that I had, and I’m going to sleep well at night knowing that.”
Torres went 14-for-30 (.467) with two doubles and a homer in eight games before the appendectomy. It’s been tough sledding since he returned last month. Hopefully he settles in soon and performs the rest of the season and gets himself to Scranton, and on the radar for another contract next year. Easy to root for the guy. Here now are a few prospect notes.
Lalane is back
LHP Henry Lalane, my No. 19 prospect this year and a top 10 prospect in the past, looks like he’s back to where he was a few years ago, before his shoulder began to act up and he needed surgery. Lalane was dominant Friday: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K on 87 pitches (video). 20 whiffs on 36 swings (56%). He owns a 1.27 ERA (2.23 FIP) with 50 strikeouts and 10 walks in his six starts and 35.1 innings.
The recent results are obviously excellent. More important than the results is Lalane’s stuff, which is on the upswing and on par with what he showed before shoulder surgery, when he was one of the most exciting arms in the system. After working in the 91-93 mph range earlier this year, Lalane lived at 95 mph Friday (98.4 mph max) and threw his three fastest pitches ever recorded by Statcast. Line go up:
Lalane’s sweeper and changeup velocity ticked up along with the fastball and the movement profiles are in the desired ranges. It appears the Yankees have put his curveball on the shelf, which makes sense. It was always his fourth best pitch. At his pre-surgery best, Lalane was a 6-foot-7 fastball/changeup monster with a good third pitch sweeper, and we’re starting to see that guy again these last few weeks. Hooray.
We don’t know Lalane’s exact injury (labrum? rotator cuff? capsule?) but shoulder surgery is always nasty business, and it can take guys a long time to recover. Surgery is always a last resort. Lalane tried to rehab the injury in 2024, it didn’t work, then he had surgery after the season. He’s 18-20 months outs now, give or take, and he’s starting to look like he did when he was healthy. That’s the way it goes with shoulders.
Lalane turned 22 last month but is a young 22 in pitcher years. He has 198.1 career innings under his belt and 55.1 of them have come this year. Those 55.1 innings are a career high too. His previous career high was 48.1 innings in 2022. My guess is Lalane will move up to High-A Hudson Valley soon. Regardless of level, the Yankees will be cautious with him the rest of the way given his injury history. I don't think you'll see him finish with 120-130 innings.
Lalane will be Rule 5 Draft eligible (again) this winter and if he continues to look like this through the end of the season (mid-90s, two swing-and-miss secondaries, good control), he’s going on the 40-man roster come November. It would be a development stash, not a “he’s ready to help us in 2027” move, but you can’t leave him unprotected again. Either way, Lalane is back, and it’s a very exciting development.
Hurd’s new-look arsenal
Because of Tommy John surgery, 2024 third rounder RHP Thatcher Hurd did not make his pro debut until last month, and it looks like he's worth the wait. Hurd’s numbers (4.15 ERA and 4.69 FIP) are skewed by one disastrous seven-out, 10-run start a few weeks ago, but he’s running at 32.3 K% through 30.1 innings and went 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K on 77 pitches (video) last time out.
Based on the pitch data during his five starts with Low-A Tampa (small sample, I know), the Yankees used Hurd’s Tommy John rehab to rework his arsenal. No time is wasted in this game. All those lonely throwing sessions are a chance to try different grips. At LSU, Hurd was mid-to-upper-90s with his four-seamer and had both a slider and a curveball. His changeup and cutter lagged as fourth and fifth pitches.
Hurd’s velocity is ticking up as he builds up (93.6 mph average and 95.7 mph max last start) and he’s still using the hammer curveball he showed at LSU, but the slider has been put on the shelf and the cutter is now Hurd’s third pitch. (He’s thrown some sliders, but only 1.5%.) The Stuff+ models like it all:
I figured the Yankees would give Hurd a sweeper because that’s what they do, but during my research for my Top 30 Prospects, someone smarter than me told me Hurd doesn’t have the arm slot for a sweeper. It’s a traditional slider/cutter slot and the Yankees had him focus on the cutter. Right now, it’s averaging 88 mph and has topped out at 90.3 mph. I bet we see more 90s as he gets further away from surgery.
Hurd, 23, has a 13.4 BB% in his 30.1 innings and it’s not just the usual post-UCL surgery rust. He ran a 12.7 BB% in college. We’ll see where he’s at as he gets further away from surgery, but, right now, Hurd is one of the bigger arrow-up prospects in the system. His rehab went well and he used that time to change his pitch mix, consolidate his arsenal a bit, and find a cutter that looks like a real weapon. Hopefully now he can figure out strike-throwing.
Miscellany
I’ve got a bunch of prospect notes and thoughts I want to hit on, so let’s do that now, quick-hit style. The players are listed alphabetically.
OF Wilberson De Pena: I mentioned De Pena, the prospect the Yankees received in the Oswald Peraza trade last year, in a recent mailbag. He got some love in Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet (subs. req’d) earlier this week. Here’s part of the write-up:
In his first season stateside, he’s raised his stock considerably and has been one of the best hitters in the Florida Complex League. Scouts praise De Peña for his combination of hittability, power and remaining projection, which will help him fit wherever he lands in the outfield. More than his on-field gifts, it’s impossible to ignore De Peña’s leadership qualities during a game. He shows outstanding situational awareness, is relentlessly upbeat and is engaged from the first pitch to the last. Put it all together, and you have one of the system’s faster risers.
De Pena, 19, is hitting .352/.407/.667 (145 wRC+) with an FCL-leading 12 homers. As good as he’s been, De Pena still needs to improve his swing decisions a good deal. He doesn’t swing and miss a lot (17.5 K%), he just swings a lot. He’ll have to rein it in moving forward, otherwise more advanced pitchers will pick him apart. Still, it’s a breakout season for him.
LHP Allen Facundo: I thought the Yankees might put Facundo in the bullpen full time and let it rip, but they’ve kept him in the rotation, and the results are quite good: 3.45 ERA (3.38 FIP) with 33.8 K% and 14.1 BB% in a career high 62.2 innings between Tampa and Hudson Valley. He’s had some big strikeout games recently. A Hudson Valley franchise record tying 13 strikeouts on May 21st. 12 strikeouts on June 4th. 10 strikeouts on June 25th. Here are the videos. Facundo feels a bit trade bait-y. If he doesn’t get traded at the deadline, he’ll go on the 40-man for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes after the season.
RHP Ben Grable: The best bullpen prospect in the system has met a little more resistance in Somerset (3.10 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 31.3 K%) after manhandling Hudson Valley (1.17 ERA, 0.32 FIP, 58.6 K%). He’s a fastball heavy reliever similar to Chad Green. The Yankees have him working on a splitter to see if that takes as a second pitch (his slider is only so-so). I bet Grable, last year’s 11th round pick, finishes the season in Scranton. A big league call up would be aggressive, but not completely impossible.
RHP Chase Hampton: Hampton was Hurd’s Tommy John rehab buddy. They had surgery right around the same time and returned right around the same time. Hampton’s return has not been as encouraging as Hurd’s. He has a 6.68 ERA (5.14 FIP) with 19.9 K% and 9.9 BB% in 31 innings while getting back to Somerset. More importantly, his stuff isn’t where it was before surgery. Director of Pitching Sam Briend played the “wait for next year” card in a recent interview with Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d):
Briend said he believes Hampton’s velocity will recover and that “in a year, people are going to be like, ‘Oh, there he is. I see that guy. That’s what we knew Chase Hampton to be.’”
Hampton is still only 24 somehow (25 in August). It feels like he’s been in the system forever. The return from Tommy John is not always smooth or easy. The Yankees like Hampton enough that they put him on the 40-man in the offseason, but clearly, he’s not going to help them anytime soon. He’s a TBD prospect.
RHP Ben Hess: The numbers aren’t good (4.44 ERA, 5.56 FIP, 28.2 K%, 14.5 BB%) but the prospect pitch data nerds (I say that with affection) are buzzing about his stuff. He’s a Clarke Schmidt type in that he’s breaking balls over fastball, but Hess can really spin the baseball and has all different movement profiles. Lance Brozdowski (subs. req’d) put a Gavin Williams comp on Hess recently. Results matter to some extent, for sure, but there is definitely some “figuring out how to control stuff that moves all over the place” going on with Hess. (I know a few folks who prefer Hess to RHP Elmer Rodríguez right now.)
RHP Carlos Lagrange: The bullpen training wheels are almost all the way off. Lagrange is being used strategically rather than on a script (this many innings on this day, etc.). He got a four-out save last week, then had a disaster outing Sunday (0.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 1 K). The Yankees have de-loaded him down to 3-4 outs and 20-30 pitches or so, and only two days rest. Matt Blake has mentioned maybe using Lagrange on back-to-back days at some point, so we’ll see if/when that happens.
C Miguel Palma: Palma is not really a prospect. He’s a depth catcher the Yankees signed to a minor league deal over the winter and is hitting .180/.305/.320 (76 wRC+) while bouncing between Somerset and Scranton. I’m mentioning him only to note that he had a pinch-hit single in both games of Saturday’s doubleheader (video). Do you know who was the last minor leaguer with two pinch-hits in one day? It was … Ryan McMahon! Back in Triple-A in 2018. Baseball is a flat circle. (I have no idea who was the last MLB player with two pinch-hits in one day. Probably some NL bench dude before the universal DH.)
LHP Xavier Rivas: Rivas’ 34.7 K% is 11th in the minors among the 435 pitchers with at least 50 innings. It’s fourth among lefties. The overall numbers are not great (5.01 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 12.2 BB% in Double-A) because Rivas doesn’t have much of a fastball, but his splitter is an equalizer (video). Rivas has a dominant pitch and is said to be a very intense competitor. That gives him a chance to carve out a big league career, even if only as a second lefty in the bullpen. For a 16th round pick, that’s a pretty good outcome.
OF Wilson Rodriguez: The Yankees moved Rodriguez, my No. 26 prospect, up to Hudson Valley this year after he played only 30 games in Tampa last year, and he looked overmatched early on. He hit .169/.341/.308 (82 wRC+) in April. Since May 1st though, it’s a .296/.387/.492 (128 wRC+) line with 20.2 K% and 13.1 BB%. Rodriguez will play just about the entire season at age 21. He’s more than a year younger than the average South Atlanta League player. We don’t have Statcast data for the Sally League, but Rodriguez, a 17th round pick in 2023, has continued his upward trajectory.
Futures Game candidates
The Futures Game, MLB’s annual showcase game between AL and NL prospects, will be played Sunday, July 12th, at Citizens Bank Park. MLB really should move the Futures Game to the Wednesday after the All-Star Game to give it its own night rather than make it compete with big league games, but whatever. The rosters will be announced soon. I’m not sure when, exactly, but it’ll be sometime this week or next.
SS George Lombard Jr. represented the Yankees in last year’s Futures Game and he would have been the easy pick to do so again this year, but his recent injury probably takes him out of play. The Yankees might hold RHP Carlos Lagrange out of the Futures Game in case he’s needed in the Bronx. SS Dax Kilby has apparently been abducted by aliens. I can’t imagine he’s a Futures Game candidate.
MLB does not go super deep in the weeds with Futures Game selections. They won’t pick someone like OF Wilberson De Pena or LHP Allen Facundo. Players with big league time have played in the Futures Game, but it’s rare (Jackson Holliday did it in 2024). Maybe that means RHP Elmer Rodríguez is the pick? The Yankees could need him in the Bronx at a moment’s notice though. I bet they hold him out.
Unless Lombard comes back soon and can go, I think RHP Ben Hess is the best bet to represent the Yankees at the Futures Game. Either him or Lagrange. The sleeper pick would be LHP Henry Lalane, who is healthy and pitching well, and is a player the Yankees love very much. They could push for him to go to the Futures Game to represent the organization and really strut his stuff.
Injury updates
SS Dax Kilby is entering “does he even exist?” territory, which has been previously occupied by such luminaries as Scott Effross and Ben Rortvedt. He had the hamstring injury in Spring Training, returned to play three innings and two at-bats on May 28th, and hasn’t played since. Kilby is back on the 7-day IL. I know that much. So, he’s hurt again. How badly? How long will he be out? Beats me … SS George Lombard Jr. is still on Scranton’s 7-day IL with the finger sprains (plural) he suffered two weeks ago. No word when he’ll return. Getting injury updates on non-40-man players is like pulling teeth … OF Garrett Martin was placed on Scranton's 7-day IL on Monday. No word on the injury. I answered a mailbag question last week about Martin, who's hitting .270/.337/.570 (135 wRC+) with 24 home runs … LHP Pico Kohn, my No. 12 prospect, was placed on Hudson Valley’s 60-day IL back in April. He has a leg injury, not an arm injury. I don’t know when he’ll return, but at least it’s not his arm … And finally, RHP Yerry Rodríguez is on the 60-day IL. He’s not really a prospect but he is a minor leaguer, so I’m including him here. The Yankees signed Rodríguez to a two-year minor league deal during his Tommy John surgery rehab in the offseason and he pitched in seven games with Tampa and Hudson Valley in April, but now he’s hurt again. I don’t know if it’s the elbow again or what.
IFA news
I missed another European player signing. Francys Romero says the Yankees signed Czech OF Jan Kubelka earlier this month. No word on his signing bonus. Czechia qualified for the last two World Baseball Classics. There’s some talent there. Kubelka is the fourth European prospect the Yankees have signed this year, joining Dutch LHP Tijn Fredrikze, Hungarian C Marko Morua, and German RHP Finn Niemeyer … And finally, the Yankees reportedly offered Korean OF/LHP Hyun-Seung Ha a $3M bonus, but he turned it down because he wants to play in KBO. Ha, 18, is said to be a significant prospect. (I think he’s a 2027 international signing period kid, not 2026.) The interest in Ha jibes with the Yankees’ renewed commitment to Asia. Maybe they’ll circle back when he gets posted in however many years.
3. 2026 draft prospect: Louisville OF Zion Rose. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Rose, 21, was a catcher at his Florida high school. Louisville moved him to the outfield to make better use of his athleticism, and he’s hit and hit a lot regardless of position. An ankle injury sidelined him early this spring, but, once Rose got on the field, he slashed .417/.491/.646 (147 wRC+) with six homers and more walks (11.0%) than strikeouts (8.7%) in 36 games. Here are the most recent draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 25
ESPN: No. 57
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 24
MLB Pipeline: No. 31
Rose also performed very well in the Cape Cod League after his freshman season: .295/.364/.474 during a summer in which the league average was .251/.351/.371. The Yankees have a thing for players who perform well on the Cape, so it’s no surprise then that they’ve been linked to Rose in a few recent mock drafts. Here’s video and here’s part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):
Rose is a 6-foot-1, 200-pound righthanded hitter with plenty of strength and twitch. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination that has led to impressive contact skills dating back to his prep days … He has an overall contact rate around 84% with Louisville, and he also began hitting the ball harder as a junior. While Rose has a chance for an above-average hit tool, his game power might be contingent on some swing changes. He doesn’t elevate the ball naturally and employs a high handset and a level or downhill bat path that leads to a lot of ground balls and low line drives. Rose is at least a plus runner who has turned in 70-grade run times this spring. He’s a willing and aggressive baserunner who has stolen 65 bases in 74 tries (88%) in his college career. That speed means many scouts think he can play center field in pro ball
If not for the ankle, Rose might have been a top 15-ish pick. Now he’s seen as more of a late first rounder. Rose finished the season healthy and played very well. He also took a physical at the Draft Combine last week, so teams have updated medical info. (The physical entitles Rose to at least 75% of his draft slot. Slot for the No. 35 pick is $2,826,700 and 75% of that is $2,120,025. I don't anticipate him signing below slot anyway.)
Lots of players come out of Louisville with the same kinda downhill bat path Rose has (Will Smith hit nine homers in three years at Louisville) and, if you believe your player development folks can get him airborne, there’s a lot of upside here. Rose’s 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was strong and suggests there’s real thump waiting to be unlocked. I’m not sure he’ll make it to No. 35 but I can see him being pretty high on the Yankees’ draft board.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)