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ORIGINAL POST: Phase 2 of the All-Star Game voting closed Thursday and Ben Rice was well behind Vlad Guerrero Jr. at first base in the final update. Aaron Judge was just over the line in the outfield and Cody Bellinger was just under it. If that holds, Judge would be named a “starter” and Bellinger would replace him in the lineup as the next vote-getter. I expect the Yankees to have four All-Stars: Bellinger, Judge, Rice, and Cam Schlittler. We’ll find out for sure when the All-Star rosters are announced Saturday (7:30pm ET on FOX). Here now is today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. Even by Summer Swoon standards, this is really bad. Broadcasts around the league are already talking about how bad the Yankees have been and that usually doesn’t happen until after the All-Star break. The Yankees have lost seven straight games for the fourth time in the Aaron Boone era, and for the first time since a nine-game losing streak during the famously fun 2023 season.
“It fucking sucks. It’s a shitty feeling,” Cody Bellinger told Gary Phillips.
The Yankees are 2-10 in their last 12 games and during that time they’ve lost series to the Reds (second worst record in baseball since May 1st), at Fenway Park (the Red Sox have the worst home record in baseball), and to the Tigers at home (Detroit had the worst road record in baseball going into the series). They’ve been outscored 67-31 in the 12 games and, honestly, I can’t believe they managed 31 runs. A Summer Swoon miracle.
While the Yankees were busy losing seven straight, the Rays won seven straight, so the Yankees lost seven games in the standings in seven days. Going into Thursday’s off-day, they were five back in the loss column and the Rays held the tiebreaker (because the Yankees never take care of business against AL East rivals). This is what losing seven games in seven days does to you division odds:
Normally I would say the Yankees gotta do something to shake things up, but what can they do? They’re obviously not firing Boone. There’s no trade to be made right now. Their best young players are either hurt or already in the big leagues (and part of the problem!). They could DFA Camilo Doval after yet another meltdown Wednesday, but that won’t move the needle. Like it or not, the team is the team.
“There’s no way of sugarcoating it, we’re capable of way more,” Boone told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s loss. “Look, you have stretches where it’s tough and you’re missing some guys. But this was a really difficult week for us offensively, coupled with not playing clean enough and taking care of the ball well enough. That’s what you get. You get an awful week.”
The New York RailRiders vs. Tarik Skubal went as expected Tuesday. Skubal dominated (6 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 1 HR) and, if you care, Jon Heyman (subs. req’d) reports someone with the Yankees said there is “no chance, none” they trade for Skubal. I’m not surprised, but it’s July 3rd. Maybe leave the door open a little? Anyway, against Skubal on Tuesday, the Yankees were without …
Trent Grisham (hamstring)Aaron Judge (rib)Cody Bellinger (rest day)Giancarlo Stanton (calf)Jazz Chisholm Jr. (head)
… and those are almost literally their 1-2-3-4-5 hitters in that order. In fact, they were their 1-2-3-4-5 hitters as recently as last Sept. 15th in Minnesota. Skubal was the eighth pitcher this season to go at least six innings and hold the Yankees to one or zero hits, and the fourth to do it in an eight-game span. No other team has had more than four opposing starters go 6+ innings with no more than one hit allowed.
And yet, as bad as the offense has been, the rotation has been just as trashy. The Yankees were down 4-0 in the third inning Friday, 4-0 in the third inning Saturday, 5-0 in the second inning Monday, and 4-0 in the first inning Tuesday. Too often the starters aren’t even giving them a chance. Every single part of the team is failing. Pitching, offense, defense, whatever. The Yankees are bad at everything.
“It’s not great. Just a little lack of focus. We just gotta dial it in,” Aaron Judge told Phillips about the team’s slump before Wednesday’s loss. “Our ultimate goal is to win a World Series. I think guys gotta remember that every single day they show up here. We’re here to win a World Series. So that’s your motivation every single day you step on that field: 'No matter what happens, no matter what happened the day before, I got a job to do.'”
What an indictment of Boone, who demands basically nothing of his players and is okay getting even less than that. Following the play and backing up is not asking too much. Knowing what base to throw to is not asking too much. You watch these games. You see the carelessness and general dumbassery. We’re in Year 9 of this. It’s fair to ask if the players even play hard for Boone, and that should never ever be a question.
The Summer Swoon happens every year at the same time. This team just forgets how to play baseball for two months. The players change every year (well, not really this year) and it keeps happening. A normal team, a team with the desire to be something more than good enough, would have looked at this a long time ago and said this is a problem. We need new leadership. We can't keep doing this every season.
But with the Yankees, nothing ever changes. There was a time they were a laughing stock under George Steinbrenner because he hired and fired people so willy-nilly. The current Yankees are the total opposite of that. Endless job security. Never any urgency. It’s fine, we’ll get ‘em tomorrow or next year. It starts with Hal Steinbrenner. There’s no expectation of greatness at the top, and it trickles down to the bottom.
Judge said he’s spoken to several players individually about that lack of focus, and they’ll talk as a “bigger group” at some point. You can’t really measure a lack of focus, but giving up 23 unearned runs (excluding the automatic runner in extra innings) in the last 12 games probably does the trick. Bottom line: Good teams win games, bad teams hold meetings. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
The veterans are hurt, and the young players are terrible
It is astonishing how lifeless the offense looks. It is one bad and disinterested at-bat after another. Yes, the Yankees have injuries, but injuries don’t entirely explain what we’re watching. The Yankees had two hits before the fifth inning Thursday and that qualified as progress! As a team – as a team – the Yankees are hitting .173/.227/.289 (42 wRC+) with 29.8 K% and a pitiful 34.7% chase rate during this 2-10 stretch.
Too many veterans are injured and the young players haven’t picked up the slack. Austin Wells is literally the worst hitter in baseball. Anthony Volpe has the lowest AVG (.225) and OBP (.287) in franchise history (min. 2,000 PA). Jasson Domínguez doesn’t hit enough to make up for his defense, which is so bad he’s hurt himself (running into a wall) and a teammate (running into Chisholm) this year. It’s almost 50/50 whether Spencer Jones will make contact when he swings (41.7% whiff rate).
That’s three recent first round picks and one of the largest signing bonuses in the history of international free agency, and those four players are hitting a combined .203/.287/.314 (71 wRC+) in over 500 plate appearances. They are less a part of the future in 2026 than they were in 2025, when they were less a part of the future than they were in 2024. We’re watching a generation of touted prospects with big acquisition costs play their way out of the long-term picture and out of New York.
(Perhaps it’s unfair to loop Jones in here given his brief MLB time. He’s already 25 though, and there isn’t much belief outside the Yankees organization that he’ll hit at an acceptable level.)
Ben Rice is a massive hitter development success. He’s been horrible lately like everyone else, but he’s a 12th round pick who became a legitimate middle of the order bat. But also, as long as Rice doesn’t crash the rest of the season, he’ll become the first player to come out of the system and put up a 100 OPS+ (a modest goal!) in back-to-back seasons since Gleyber Torres eight years ago. It just isn’t enough. The Yankees are not getting enough offense from their farm system and haven’t for a long time.
(Seriously, how are the Yankees supposed to add high-end offense in the coming years? The upcoming free agent classes are terrible, and besides, other than re-signing Judge, the Yankees haven’t signed a truly elite position player free agent since Mark Teixeira. I mean actually elite. Not Bellinger or Jacoby Ellsbury elite. There won’t be any elite hitters to sign and the Yankees no longer sign those guys anyway.)
The Yankees hired a new minor league hitting coordinator, Jarrett DeHart, last offseason and it could take years to see any real improvement in hitter development. Guys bloom late all the time, but time has pretty much run out on Volpe and Wells becoming key contributors during the Judge era. They’re above-average defenders at up-the-middle positions and that’s not nothing. You’re not going far with first round pick after first round developing into glove-first bottom of the lineup guys though.
The players of course shoulder blame/credit for their careers. I’ve been saying for a while now that I’m just so disillusioned with the Yankees’ hitter development. They’re successful at developing good minor league hitters and getting prospects to MLB, but they don’t take the next step after that. So maybe it’s not a minor league hitting development thing? Maybe it’s a big league problem? Whatever it is, it’s a problem. Rice is the exception, not the rule. He’s a happy accident, not a sign of a hitter development turnaround.
Veterans are hurt and underperforming. This was a chance for the young players to shine. To show the baseball world the Yankees were right to bet on them and leave lineup spots open for them, and all they have shown is those were losing bets. Maybe George Lombard Jr. and, uh, Kaeden Kent (?) will prove to be hitter development wins and anchor the lineup in the future. I need to see it to believe it. To me, the lack of homegrown offense is the single biggest problem with the Yankees.
Schlittler slammed
Not even Cam Schlittler is powerful enough to avoid the Summer Swoon. The Tigers blasted Schlittler for the worst start of his career Tuesday: 4 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 4 HR on 85 pitches. Going back to his last start in Boston, Schlittler has given up five homers to his last 22 batters faced after giving up five homers to his first 392 batters faced this season. Home run rate regression is a bitch.
“He’s a hell of a player,” Skubal told Hoch when asked about Schlittler after the game. “He’s a really good talent. The stuff coming out of his hand is really special, and he’s proven that this year. He’s the best pitcher in the American League. Even after today’s game, I bet he still has the lowest ERA in the American League.”
Schlittler does indeed still have the lowest ERA in AL (2.08), and also the lowest FIP (2.68) and highest WAR (+3.2) as well. It sure seems like the league is catching up to the all fastballs approach though. Schlittler’s whiff rate (Miss% in this table) is trending down and his foul rate is trending up:
For context, the league averages are 25.2% whiffs, 38.0% fouls, and 18.0% non-competitive locations. A non-competitive location is defined as a pitch that is at least 18 inches from the middle of the zone. Those are obvious balls and easy takes. Schlittler is trending the wrong way across the board and he was worse than average in all three categories in June. (Whiff rate and foul rate are per swing, just to be clear.)
Schlittler threw one curveball in his four-run, 36-pitch first inning Tuesday. He threw 14 curveballs among 49 pitches the rest of the game after that, so an adjustment was made to show the Tigers something else, but it was too late to change the outcome. This is not the most surprising thing in the world, is it? Schlittler has three excellent fastballs, but Major League hitters will adjust. It’s a testament to how good his fastballs are that it took them this long.
“He throws hard and we were on time for the heater,” Kerry Carpenter, who hit the first of the four homers off Schlittler, told Hoch. “Everything else kind of flows off of that.”
Multiple attempts to develop a changeup/splitter haven’t worked. The curveball and a slider are the only non-fastballs Schlittler has in his bag. He’s thrown the slider 2% of the time this year, and he hasn’t thrown it at all since May 26th in Kansas City. It’s a legit slider too. The velocity (5 mph less than the cutter) and movement (more downward break) tell us the sliders aren’t cutters that have been misclassified.
Schlittler’s thrown the curve 7% of the time in 2026 (8.2% in April, 4.2% in May, 7.4% in June). With the league seemingly adjusting to the fastballs, it’s time to up breaking ball usage. Is Schlittler comfortable enough to throw, say, 15% curves and 10% sliders? Maybe he can get away with less than that. The fastballs are starting to get hit though. The hitters are telling us it’s time to show them something else.
“It depends on the matchup and I think it depends on the hitters and certain situations,” Schlittler told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) about throwing more curveballs. “Knowing (the Tigers) like to put the fastball in the air, that’s probably something I should have established early on … It took me 30+ starts to finally get my teeth kicked in. There are lessons to be learned from this.”
On not pinch-hitting Goldy
I get why the Yankees did it, but bunting with José Caballero in the tenth inning Wednesday was kinda dumb. The winning run was already in scoring position and Caballero was the best hitter they were gonna send to the plate that inning (Rice was getting IBBed as long as the bases weren’t loaded). The Yankees bunted to put the game in Oswaldo Cabrera’s and Ali Sánchez’s hands which, obviously, didn’t work. The bunt felt like a default setting and not something they thought through.
Before the game several players were vomiting from watching the Yankees play food poisoning and not everyone was available. I figured Paul Goldschmidt, who is slumping like everyone else (0-for-16 in his last five games) was among them because he didn’t pinch-hit for Cabrera with the winning run on third and one out after Caballero’s bunt in the tenth. Goldschmidt was available though. After the game, Boone said he wanted to stick with Cabrera.
“I have confidence that Cabrera can touch the ball too,” Boone explained to Hoch. “In extra innings, I have to put Goldy in at third or second base, which I wasn’t going to do.”
Max Schuemann was among the food-poisoned and he was unavailable, but the “I have to put Goldy in at third or second base” thing is nonsensical and sounds like Boone trying to cover for what he realizes was a bad decision. You pinch-hit Goldschmidt for Cabrera, then give up the DH and put Amed Rosario at third if you have to. The pitcher’s spot is unlikely to come up anyway (Cabrera never batted again in the game).
This isn’t second-guessing either. It was an obviously bad decision to let Cabrera hit in the moment. If Boone pinch-hits and Goldschmidt strikes out like Cabrera did, and the Yankees go on to lose the same way they did, I’d just write a little note in the Miscellany section that says “right move, didn’t work out, that’s baseball.” I love Waldo’s energy, but he can’t be your pick to hit with the game on the line.
Boone can’t swing the bat or throw the ball for his players. All he can do is use his players in a way that puts the Yankees in the best position to win, and letting Cabrera hit over Goldschmidt in that spot did not put the Yankees in the best position to win. The Yankees have lost seven straight and 10 of 12 because the players are playing poorly, and because the manager is making decisions like this.
Miscellany
Will Warren gave the Yankees the best start they’ve gotten in some time Wednesday: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HR on 79 pitches. He really, really, really leaned into his changeup, likely because the Tigers had six lefties in the starting lineup. Warren threw a career 23 changeups among his 79 pitches, or a career high 29%. Great results on it too. 12 swings, eight whiffs … Schlittler got hit so hard Tuesday that I’m not entirely sure this would have turned the L into a W, but man, Spencer Jones came this close to robbing that first home run (video):
Catch that and it’s a 1-2-3 first inning on nine pitches rather than a four-run, 36-pitch slog. Hold onto that ball and who knows what happens? To be clear, I’m not blaming Jones. That was a tough play and I don’t think it’s reasonable to say “that guy should have robbed that home run,” even if the ball was in the pocket of the glove. It’s just, damn, it would’ve been an entirely different ballgame had he held on … Jazz Chisholm Jr. scored a Rickey Run to tie the game in the ninth inning Wednesday. Infield single, steal second on the first pitch, steal third on the second pitch, score on a wild pitch (video). I wish he did it more often, but it was one of those moments that remind you Jazz can change a game in a way no one else on the roster can … Austin Wells committed another catcher interference Wednesday. He has three on the season, all since he came off the injured list two weeks ago. His confidence has to be shot given the whole “worst hitter in baseball” thing. Is it bleeding over into his catching now? Or is this just baseball randomness at play? … Max Fried got hurt on May 13th. Paul Blackburn came out of the bullpen to replace him, gave up three runs in two innings, and he’s given up three runs in 23.2 innings since. He has a 2.40 ERA (3.71 FIP and 3.62 xERA) on the season, though he’s doing it with ground balls (57.7%) rather than strikeouts (16.9%). At this point Blackburn is the fourth best reliever in the bullpen behind David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, and Brent Headrick. Nice work by Paulie Grounders, but also, this guy really shouldn’t be your fourth best reliever.
Injury updates and roster news
Aaron Judge (rib) is feeling better but still can’t do any baseball activities. He’s not ready for imaging yet. The Yankees said he’ll go for tests in 4-6 weeks and this is Week 4 … Max Fried (elbow) threw two innings in his first live BP on Tuesday. All went well and he’ll do it again Sunday. If that goes well, maybe he’ll start a rehab assignment next? … Giancarlo Stanton (calf) was not among those to hit against Fried after Boone said he would. Boone said he misspoke. Stanton is hitting in the cage but not running yet … Trent Grisham (hamstring) went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk during his rehab game with Somerset on Wednesday. He played seven innings in center field and is expected to be activated today … Ryan McMahon (infection) was among those with food poisoning and didn’t play in a rehab game as scheduled Wednesday. He played Thursday instead. I wrote and scheduled this post early Thursday so I could enjoy the off-night, so McMahon's rehab game hasn't been played yet. I can't tell you how it went. He’s expected to be activated Friday as long as all goes well. Oswaldo Cabrera will go down to open one roster spot for Grisham/McMahon. I don’t think the Yankees will send Max Schuemann or Anthony Volpe down, so either Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones will go down to open the other roster spot. We’ll see … The bullpen shuttle went from Yerry De Los Santos to Yovanny Cruz this week, then Cruz was sent down after Wednesday’s game to open a spot for David Bednar’s return from the paternity list. Cruz went six up, six down, three strikeouts on 20 pitches Tuesday. I’m the low man on him, I think he’s just an up/down middle reliever, and obviously the Yankees agree given how they’ve handled him. But damn man, maybe give the kid a chance to prove you wrong? Do we really need to see more Jake Bird? … Luis Gil (shoulder) is throwing bullpens in Tampa. I know this because he posted a video on social media. How close he is to a rehab game, I do not know … George Lombard Jr. (fingers) has started throwing and isn't too far away from rejoining Scranton. Good news … Bad news: Carlos Lagrange was placed on Scranton's 7-day IL with a shoulder injury. He'll have an MRI. That ain't great. Scratch him off the call-up list for at least a week.
Up next
Thursday’s off-day came at a good time. The Yankees are playing like crap and needed the break, plus they didn’t have to play on what was supposed to be the hottest day of his heat wave. It’ll be plenty hot this weekend, but avoiding one day is better than playing through them all. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday vs. Twins: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Mike Paredes (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday vs. Twins: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Zebby Matthews (1:30pm ET on YES)
Sunday vs. Twins: LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP Joe Ryan (1:30pm ET on Peacock)
Monday at Rays: TBA vs. TBA (6:30pm ET on YES)
(It looks like Sunday is a Peacock exclusive. Every game is on Peacock that day except the Braves vs. Mets national broadcast on NBC. It’s part of some “Star Spangled Sunday” thing.)
Monday’s TBA vs. TBA lines up to be Schlittler and Shane McClanahan. That four-game series in Tampa is monumentally important. The Yankees were five back in the loss column going into Thursday and the Rays lead the season series 4-1. Lose three of four and you’re seven back in the loss column, and the Rays have the tiebreaker. A split is the bare minimum and the Yankees really need more than that.
As for the Twins, they can hit. They’re averaging 4.88 runs per game, sixth most in baseball, and they’re hitting .246/.321/.412 (104 wRC+) as a team. Byron Buxton is hitting .287/.341/.640 (166 wRC+) with 25 homers in his last 60 games. He’s been on a rampage, though he hasn’t played since Sunday because of a little hip thing. I’m not sure what Buxton’s status is for the weekend, but he isn’t on the injured list.
Minnesota’s pitching is hit or mess, especially the bullpen, where old pal Yoendrys Gómez has taken over as their closer (3.57 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 20.7 K%). The Yankees are 127-46 (119-win pace) against the Twins since 2002, postseason included. Please keep that going this weekend.
2. 2026 draft prospect: California HS SS/RHP Archer Horn. The 2026 MLB Draft will take place the weekend before the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 35 pick. As I do every year, I’ll preview prospects the Yankees are said to have interest in, players who fit the team’s M.O., and players I like for whatever reason. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already covered.
Horn, 18, is a legitimate two-way prospect who is expected to play both ways at Stanford. This spring, he hit .406/.576/.826 and struck out 14 batters in 4.2 innings. Horn’s father, Howard, was an All-Ivy Team pitcher at Princeton back in the late 1990s. Here’s where he sits in the most recent draft rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 50
ESPN: No. 51
FanGraphs: Outside top 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 46
MLB Pipeline: No. 67
In a recent draft buzz piece (subs. req’d), Carlos Collazo said Horn is a late riser who is getting Dax Kilby comps, and he's connected to teams in the 20-40-ish pick range. That seems like a pretty good reason to spotlight him, so here we are. Here’s video and here’s part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d), which is most informative:
Horn is a standout athlete and legitimate two-way player whom most MLB teams seem to prefer as a position player for his well-rounded set of tools. He has a lean, 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame and does a nice job keeping his hands inside the baseball with a quick and simple lefthanded swing. Horn has solid feel for the barrel, but he will need to make a bit more contact versus quality breaking pitches. He does a nice job using the entire field and is currently more of a hit-first offensive player who can wear out both gaps, but he has flashed enough power in batting practice and has further physical projection remaining to dream of at least average game power in the future. Horn is an average runner who can turn in some above-average times, but he’s a much better athlete than his pure speed indicates, with the actions to stick at shortstop. Horn has solid hands and body control, and his plus arm will definitely give him a chance to stick on the left side of the infield, perhaps at third base if he moves off short. As a pitcher, Horn has a quick arm and a fastball that regularly gets into the low 90s and has been up to 94-95 mph. He throws a changeup around 80 mph as his go-to secondary pitch, and he creates solid depth with an upper-70s curveball with high spin rates around 2,500 rpm.
I don’t know if the Yankees would let Horn be a two-way player in pro ball. They let Josh Tiedemann, their 2023 13th rounder, do it in 2024 and 2025, but it went poorly (Tiedemann neither hit nor pitched well), and now he’s a full-time reliever. Doing it with a roll of the dice 13th rounder is different than doing it with your top pick, who you’re going to pay millions of dollars (Tiedemann got a slot $150,000 bonus).
Stanford commitments can be tough to break, though that’s something that gets squared away before the pick even gets made these days. The days of drafting a guy and hoping you can sign him are over. Teams have an agreement in place before the pick is made, definitely early in the draft. Slot for the No. 35 pick is $2,826,700. The Yankees could easily stretch that to $3.5M or so, possibly even $4M.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Carlos Lagrange and George Lombard Jr. were named to the Futures Game earlier this week. Here are the rosters. Lagrange was named to the roster before his shoulder injury popped up, so we can probably scratch him from the Futures Game. Lombard has started throwing as he recovers from the finger strains (plural). If he’s not fully recovered in time for the Futures Game next Sunday, he won’t play, but I think the fact he’s on the roster is good news. He wouldn’t have been included if there was no chance he’d play … And finally, we have info on the MLBPA’s latest CBA proposal at CBS. They proposed one of my biggest wants: 60-day IL in the offseason. I wrote a Commissioner for a Day thing during the last lockout, and included it in there. It makes too much sense not to happen. Everyone benefits, teams (more flexibility) and players (more 40-man roster spots). It’s not like the owners have to pay players in the offseason anyway.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Jon asks: Apparently Ben rice is trying to pull everything during his slump. Shouldn't he be told to try to go to the opposite field - especially on outside pitches, but also using an inside out swing like Derek Jeter used on pitches middle in? Isn't his good advice for every hitter, especially those in a slump?
Easier said than done. If it was as easy as telling a player to inside-out inside pitches and take everything else the other way, Derek Jeter wouldn’t have been a special player. Rice’s pull rate in June (47.2%) was down a bit from April/May (49.3%). The bigger problem is chasing out of the zone and swinging at bad pitches, which has led to more strikeouts and more weak contact. I’ve heard the best thing a slumping hitter can do is treat every pitch like a 3-1 pitch until you get to two strikes. Wait for your pitch and be ready for it, otherwise take it. That helps the hitter swing at the right pitches and also draw some walks along the way, something Rice hasn’t done much lately. As good as he is, Rice is not exactly an elegant hitter. Pulling the ball in the air is his thing, and when he stops trying to do that, he does exactly what the other team wants him to do. They’re happy if he slaps the ball the other way. That is minimal damage, especially given his lack of speed and the lack of thump behind him right now.
Anthony asks: I really like Miguel Vargas as a trade target but I doubt he’d be available. In a potential Jeffers trade - what about Ryan Kreidler as a secondary piece?
Yeah, I don’t see Vargas being available. The White Sox are in contention, he’s their best player, and he’s under team control through 2029. Vargas is a keeper and someone they’ll build around, but for sure, he would fit nicely with the Yankees as a righty bat who can play an average-ish third base (+0 DRS and +1 OAA) even if it doesn’t always look smooth or natural.
Kreidler, 28, is an interesting dude. He’s hitting .279/.353/.490 (134 wRC+) with 18.1 K% this year after hitting .138/.208/.176 (11 wRC+) with 31.8 K% as an up/down depth guy the last few years. His bat speed has skyrocketed from well below average to well above average this season …
Average bat speed: 69.6 mph (2024-25) to 74.5 mph (2026)
Fast swing rate (i.e. 72 mph swings): 6.1% (2024-25) to 46.2% (2026)
… and his contact quality has improved too. Kreidler is out over his skis a little bit with that slash line, but the under-the-hood numbers (.240 xAVG, .435 xSLG, .330 xwOBA) are solid. Sam Caulder noted Kreidler has changed his stance and moved deeper in the batter’s box this year. For what it’s worth, Kreidler said he’s not trying to swing harder. He just cleaned up some things in his swing.
“I would guess it’s mostly just the efficiency and mentality," he told Matthew Leach when asked about his success last week. "Putting myself in a good position to get my swing off more often. With the mentality of, I’m getting it off. It’s everything.”
Kreidler’s a right-handed hitter and a natural infielder who’s added the outfield to his bag in recent years. The Twins use him as a super utility guy. He’s played shortstop, third base, left field, and center field for them (he’s played second base in the past) and is in the lineup everyday somewhere. We’ll see Kreidler this weekend and get a chance to judge his defense and everything else ourselves.
Lots of people, myself included, tend to go overboard with these “he made swing changes and now he’s great” guys. Sometimes it lasts forever and you get a J.D. Martinez or a Justin Turner. More often it’s not sticky and is a short-term thing. The league adjusts, then the player has to reinvent himself again to adjust back. It's hard. Trade for Kreidler now and you’re buying high, and I’m at least a tiny little bit skeptical how long this will last.
The roster fit (righty bat who can play all over) is obvious and, honestly, I’d take the risk and try to involve Kreidler in a potential Ryan Jeffers trade. If it doesn’t work and you have to walk away in a year or two, fine, but he’s a controllable player who could potentially help the Yankees at several positions. I bet the cost isn’t sky high. You can’t sit around waiting for the perfect player. I say roll the dice.
Mike asks: Shouldn’t the Yankees trade for Jeffers asap so he can get a headstart on learning the pitchers?
Yes, that would be ideal, though obviously it takes two to tango. The Twins may not be ready to move him. They may want Ryan Jeffers to get back on the field, show he’s healthy, then start a bidding war. In theory though, absolutely, you want him as soon as possible. He’s taking dry swings as part of his hamate surgery rehab and he’s been catching bullpens. Jeffers can do that to get familiar with the pitching staff (they use the Trajekt hitting machine for this too), plus he can sit in on meetings.
I mentioned this a few weeks ago and it bears repeating: I’m not sure there will be a huge bidding war for Jeffers because so many contenders are set behind the plate. The Astros (Yainer Diaz), Athletics (Shea Langeliers), Blue Jays (Alejandro Kirk), Braves (Drake Baldwin), Brewers (William Contreras), Cubs (Carson Kelly), Diamondbacks (Gabriel Moreno), Dodgers (Will Smith), Mariners (Cal Raleigh), Phillies (J.T. Realmuto), Orioles (Adley Rutschman), and Tigers (Dillon Dingler) all have their catcher.
That leaves the Padres, Rangers, and maybe the Rays as competition for Jeffers. Maybe the Pirates too, but Endy Rodríguez is hitting and Henry Davis is Paul Skenes’ personal catcher. An injury at a position known for injuries could change the market in an instant. Right now though, I don’t see too many teams that need Jeffers, and at the end of the day, it’s not about what the player is worth. It’s about what teams will give up for him. Between a potentially meh bidding war and the hamate, Jeffers may not be expensive at all.
Will asks: Might not move the needle a lot but doesn't Torrens seem like a guy the yankees end up adding? Regarded as a great defender and he hits right handed, hits roughly 250 against lefties which could be a decent platoon option if some of the bigger names fall through
The Mets just gave Luis Torrens a two-year, $11.5M extension. I assume they’re keeping him. Had you asked me about him a few weeks ago, I would’ve said Torrens is the kinda catcher (good defender and decent against lefties, plus they’ve had him in the system and know him well) I expect the Yankees to pursue at the deadline, but I think things have gotten so bad that they know they have to aim higher, and will make a serious pursuit of Ryan Jeffers. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, this is just me being stupidly hopeful. I suppose the good – “good” – news is the bar has been set on the floor behind the plate, so it won’t take much to qualify as an upgrade. That said, aim high when high is available.
Matthew asks: In a magical video game world in which the Yanks meaningfully upgrade at 3B, any chance of McMahon becoming a DFA candidate if he’s otherwise unmovable? TBC, I'd much rather he regress to simply "below average" offensively and be a useful piece.
I’ve mentioned this before and I don’t know why it is, but $27M is the sweet spot for dead money for the Yankees. Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu, and Alex Rodriguez were all released with $27M or so remaining on their contracts. It could just be a giant coincidence. I don’t know why, but they keep landing on $27M for whatever reason. Ryan McMahon is beyond that point already. The Yankees owe him about $24M through the end of next year. That puts him into “release candidate” territory. I assume the Yankees would try to trade him before doing that, even if only as a salary offset in a larger trade. They would have to bring in a better third baseman before entertaining the idea anyway. McMahon’s glove is solid and he’ll put the occasional ball in the seats against righties. He’s not a total zero the way Hicks, A-Rod, et al had become by the end. I’m not optimistic the Yankees will add a new infielder at the deadline, in which case the earliest the release discussion begins is in the offseason.
Anonymous asks: I know the Yankees would just replace Boone with Ausmus if they fire him, but is there any chance they bring in Girardi as the interim?
No, there’s no chance it happens, and I’m not even sure Joe Girardi wants to manage at this point. He’s 61 and he’s got a pretty sweet part-time gig with YES. There’s definitely some revisionist history going on with Girardi out there on the internet too. The 2017 Yankees were fun and exceeded expectations, but they underperformed their run differential (and BaseRuns) by nine games in part because Girardi never adjusted his bullpen strategy. Brian Cashman had to trade Tyler Clippard away to get Girardi to stop using him in high leverage situations. Also, Girardi managed after the Yankees. He went to the Phillies, they underperformed for 2.5 years, then they fired him midseason and immediately went on a run that took them to the World Series. Girardi’s time with the Phillies and his last few years with the Yankees showed he was past his prime as a manager. Moving on from Girardi wasn’t a mistake. The mistake was giving the reins to the inexperienced Aaron Boone.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)